Harold L. Goodwin

Which Broiler Part is the Best Part

Predominance of production and marketing contracts in the broiler industry suggests a traditional analysis of price relationships might no longer be appropriate. In this study, markets for broiler cuts are defined as spatial. Results of a vector autoregressive regression analysis of monthly USDA data from 1987 to 2000 verify the price relationship between white meat and whole broiler prices. Price shocks in the boneless skinless breast market have a greater effect than dark meat shocks, suggesting this market is most important in price transmission. These results will assist industry participants to form more effective marketing and pricing strategies, thus adding efficiency to the market.

How Far Can Poultry Litter Go? A New Technology for Litter Transport

Exporting northwest Arkansas excess turkey and broiler litter to partially fertilize nutrient-deficient cropland in eastern Arkansas can be more cost effective than to supply all crop nutrients with chemical fertilizer only, given current high fertilizer prices. Cost savings are greater if litter is baled in ultraviolet resistant plastic and transported via truck, since backhaul opportunities reduce truck rates, or alternatively, if raw litter is shipped via a truck-barge combination. Rice is the crop that allows for greater savings according to a mathematical programming model implemented in General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS).

The opportunity cost of regulating phosphorus from broiler production in the Illinois River Basin

Abstract The Illinois River Basin in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas is an example of a region where significant growth in poultry production has been accompanied by water quality problems. The primary concern in the basin is the problem of phosphorus in runoff that is associated with application of litter to crops. Existing data suggest that there has been a continuing decline in the quality of water in the Illinois River, and discussions have focused on developing and implementing a phosphorus standard. The specific objectives of this study are to estimate the reduction in poultry production necessary to achieve the reduction in phosphorus runoff under a set of phosphorus constraints, including soil test phosphorus, and to estimate the opportunity costs of reducing poultry production in the basin under each phosphorus constraint on the economic activity in the watershed. A mathematical programming model that incorporates poultry production and cropping decisions is developed. The parameters for the model are identified and then it is solved to provide a base solution. Model solutions are then developed for the different policy target levels of phosphorus. The model structure is modified to account for the presence of soil test phosphorus levels and the corresponding limits on soil test phosphorus throughout the basin. This formulation includes current soil test phosphorus throughout the basin. All of the applications assume that the only disposal option for poultry litter is land application within the basin. An economic impact assessment of the effects of phosphorus limitations in the basin is also conducted for Arkansas counties only, Oklahoma counties only, and all five affected counties combined.

Location of Production and Consolidation in the Processing Industry: The Case of Poultry

The poultry industry is the most vertically integrated of U.S. agriculture and food production and is rapidly progressing toward being one of the most concentrated. In 2002, the top 15 broiler states accounted for 94.4% of U.S. production. From 1982-2002, the top four broiler firms had a fivefold increase in Ready-to-Cook (R-T-C) pounds, a tripling of plants and four-and eight-firm concentration ratio increases of 27.9% to 48.2% and 44.1% to 66.6%. In a broad sense, chicken became more affordable, appealing, and available; total R-T-C pounds increased from 234 to 663 million pounds between 1982 and 2002.

IMPLICIT PRICE ESTIMATION OF RICE QUALITY ATTRIBUTES FOR ASIAN AMERICANS

Product placement survey data for 192 Asian-American households in Houston were used to analyze the value of rice quality attributes via the Consumer Goods Characteristics model (CGCM). Five rice varieties were used for this study: domestic Lemont, Jasmine 85, Toro II, and two different Thai import varieties. For each variety, marginal implicit prices were calculated at the means for seven characteristics: color, texture, aroma, stickiness, flavor, aftertaste, and moisture.

Impact of meat and bone meal nutritional variability on broiler performance

SUMMARY Due to the variability of raw ingredient inputs into meat and bone meal (MBM), the nutritional composition of each batch can vary. An evaluation was performed to determine if the performance and yield of broilers grown to 49 d of age would be impacted by dietary inclusion of MBM with a consistent or a variable nutritional quality. MBM inclusion rate was 10, 7.5, and 5% for the starter, grower, and finisher periods, respectively. Live production data as well as processing data were collected to determine the performance of the bird. The performance data were then used on an economic evaluation. Evaluation of live production determined that the variable CP levels of the MBM had a negative effect on the growth performance as well as processing. This lack in final weights of the birds from the variable CP levels of MBM allowed for a greater cost margin in the economic evaluation. Thus, MBM with a consistent CP level, allowed for greater growth as well as more usable product. In return, gross margins were higher for birds fed a consistent MBM.

Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets

Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician’s model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.