Mattias Ekstedt

Long-term follow-up of patients with NAFLD and elevated liver enzymes.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of elevated liver enzymes in patients of developed countries. We determined the long‐term clinical and histological courses of such patients. In a cohort study, 129 consecutively enrolled patients diagnosed with biopsy‐proven NAFLD were reevaluated. Survival and causes of death were compared with a matched reference population. Living NAFLD patients were offered repeat liver biopsy and clinical and biochemical investigation. Mean follow‐up (SD) was 13.7 (1.3) years. Mortality was not increased in patients with steatosis. Survival of patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) was reduced (P = .01). These subjects more often died from cardiovascular (P = .04) and liver‐related (P = .04) causes. Seven patients (5.4%) developed end‐stage liver disease, including 3 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. The absence of periportal fibrosis at baseline had a negative predictive value of 100% in predicting liver‐related complications. At follow‐up, 69 of 88 patients had diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance. Progression of liver fibrosis occurred in 41%. These subjects more often had a weight gain exceeding 5 kg (P = .02), they were more insulin resistant (P = .04), and they exhibited more pronounced hepatic fatty infiltration (P = .03) at follow‐up. In conclusion, NAFLD with elevated liver enzymes is associated with a clinically significant risk of developing end‐stage liver disease. Survival is lower in patients with NASH. Most NAFLD patients will develop diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance in the long term. Progression of liver fibrosis is associated with more pronounced insulin resistance and significant weight gain. (HEPATOLOGY 2006;44:865–873.)

Fibrosis stage is the strongest predictor for disease-specific mortality in NAFLD after up to 33 years of follow-up

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease in the Western world, strongly associated with insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, i.e., fatty liver accompanied by necroinflammatory changes, is mostly defined by the NAFLD activity score (NAS). The aim of the current study was to determine disease‐specific mortality in NAFLD, and evaluate the NAS and fibrosis stage as prognostic markers for overall and disease‐specific mortality. In a cohort study, data from 229 well‐characterized patients with biopsy‐proven NAFLD were collected. Mean follow‐up was 26.4 (±5.6, range 6‐33) years. A reference population was obtained from the National Registry of Population, and information on time and cause of death were obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. NAFLD patients had an increased mortality compared with the reference population (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29, confidence interval [CI] 1.04‐1.59, P = 0.020), with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (HR 1.55, CI 1.11‐2.15, P = 0.01), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR 6.55, CI 2.14‐20.03, P = 0.001), infectious disease (HR 2.71, CI 1.02‐7.26, P = 0.046), and cirrhosis (HR 3.2, CI 1.05‐9.81, P = 0.041). Overall mortality was not increased in patients with NAS 5‐8 and fibrosis stage 0‐2 (HR 1.41, CI 0.97‐2.06, P = 0.07), whereas patients with fibrosis stage 3‐4, irrespective of NAS, had increased mortality (HR 3.3, CI 2.27‐4.76, P < 0.001). Conclusion: NAFLD patients have increased risk of death, with a high risk of death from cardiovascular disease and liver‐related disease. The NAS was not able to predict overall mortality, whereas fibrosis stage predicted both overall and disease‐specific mortality. (Hepatology 2015;61:1547–1554)

Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Systematic review and meta‐analysis

Liver fibrosis is the most important predictor of mortality in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Quantitative risk of mortality by fibrosis stage has not been systematically evaluated. We aimed to quantify the fibrosis stage–specific risk of all‐cause and liver‐related mortality in NAFLD. Through a systematic review and meta‐analysis, we identified five adult NAFLD cohort studies reporting fibrosis stage–specific mortality (0‐4). Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, fibrosis stage–specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all‐cause and liver‐related mortality were estimated. The study is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses statement. Included were 1,495 NAFLD patients with 17,452 patient years of follow‐up. Compared to NAFLD patients with no fibrosis (stage 0), NAFLD patients with fibrosis were at an increased risk for all‐cause mortality, and this risk increased with increases in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.58 (95% CI 1.19‐2.11); stage 2, MRR = 2.52 (95% CI 1.85‐3.42); stage 3, MRR = 3.48 (95% CI 2.51‐4.83); and stage 4, MRR = 6.40 (95% CI 4.11‐9.95). The results were more pronounced as the risk of liver‐related mortality increased exponentially with each increase in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.41 (95% CI 0.17‐11.95); stage 2, MRR = 9.57 (95% CI 1.67‐54.93); stage 3, MRR = 16.69 (95% CI 2.92‐95.36); and stage 4, MRR = 42.30 (95% CI 3.51‐510.34). Limitations of the study include an inability to adjust for comorbid conditions or demographics known to impact fibrosis progression in NAFLD and the inclusion of patients with simple steatosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis without fibrosis in the reference comparison group. Conclusion: The risk of liver‐related mortality increases exponentially with increase in fibrosis stage; these data have important implications in assessing the utility of each stage and benefits of regression of fibrosis from one stage to another. (Hepatology 2017;65:1557‐1565).

Alcohol consumption is associated with progression of hepatic fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Objective. Moderate alcohol consumption has been reported to be inversely associated with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. The importance of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing and many NAFLD patients suffer from cardiovascular disease. In these patients, moderate alcohol consumption could be beneficial. The aim of this study was to investigate whether low alcohol intake, consistent with the diagnosis of NAFLD, is associated with fibrosis progression in established NAFLD. Material and methods. Seventy-one patients originally referred because of chronically elevated liver enzymes and diagnosed with biopsy-proven NAFLD were re-evaluated. A validated questionnaire combined with an oral interview was used to assess weekly alcohol consumption and the frequency of episodic drinking. Significant fibrosis progression in NAFLD was defined as progression of more than one fibrosis stage or development of endstage liver disease during follow-up. Results. Mean follow-up (SD) was 13.8 (1.2) years between liver biopsies. At follow-up, 17 patients (24%) fulfilled the criteria for significant fibrosis progression. The proportion of patients reporting heavy episodic drinking at least once a month was higher among those with significant fibrosis progression (p=0.003) and a trend towards higher weekly alcohol consumption was also seen (p=0.061). In a multivariate binary logistic regression analysis, heavy episodic drinking (p<0.001) and insulin resistance (p<0.01) were independently associated with significant fibrosis progression. Conclusions. Moderate alcohol consumption, consistent with the diagnosis of NAFLD to be set, is associated with fibrosis progression in NAFLD. These patients should be advised to refrain from heavy episodic drinking.

Semiquantitative evaluation overestimates the degree of steatosis in liver biopsies: a comparison to stereological point counting.

The degree of steatosis in liver biopsies is usually assessed by a morphological semiquantitative approach in which the histopathologist uses a four-graded scale: 0–3 or none, slight, moderate and severe. Scores 1–3 are considered to correspond to fat deposition in <33, 33–66 and >66% of the hepatocytes. There is a considerable inter- and intra-individual variation in such scoring methods and a more standardized and quantitative approach is preferable. In the present study, we compare the semiquantitative technique with the stereological point counting method in the assessment of hepatic steatosis. A total of 75 archived liver needle biopsies were used. They were selected according to the original routine diagnosis of slight, moderate or severe steatosis. In all, 10 randomly selected images from each biopsy were digitized into a computer, a point grid lattice was superimposed and the number of hits on fat globules was counted. A pathologist scored the specimens in a four-graded scale as described above. The mean liver biopsy area (volume) with fat in hepatocytes was 2.2% for grade 1, 9.2% for grade 2 and 23.1% for grade 3. The kappa value for the semiquantitative estimates was 0.71 for the unweigthed kappa and 0.87 for weighted kappa. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.99 for images counted twice and 0.95 when two sets of images were captured from the same biopsy. These ICCs indicate excellent agreement and above that of the semiquantitative estimates. In conclusion, the area/volume of fat content of the hepatocytes is greatly overemphasized in semiquantitative estimation. Furthermore, the point counting technique has a better reproducibility than visual evaluation and should be preferred in estimates of liver steatosis in scientific studies and in clinical contexts when the amount of steatosis is important for treatment and prognosis, such as liver transplantation.

Fibrosis stage but not NASH predicts mortality and time to development of severe liver disease in biopsy-proven NAFLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is very common in the general population, but identifying patients with increased risk of mortality and liver-specific morbidity remains a challenge. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is thought to enhance this risk; therefore, resolution of NASH is a major endpoint in current pharmacologic studies. Herein, we aim to investigate the long-term prognosis of a large cohort of NAFLD patients, and to study the specific effect of NASH and fibrosis stage on prognosis. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 646 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients. Each case was matched for age, sex and municipality to ten controls. Outcomes on mortality and severe liver disease, defined as cirrhosis, liver decompensation/failure or hepatocellular carcinoma, were evaluated using population-based registers. Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex and type 2 diabetes were used to examine the long-term risk according to fibrosis stage. Likelihood ratio tests were used to assess whether adding NASH to these models increased the predictive capacity. Laplace regression was used to estimate the time to severe liver disease according to stage of fibrosis. RESULTS During a follow-up of mean 20years (range 0-40) equivalent to 139,163 person-years, 12% of NAFLD patients and 2.2% of controls developed severe liver disease (p<0.001). Compared to controls, the risk of severe liver disease increased per stage of fibrosis (hazard ratio ranging from 1.9 in F0 to 104.9 in F4). Accounting for the presence of NASH did not change these estimates significantly (likelihood ratio test >0.05 for all stages of fibrosis). Similar results were seen for overall mortality. The lower end of the 95% confidence interval for the 10th percentile of time to development of severe liver disease was 22-26years in F0-1, 9.3years in F2, 2.3years in F3, and 0.9years to liver decompensation in F4. CONCLUSIONS In this, the largest ever study of biopsy-proven NAFLD, the presence of NASH did not increase the risk of liver-specific morbidity or overall mortality. Knowledge of time to development of severe liver disease according to fibrosis stage can be used in individual patient counselling and for public health decisions. LAY SUMMARY Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is very common in the general population, but reaching an accurate prognosis remains challenging. We investigate the long-term prognosis of a large cohort of NAFLD patients. In this, the largest ever study of biopsy-proven NAFLD, the presence of NASH did not increase the risk of liver-specific morbidity or overall mortality. Knowledge of time to development of severe liver disease according to fibrosis stage can be used in individual patient counselling and for public health decisions.

Low clinical relevance of the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS) in predicting fibrosis progression

Abstract Background/Aims. The nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score (NAS) is a newly proposed system to grade the necroinflammatory activity in liver biopsies of NAFLD patients. This study evaluates the usefulness of the NAS in predicting clinical deterioration and fibrosis progression in NAFLD. Methods. One hundred and twenty-nine patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included in a long-term histological follow-up study. Clinical course and change in fibrosis stage were compared between nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), “borderline NASH,” and “not NASH” patients. Significant fibrosis progression was defined as progression of more than one fibrosis stage or development of end-stage liver disease during follow-up. Results. Eighty-eight patients accepted reevaluation and 68 underwent repeat liver biopsy. Mean time between biopsies was 13.8 ± 1.2 years (range 10.3–16.3). At baseline, NASH was diagnosed in 2 (1.6%) patients, and at follow-up, in 1 (1.5%) patient. A trend toward higher baseline NAS was seen in patients (n = 7) who developed end-stage liver disease (3.1 ± 0.9 vs. 2.2 ± 1.0; p = 0.050). Baseline NAS was associated with progressive disease in a univariate binary logistic regression analysis (p = 0.024), but no difference was seen in the multivariate analysis including the NAS, portal inflammation, and perisinusoidal fibrosis. Moreover, 18% of patients without NASH progressed significantly in fibrosis stage. Conclusions. The ability of the NAS to predict progression of NAFLD is poor. The clinical usefulness of the score is limited due to the significant overlap in clinical development between NAS score groups. To use the NAS as endpoint in treatment trial is not justified.

High prevalence of autoantibodies to C-reactive protein in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection: association with liver fibrosis and portal inflammation

The presence of autoantibodies against C-reactive protein (anti-CRP) has been reported in association with autoimmunity and histopathology in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Resistin could play a role in the pathogenesis of hepatitis, although results on HCV infection are ambiguous. Here we retrospectively analyzed anti-CRP and resistin levels in the sera of 38 untreated and well-characterized HCV patients at the time of their first liver biopsy. HCV activity and general health were assessed by a physician at least yearly until follow-up ended. Anti-CRP and resistin were also measured in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Anti-CRP antibodies were registered in all HCV patients, whereas only a few AIH (11%) and NAFLD (12%) sera were positive. Anti-CRP levels were related to histopathological severity and were highest in patients with cirrhosis at baseline. Resistin levels were similar in HCV, AIH, and NAFLD patients, but high levels of resistin were associated with early mortality in HCV patients. Neither anti-CRP nor resistin predicted a response to interferon-based therapy or cirrhosis development or was associated with liver-related mortality. We conclude that anti-CRP antibodies are frequently observed in chronic HCV infection and could be a useful marker of advanced fibrosis and portal inflammation.

Low to moderate lifetime alcohol consumption is associated with less advanced stages of fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Abstract Background and aim: Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with a lower risk of disease severity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is unclear if this reflects current or lifetime drinking, or can be attributed to confounders such as diet and exercise. We evaluated the impact of lifetime alcohol consumption on fibrosis severity in NAFLD. Methods: We prospectively enrolled 120 subjects with biopsy-proven NAFLD and through detailed questionnaires examined lifetime alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Main outcome measures were odds ratios (OR) for fibrosis stage, calculated through ordinal regression after adjustment for body mass index, diabetes mellitus type 2, smoking and age at biopsy. A biomarker for recent alcohol consumption, phosphatidyl ethanol (PEth) was sampled. Results: An increase in median weekly alcohol consumption to a maximum of 13 drinks per week was associated with lower fibrosis stage (adjusted OR for each incremental unit, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76–0.97; p = .017). The lowest risk for fibrosis was found with the lowes`t odds seen in the top quartile of alcohol consumption (aOR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08–0.66; p = .006). Adding soft drink and coffee consumptions, and physical activity to the model did not change the estimates. Subjects with PEth ≥0.3 μmol/L had higher ORs for a higher fibrosis stage (aOR 2.77; 95% CI 1.01–7.59; p = .047). Conclusion: Lifetime alcohol consumption with up to 13 units per week is associated with lower fibrosis stage in NAFLD. Elevated PEth is associated with higher stages of fibrosis.

SAF score and mortality in NAFLD after up to 41 years of follow-up

Abstract Background and aims: A new score for the histological severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), called SAF (Steatosis, Activity and Fibrosis) has been developed. We aimed to evaluate the impact of this score on overall mortality. Methods: We used data from 139 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD. All biopsies were graded according to the SAF scoring system and disease severity was classified as mild, moderate or severe. Causes of death were extracted from a national, population-based register. A Cox regression model, adjusted for sex, body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus type 2, was applied. Results: At baseline 35 patients presented with mild or moderate disease respectively, and 69 patients with severe disease. During follow-up (median 25.3 years, range 1.7–40.8) 74 patients died, 11 in the mild group (31%), 18 in the moderate group (51%) and 45 in the severe group (65%), p = .002. Compared to patients with mild disease, patients with moderate disease did not have a significant increase in overall mortality (HR 1.83, 95%CI 0.89–3.77, p = .10). Patients with severe disease had a significant increase in mortality (HR 2.65, 95%CI 1.19–5.93, p = .017). However, when adjusting for fibrosis stage, significance was lost (HR 1.85, 95%CI 0.76–4.54, p = .18). NASH, defined as per the FLIP algorithm, was not associated with mortality compared to not having NASH (HR 1.46, 95%CI 0.74–2.90, p = .28). Conclusions: After adjustment for fibrosis, the SAF score was not associated with increased mortality in NAFLD. This finding should be corroborated in larger cohorts with similar follow-up time.