Hannes Hagström

Fibrosis stage is the strongest predictor for disease-specific mortality in NAFLD after up to 33 years of follow-up

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease in the Western world, strongly associated with insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, i.e., fatty liver accompanied by necroinflammatory changes, is mostly defined by the NAFLD activity score (NAS). The aim of the current study was to determine disease‐specific mortality in NAFLD, and evaluate the NAS and fibrosis stage as prognostic markers for overall and disease‐specific mortality. In a cohort study, data from 229 well‐characterized patients with biopsy‐proven NAFLD were collected. Mean follow‐up was 26.4 (±5.6, range 6‐33) years. A reference population was obtained from the National Registry of Population, and information on time and cause of death were obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. NAFLD patients had an increased mortality compared with the reference population (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29, confidence interval [CI] 1.04‐1.59, P = 0.020), with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (HR 1.55, CI 1.11‐2.15, P = 0.01), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 6.55, CI 2.14‐20.03, P = 0.001), infectious disease (HR 2.71, CI 1.02‐7.26, P = 0.046), and cirrhosis (HR 3.2, CI 1.05‐9.81, P = 0.041). Overall mortality was not increased in patients with NAS 5‐8 and fibrosis stage 0‐2 (HR 1.41, CI 0.97‐2.06, P = 0.07), whereas patients with fibrosis stage 3‐4, irrespective of NAS, had increased mortality (HR 3.3, CI 2.27‐4.76, P < 0.001). Conclusion: NAFLD patients have increased risk of death, with a high risk of death from cardiovascular disease and liver‐related disease. The NAS was not able to predict overall mortality, whereas fibrosis stage predicted both overall and disease‐specific mortality. (Hepatology 2015;61:1547–1554)

Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Systematic review and meta‐analysis

Liver fibrosis is the most important predictor of mortality in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Quantitative risk of mortality by fibrosis stage has not been systematically evaluated. We aimed to quantify the fibrosis stage–specific risk of all‐cause and liver‐related mortality in NAFLD. Through a systematic review and meta‐analysis, we identified five adult NAFLD cohort studies reporting fibrosis stage–specific mortality (0‐4). Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, fibrosis stage–specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all‐cause and liver‐related mortality were estimated. The study is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses statement. Included were 1,495 NAFLD patients with 17,452 patient years of follow‐up. Compared to NAFLD patients with no fibrosis (stage 0), NAFLD patients with fibrosis were at an increased risk for all‐cause mortality, and this risk increased with increases in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.58 (95% CI 1.19‐2.11); stage 2, MRR = 2.52 (95% CI 1.85‐3.42); stage 3, MRR = 3.48 (95% CI 2.51‐4.83); and stage 4, MRR = 6.40 (95% CI 4.11‐9.95). The results were more pronounced as the risk of liver‐related mortality increased exponentially with each increase in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.41 (95% CI 0.17‐11.95); stage 2, MRR = 9.57 (95% CI 1.67‐54.93); stage 3, MRR = 16.69 (95% CI 2.92‐95.36); and stage 4, MRR = 42.30 (95% CI 3.51‐510.34). Limitations of the study include an inability to adjust for comorbid conditions or demographics known to impact fibrosis progression in NAFLD and the inclusion of patients with simple steatosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis without fibrosis in the reference comparison group. Conclusion: The risk of liver‐related mortality increases exponentially with increase in fibrosis stage; these data have important implications in assessing the utility of each stage and benefits of regression of fibrosis from one stage to another. (Hepatology 2017;65:1557‐1565).

Fibrosis stage but not NASH predicts mortality and time to development of severe liver disease in biopsy-proven NAFLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is very common in the general population, but identifying patients with increased risk of mortality and liver-specific morbidity remains a challenge. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is thought to enhance this risk; therefore, resolution of NASH is a major endpoint in current pharmacologic studies. Herein, we aim to investigate the long-term prognosis of a large cohort of NAFLD patients, and to study the specific effect of NASH and fibrosis stage on prognosis. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 646 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients. Each case was matched for age, sex and municipality to ten controls. Outcomes on mortality and severe liver disease, defined as cirrhosis, liver decompensation/failure or hepatocellular carcinoma, were evaluated using population-based registers. Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex and type 2 diabetes were used to examine the long-term risk according to fibrosis stage. Likelihood ratio tests were used to assess whether adding NASH to these models increased the predictive capacity. Laplace regression was used to estimate the time to severe liver disease according to stage of fibrosis. RESULTS During a follow-up of mean 20years (range 0-40) equivalent to 139,163 person-years, 12% of NAFLD patients and 2.2% of controls developed severe liver disease (p<0.001). Compared to controls, the risk of severe liver disease increased per stage of fibrosis (hazard ratio ranging from 1.9 in F0 to 104.9 in F4). Accounting for the presence of NASH did not change these estimates significantly (likelihood ratio test >0.05 for all stages of fibrosis). Similar results were seen for overall mortality. The lower end of the 95% confidence interval for the 10th percentile of time to development of severe liver disease was 22-26years in F0-1, 9.3years in F2, 2.3years in F3, and 0.9years to liver decompensation in F4. CONCLUSIONS In this, the largest ever study of biopsy-proven NAFLD, the presence of NASH did not increase the risk of liver-specific morbidity or overall mortality. Knowledge of time to development of severe liver disease according to fibrosis stage can be used in individual patient counselling and for public health decisions. LAY SUMMARY Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is very common in the general population, but reaching an accurate prognosis remains challenging. We investigate the long-term prognosis of a large cohort of NAFLD patients. In this, the largest ever study of biopsy-proven NAFLD, the presence of NASH did not increase the risk of liver-specific morbidity or overall mortality. Knowledge of time to development of severe liver disease according to fibrosis stage can be used in individual patient counselling and for public health decisions.

Overweight in late adolescence predicts development of severe liver disease later in life: A 39 years follow-up study

BACKGROUND & AIMS The increased prevalence of overweight has been suggested to contribute to the worldwide increase in liver diseases. We investigated if body mass index (BMI) in late adolescence predicts development of severe liver disease later in life. METHODS We performed a cohort study using data from 44,248 men (18-20years) conscribed to military service in Sweden between 1969 and 1970. Outcome data were collected from national registers to identify any diagnosis of severe liver disease (i.e., diagnosis of decompensated liver disease, cirrhosis or death in liver disease) until the end of 2009. A Cox regression model was applied using BMI as independent variable. The model was adjusted for use of alcohol, use of narcotics, smoking, high blood pressure and cognitive ability at time of conscription. RESULTS During a follow-up period of a mean of 37.8years, 393 men were diagnosed with severe liver disease (mean time to diagnosis 24.7years). BMI (Hazard ratio [HR]=1.05 for each unit increase in BMI, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.09, p=0.008) and overweight (HR=1.64 for BMI 25-30 compared to BMI 18.5-22.5, 95% CI: 1.16-2.32, p=0.006) were associated with an increased risk of development of severe liver disease. CONCLUSIONS Being overweight in late adolescence is a significant predictor of severe liver disease later in life in men. LAY SUMMARY We investigated close to 45,000 Swedish men in their late teens enlisted for conscription in 1969-1970. After almost 40years of follow-up, we found that being overweight was a risk factor for developing severe liver disease, independent of established risk factors such as alcohol consumption.

Adverse outcomes of pregnancy in women with non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered the most common liver disease in the world, but little is known about its potential association with pregnancy outcomes. We aimed to investigate pregnancy outcomes in NAFLD.

Efficacy and Safety of Mycophenolate Mofetil and Tacrolimus as Second-line Therapy for Patients With Autoimmune Hepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Predniso(lo)ne, alone or in combination with azathioprine, is the standard‐of‐care (SOC) therapy for autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). However, the SOC therapy is poorly tolerated or does not control disease activity in up to 20% of patients. We assessed the efficacy of mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and tacrolimus as second‐line therapy for patients with AIH. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of data (from 19 centers in Europe, the United States, Canada, and China) from 201 patients with AIH who received second‐line therapy (121 received MMF and 80 received tacrolimus), for a median of 62 months (range, 6–190 mo). Patients were categorized according to their response to SOC. Patients in group 1 (n = 108) had a complete response to the SOC, but were switched to second‐line therapy as a result of side effects of predniso(lo)ne or azathioprine, whereas patients in group 2 (n = 93) had not responded to SOC. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the proportion of patients with a complete response to MMF (69.4%) vs tacrolimus (72.5%) (P = .639). In group 1, MMF and tacrolimus maintained a biochemical remission in 91.9% and 94.1% of patients, respectively (P = .682). Significantly more group 2 patients given tacrolimus compared with MMF had a complete response (56.5% vs 34%, respectively; P = .029) There were similar proportions of liver‐related deaths or liver transplantation among patients given MMF (13.2%) vs tacrolimus (10.3%) (log‐rank, P = .472). Ten patients receiving MMF (8.3%) and 10 patients receiving tacrolimus (12.5%) developed side effects that required therapy withdrawal. CONCLUSIONS: Long‐term therapy with MMF or tacrolimus generally was well tolerated by patients with AIH. The agents were equally effective in previous complete responders who did not tolerate SOC therapy. Tacrolimus led to a complete response in a greater proportion of previous nonresponder patients compared with MMF.

Alcohol consumption in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis

AIM To assess the alcohol drinking patterns in a cohort of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) patients and the possible influence on the development of fibrosis. METHODS Ninety-six patients with PSC were evaluated with a validated questionnaire about a patients lifetime drinking habits: the lifetime drinking history (LDH) questionnaire. In addition, clinical status, transient elastography and biochemistry values were analysed and registered. Patients were defined as having either significant or non-significant fibrosis. Significant fibrosis was defined as either an elastography value of ≥ 17.3 kPa or the presence of clinical signs of cirrhosis. Patients were divided into two groups depending on their alcohol consumption patterns; no/low alcohol consumption (one drink or unit/d) and moderate/high alcohol consumption (≥ 1 drink or unit/d). LDH data were calculated to estimate lifetime alcohol intake (LAI), current alcohol intake, drinks per year before and after diagnosis of PSC. We also calculated the number of episodes of binge-drinking (defined as consuming ≥ 5 drinks per occasion) in total, before and after the diagnosis of PSC. RESULTS The mean LAI was 3882 units of alcohol, giving a mean intake after onset of alcohol consumption of 2.6 units per week. Only 9% of patients consumed alcohol equal to or more than one unit per day. Current alcohol intake in patients with significant fibrosis (n = 26) was less than in patients without significant fibrosis (n = 70), as shown by lower values of phosphatidylethanol (B-PEth) (0.1 μmol/L vs 0.33 μmol/L, respectively, P = 0.002) and carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) (0.88% vs 1.06%, respectively, P = 0.02). Self-reported LAI was similar between the two groups. Patients with significant fibrosis reduced their alcohol intake after diagnosis from 103 to 88 units per year whereas patients without fibrosis increased their alcohol intake after PSC diagnosis from 111 to 151 units/year. There were no correlations between elastography values and intake of alcohol (units/year) (r = -0.036). CONCLUSION PSC patients have low alcohol consumption. The lack of correlation between fibrosis and alcohol intake indicates that a low alcohol intake is safe in these patients.

Low to moderate lifetime alcohol consumption is associated with less advanced stages of fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Abstract Background and aim: Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with a lower risk of disease severity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is unclear if this reflects current or lifetime drinking, or can be attributed to confounders such as diet and exercise. We evaluated the impact of lifetime alcohol consumption on fibrosis severity in NAFLD. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 120 subjects with biopsy-proven NAFLD and through detailed questionnaires examined lifetime alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Main outcome measures were odds ratios (OR) for fibrosis stage, calculated through ordinal regression after adjustment for body mass index, diabetes mellitus type 2, smoking and age at biopsy. A biomarker for recent alcohol consumption, phosphatidyl ethanol (PEth) was sampled. Results: An increase in median weekly alcohol consumption to a maximum of 13 drinks per week was associated with lower fibrosis stage (adjusted OR for each incremental unit, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76–0.97; p = .017). The lowest risk for fibrosis was found with the lowes`t odds seen in the top quartile of alcohol consumption (aOR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08–0.66; p = .006). Adding soft drink and coffee consumptions, and physical activity to the model did not change the estimates. Subjects with PEth ≥0.3 μmol/L had higher ORs for a higher fibrosis stage (aOR 2.77; 95% CI 1.01–7.59; p = .047). Conclusion: Lifetime alcohol consumption with up to 13 units per week is associated with lower fibrosis stage in NAFLD. Elevated PEth is associated with higher stages of fibrosis.

SAF score and mortality in NAFLD after up to 41 years of follow-up

Abstract Background and aims: A new score for the histological severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), called SAF (Steatosis, Activity and Fibrosis) has been developed. We aimed to evaluate the impact of this score on overall mortality. Methods: We used data from 139 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. All biopsies were graded according to the SAF scoring system and disease severity was classified as mild, moderate or severe. Causes of death were extracted from a national, population-based register. A Cox regression model, adjusted for sex, body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus type 2, was applied. Results: At baseline 35 patients presented with mild or moderate disease respectively, and 69 patients with severe disease. During follow-up (median 25.3 years, range 1.7–40.8) 74 patients died, 11 in the mild group (31%), 18 in the moderate group (51%) and 45 in the severe group (65%), p = .002. Compared to patients with mild disease, patients with moderate disease did not have a significant increase in overall mortality (HR 1.83, 95%CI 0.89–3.77, p = .10). Patients with severe disease had a significant increase in mortality (HR 2.65, 95%CI 1.19–5.93, p = .017). However, when adjusting for fibrosis stage, significance was lost (HR 1.85, 95%CI 0.76–4.54, p = .18). NASH, defined as per the FLIP algorithm, was not associated with mortality compared to not having NASH (HR 1.46, 95%CI 0.74–2.90, p = .28). Conclusions: After adjustment for fibrosis, the SAF score was not associated with increased mortality in NAFLD. This finding should be corroborated in larger cohorts with similar follow-up time.

Elevated serum ferritin is associated with increased mortality in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease after 16 years of follow-up

High levels of ferritin in patients with non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are associated with significant fibrosis and higher NAFLD activity score (NAS). It is unclear if this association has an impact on mortality. We investigated if high levels of ferritin, with or without iron overload, were associated with an increased mortality in NAFLD.