Hariolf Grupp

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.

Interdependencies between the science and technology infrastructure and innovation activities in German regions: empirical findings and policy consequences

Abstract Regional studies have detected interdependencies between the technological infrastructure and the innovation activities of the respective regions. It is commonly agreed that the private knowledge base of companies in a region is supplemented by the public knowledge of research institutes located in the region. On account of the accumulation of knowledge and regional effects, competitive regional specialisation patterns evolve. This paper follows studies from the United States and underlines the mostly positive influence between the public science infrastructure and the industrial science and technology output. The empirical part deals with the federal states (laender) of Germany. For two of them, Baden–Wuerttemberg (BW) and North Rhine–Westphalia (NRW), an innovative in-depth analysis based on a breakdown of activities in 18 technology areas is presented. Consequences for science and technology policy are discussed.

The scientometric weight of 50 nations in 27 science areas, 1989–1993. Part I. All fields combined, mathematics, engineering, chemistry and physics

The present aproach attempts some news approaches to the presentation of bibliometric macro-level indicators

Spillover Effects and the Science Base of Innovations Reconsidered: An Empirical Approach

When quantifying spillover effects among technologies and between science and technology one faces the problem that clear-cut measurement procedures are difficult to define and to validate. The well-known approach by indexing certain outputs (patent documents) grasps only parts of the complex and feedback innovation-oriented processes. However, recently, new promising lines of research for understanding technological externalities have been embarked upon. New measurements of the science-technology-innovation interface are presented from three different aspects. First, the overall properties of technological spillover and, second, of science involvement in innovations are presented on a world-wide scale. The third main section of the results provides a panoramic view of scientific involvement in technology in terms of a country comparison. The contribution attempts to add quantitative evidence for an evolutionary understanding of the externalities between public science, latent public technology and private innovation.

The measurement of technical performance of innovations by technometrics and its impact on established technology indicators

Abstract It is more difficult, both theoretically and in practice, to record and analyse the returns from research, development (R&D) and innovation than it is to cover expenditures incurred in such activities. Therefore, it is suggested to embark on correlated systems of output indicators of various types and to assess the state of the art in innovative product groups by direct technology specification measures (‘technometrics’) in intimate liaison with patent analysis. Peer evaluation and personal expertise are an essential addition to any science and technology progress indicator to bridge the inconsistencies and the lack of adaptation of the indicator systems with respect to reality. As the technometric approach is largely based on expert interviews, the technometric indicators play a central role in validating any other science, technology and innovation indices. However, technometric time series data are very difficult to obtain and rather costly. A new type of patent indicator is, therefore, introduced replacing direct technology measures more adequately than most of the established indicators. In the paper, the suggested indicators are applied to selected leading-edge product groups. Although an outline of the detailed case studies is not possible within this paper it is shown that the proposed type of measurement provides a consolidated and reliable picture of the innovation dynamics in industrialized countries, which can be put to use in terms of both individual enterprises or research institutions and the national economy.

Exploring the science and technology interface: inventor-author relations in laser medicine research

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate a specific aspect of the science and technology interface: inventor-author relations. The subject area is application of lasers in medicine. The empirical material consists of a set of 30 patents, representing the ‘technology side’ and 1057 publications authored by the inventors, representing the ‘science side’ of lasers in medicine. Our study includes four different approaches. First, we tried to find evidence, by looking at the scientific part, for the claim that references in patents to non-patent literature (NPL references, mostly scientific publications) indicate ‘science intensity’. It appeared that inventors of patents with many NPL references did not publish significantly more in science than inventors of patents with few NPL references. The former did, however, use more basic scientific journals to publish in than the latter. Second, we tried to identify at the science side one paper per patent which would best represent the RD and (2) companies and universities level up their co-operation.

The scientometric weight of 50 nations in 27 science areas, 1989–1993. Part II. Life sciences

The present paper attempts some new approaches to the presentation of bibliometric macro-level indicators. Whilst in former suties national indicators on the 5 major science fields, life science, physis, chemistry, engineering and mathematics and /or 128 subfieds, this study aims at a compromise between the two extremes. In that order the subfields have been grouped into 27 broader science areas

Perceptions of Scientification of Innovation as Measured by Referencing Between Patents and Papers: Dynamics in Science-Based Fields of Technology

The core of the relationship between science and technology in Europe can be traced back to Galileo Galilei (died 1642) or Leonardo da Vinci (died 1519). Thus progress in scientific knowledge to the heliocentric world system essentially advanced through improved Dutch telescope technology and excellent lens grinding and also conversely the then new scientific model of the cosmos could be used directly for maritime navigation. Science and technology appear to be closely interlinked. Owing to the connection — obvious even then — between technical change and economic prosperity, early innovations were in no doubt as the importance of science to economic and social advance was self.

Tracing technological change over long periods in Germany in chemicals using patent statistics

This contribution deepens the feasibility issues of building state-of-the-art patent indicators with historical patent documents available in electronic form from the German Patent Office since the introduction of the Patent Law for the German Empire in 1877. The paper is divided into two parts: a methodological discussion and a case study on the chemical sector in Germany. The development of the technology sector defined matches remarkably well with stylised facts that institutional analysis in the chemical sector have provided us with so far. Moreover, the possibility of varying the level of aggregation in the analysis of technological areas discloses empirical evidence for the path-dependent development in the chemical sector after the advent of the organic chemistry and its application in the chemical synthesis of dye stuffs. Our findings enhance institutional and historical contributions about technological change in the chemical sector and suggest new research questions for innovation studies.

Current Foresight Activities in

Abstract During the early 1990s, technology foresight has become much more widespread. First pioneered in the United States and later in Japan, it has now spread to continental Europe. One of the first engagements in modern national foresight occurred in the Netherlands. The task is to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest socio-economic benefits. The decentralized foresight approaches are less holistic than elsewhere and are concerned with selected areas. In Germany, parallel approaches have been adopted for looking systematically into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society. In an era characterized by ever fiercer global economic competition, and with the burden of unifying two different science systems and over-stretched public expenditure budgets, the German governments on federal and state levels and indeed the public are coming to expect more direct economic and social benefits from science in return to their investment. Decentralized types of foresight are also observed in Austria, whereas in Hungary the first attempts to arrive at a foresight program seem to be modelled after British experiences.