Hanns von Hofer

Prison Polulations as Political Constructs: The Case of Finland, Holland, and Sweden.

Countries such as Finland, Holland and Sweden have witnessed similar economic and social developments and have been affected by similar crime trends. However, over the past 50 years, the daily pris ...Countries such as Finland, Holland and Sweden have witnessed similar economic and social developments and have been affected by similar crime trends. However, over the past 50 years, the daily prison populations in these three Northern European countries have developed very differently. An attempt is made here to discuss these diverse developments in the light of a perspective that treats daily prison populations as political constructs.1 1I am grateful to my translator, David Shannon, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.

Crime Statistics as Constructs: The Case of Swedish Rape Statistics

Using Swedish rape statistics as a focus, this article aims to empirically describe the way in which different factors affect official crime statistics produced at the national level. It is argued that cross-national comparisons of crime levels are extremely hazardous when based on official crime statistics, since the construction rules vary widely. International comparisons of crime levels should as a rule be confined to findings of international victim surveys. The example of rape statistics in Sweden - about three times higher when compared to other countries in the European Sourcebook - is used to explain what factors can influence statistics. Statistical, legal and substansive factors are to be taken into account. The author shows that changes in statistical routines, the legal definition of rape and changes over time all influence the statistics in a substansive way. This article indicates the great extent to which crime statistics are a construct, whose appearance is very sensitive to the rules applied in the process of construction. In order to employ statistics appropriately, a thorough knowledge of the principles guiding this process is therefore essential.Using Swedish rape statistics as a focus, this article aims to empirically describe the way in which different factors affect official crime statistics produced at the national level. It is argued that cross-national comparisons of crime levels are extremely hazardous when based on official crime statistics, since the construction rules vary widely. International comparisons of crime levels should as a rule be confined to findings of international victim surveys. The example of rape statistics in Sweden - about three times higher when compared to other countries in the European Sourcebook - is used to explain what factors can influence statistics. Statistical, legal and substansive factors are to be taken into account. The author shows that changes in statistical routines, the legal definition of rape and changes over time all influence the statistics in a substansive way. This article indicates the great extent to which crime statistics are a construct, whose appearance is very sensitive to the rules applied in the process of construction. In order to employ statistics appropriately, a thorough knowledge of the principles guiding this process is therefore essential.

Crime and Punishment in Sweden: Historical Criminal Justice Statistics 1750–2000

The article is a summary of a book in Swedish on the development of crime (that is, violence and theft) and punishment in Sweden in a historical perspective. The data stem mostly from conviction statistics. Following a discussion of the reliability of conviction statistics, trends in these statistics are described and various criminological explanations for these trends are discussed.

Crime and Reactions to Crime in Scandinavia

This short overview of available statistical data on crime and penal systems in Scandinavia indicates that the level of traditional forms of crime in Scandinavia is on a par with or lower than that found in many other European countries. As elsewhere in western Europe, Scandinavia experienced a substantial increase in crime rates during the post‐war period—indicating that these recorded increases may have common structural roots. The 1990s witnessed a stabilization of theft rates, albeit at a high level. Increasing equality between women and men may have contributed to an increase in the reporting of violent and sexual offences against women (and children), making these offences more visible. The system of formal control in the Scandinavian countries is characterized by relatively low police density; a clear‐up rate that has declined; above‐average conviction rates; the imposition of fines in a high proportion of criminal cases; and relatively low prison populations. The implications for crime policies ar...This short overview of available statistical data on crime and penal systems in Scandinavia indicates that the level of traditional forms of crime in Scandinavia is on a par with or lower than that found in many other European countries. As elsewhere in western Europe, Scandinavia experienced a substantial increase in crime rates during the post‐war period—indicating that these recorded increases may have common structural roots. The 1990s witnessed a stabilization of theft rates, albeit at a high level. Increasing equality between women and men may have contributed to an increase in the reporting of violent and sexual offences against women (and children), making these offences more visible. The system of formal control in the Scandinavian countries is characterized by relatively low police density; a clear‐up rate that has declined; above‐average conviction rates; the imposition of fines in a high proportion of criminal cases; and relatively low prison populations. The implications for crime policies are discussed.

The development of crime in light of Finnish and Swedish criminal justice statistics, circa 1750–2010:

This paper analyses four historical time series on homicide, assault, robbery and theft from Finnish and Swedish vital and conviction (judicial) statistics. It is suggested that long-term criminal justice statistics – at least in Finland and Sweden – are highly usable and that they add relevant basic knowledge to important current criminological and crime policy issues. It is concluded that law reforms are greatly influential in terms of changes in the sanctioning system (strong evidence of policy impact); but law reforms do not contribute to lasting changes in the development of crime as measured by conviction statistics (no substantiated evidence of crime impact). In the long run, crime seems to persistently evade the manifold legislative efforts to ‘combat’ it.

Individual Prediction and Crime Trends

A typical solution proposed by both politicians and academics to the problem of crime in society today is individual prediction and early intervention. The question then is how this approach contributes to the central question of how to explain trends in crime. Data used to illustrate this question are drawn mainly from prediction studies, official statistics and level-of-living surveys in Sweden. It is argued that the possibility of predicting or explaining trends in crime by individual data is quite limited. First, the predictive power of individual childhood or teenage properties is too weak to explain total crime or specific types of crime. Second, changes in aggregate measures of conditions during upbringing are not easily compatible with changes in trends in crime. Third, other variables relating to changes in the opportunity structure than changes in the family of upbringing can account for the development of crime trends.

Punishment and Crime in Scandinavia, 1750-2008

Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden have collected criminal justice data since at least the first half of the nineteenth century. These data can be used to describe basic trends in criminal justice interventions as regards violent and property offenses. They can also be used to screen the potential effects of criminal justice interventions on crime compared with more basic structural factors such as urbanization, industrialization, migration, and control of substance use. The marginal effects of changes in criminal sanctions appear to be negligible for the development of recorded crime. These changes include use and abolition of the death penalty, the gradual replacement of imprisonment with alternative sanctions, and the shifting use of fines. The influence of urbanization and industrialization appears to be insignificant, but measures to control alcohol use have had a great effect on violence, as have changes in the opportunity structure on theft. Viewed over the long term, criminal justice interventions during the twentieth century were inefficient in controlling the development of crime and criminals in Scandinavia.AbstractDenmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden have collected criminal justice data since at least the first half of the nineteenth century. These data can be used to describe basic trends in criminal justice interventions as regards violent and property offenses. They can also be used to screen the potential effects of criminal justice interventions on crime compared with more basic structural factors such as urbanization, industrialization, migration, and control of substance use. The marginal effects of changes in criminal sanctions appear to be negligible for the development of recorded crime. These changes include use and abolition of the death penalty, the gradual replacement of imprisonment with alternative sanctions, and the shifting use of fines. The influence of urbanization and industrialization appears to be insignificant, but measures to control alcohol use have had a great effect on violence, as have changes in the opportunity structure on theft. Viewed over the long term, criminal justice int...

Theft in Sweden 1831?1998

This paper on theft in Sweden analyses crime and reactions to crime in non-individual, structural terms. The data used stems from Swedish convictions statistics which are available for the period since 1831. Swedish trends in theft convictions follow an international pattern with reductions during the second half of the 19th century and settling at a comparatively low level during the decades around the turn of the 20th century. A sharp occurred after the mid-1920s until the mid-1980s. Upon closer examination, this increase took the form of an S-curve whose course resembles that of goods production. One interpretation is that once a basic level of material security had been guaranteed, theft convictions followed the availability of goods; with more to consume, there is more to steal, and levels of control tend to diminish. Howthat ever, this interpretation may not apply to a smaller proportion of convictions ? those which concern persistent offenders. Their development differed in one decisive manner from that of casual offenders ? the steep rise is very sudden and occurred first after the Second World War. An explanation based on the relationship between livelihood, excessive alcohol consumption and theft is put forward.

Punishment in Sweden: A Changing Penal Landscape

Europe has abolished the death penalty. Imprisonment has thereby become the most severe available sanction. The level of, and trends in, imprisonment are also often used as a simple way of describing penal control, although it should be noted that fines have always been the dominant penal sanction in Sweden.

Book Reviews : Kenneth Polk: When Men Kill. Scenarios of Masculine Violence. Cambridge, New York, Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, 1994:

I found this book very intriguing, stimulating and intellectually convincing. Tronto addresses controversial questions in a way that demonstrates comprehensive knowledge both of moral philosophy and political thought. Its logic is clear and convincing. Still, to me the arguments were more obvious than provocative. Her accurate description of carework enriched the Scandinavian debate and I strongly recommend the book to Scandinavian readers.