Harry J. Dowsett

Closure of the Isthmus of Panama: The near-shore marine record of Costa Rica and western Panama

The final closure of the Isthmus of Panama at ∼3.5 Ma divided the American tropical ocean into two separate and different oceanographic regions. Consequences for the marine biota were profound, but, hitherto, correlation of the Pacific and Caribbean coastal sections has not been precise enough to track biologic patterns. We present here a correlation of 31 sections from the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Using calcareous nannofossils and planktonic foraminifera at both the tops and bottoms of each formation, we estimate that the Caribbean section ranges from 8.2 Ma to 1.7 Ma; and the Pacific sequence, from 3.6 Ma to <1.7 Ma. These intervals bracket postulated dates for final closure of the Isthmus and provide the first well-dated record of middle and late Pliocene faunas from the region. The Caribbean and Pacific sections include very different environments of deposition, yet there is sufficient overlap and diversity of habitats to permit meaningful biological comparisons. On the Caribbean side, formations tied together by the overlap of the upper Pliocene markers Sphenolithus abies and Pseudoemiliana lacunosa (3.5 Ma to 3.6 Ma) range from very shallow to shallow inner shelf (<200 m) and upper slope (200-800 m). The Pacific coast sections were mostly deposited in a trench slope environment, which is absent on the Caribbean side. These sections fortuitously include abundant thick intra-formational slumps containing shallow-water fauna more appropriate for biological comparison with the Caribbean biota. Similarly, the ∼1.9 Ma to 1.5 Ma interval, well constrained by various taxa, includes middle- to outer-shelf, and inner-shelf to upper-slope deposits on the Caribbean side, and marginal-marine to inner-shelf deposits on the Pacific coast. Using our new biostratigraphic framework to correlate previously poorly constrained mollusc collections, we show that evolutionary divergence of the Pacific and Caribbean near-shore marine faunas had occurred by 3.5 Ma. This strongly suggests that the Isthmus was effectively closed by this time.

High eustatic sea level during the middle Pliocene: Evidence from the southeastern U. S. Atlantic Coastal Plain

The middle Pliocene, {approximately}3.5-2.5 Ma, was a period of global warmth preceding the growth of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. The authors report on eustatic sea level for the middle Pliocene based on microspaleontologic study of marine deposits of the Duplin Formation of South Carolina and North Carolina. The Duplin was deposited during a middle Pliocene marine transgression that formed the Orangeburg scarp, a prominent wave-cut geomorphic paleoshoreline of the southeastern U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain. They concluded that (1) the scarp in South Carolina was formed mostly during the middle Pliocene (3.5-3.0 Ma), (2) eustatic sea level was about 35 {plus minus} 18 m higher than modern sea level (the scarp has been uplifted about 50-65 m since the middle Pliocene), and (3) ocean-water temperatures along eastern North America were warmer when the scarp was formed that they are at present.

Millennial‐ to century‐scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The d 18 O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing. INDEX TERMS: 4267 Oceanography: General: Paleoceanography; 9604 Information Related to Geologic Time: Cenozoic; 3030 Marine Geology and Geophysics: Micropaleontology;

Sea Surface Temperature of the mid-Piacenzian Ocean: A Data-Model Comparison

The mid-Piacenzian climate represents the most geologically recent interval of long-term average warmth relative to the last million years, and shares similarities with the climate projected for the end of the 21st century. As such, it represents a natural experiment from which we can gain insight into potential climate change impacts, enabling more informed policy decisions for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we present the first systematic comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) between an ensemble of eight climate model simulations produced as part of PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) with the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) Project mean annual SST field. Our results highlight key regional and dynamic situations where there is discord between the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and the climate model simulations. These differences have led to improved strategies for both experimental design and temporal refinement of the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.

A quantitative micropaleontologic method for shallow marine peleoclimatology: Application to Pliocene deposits of the western North Atlantic Ocean

Abstract A transfer function was developed to estimate summer and winter paleotemperatures for arctic to tropical regions of the western North Atlantic Ocean using fossil ostracode assemblages. Q-mode factor analysis was run on ostracode assemblages from 100 modern bottom sediment samples from continental shelves of North America, Greenland and the Caribbean using 59 ostracode taxa. Seven factors accounting for 80% of the variance define assemblages that correspond to frigid, subfrigid, cold temperate, mild temperate, warm temperate, subtropical and tropical climatic zones. Multiple regression of the factor matrix against observed February and August bottom temperatures yielded an astracode transfer function with an accuracy of about ±2°C. The transfer function was used to reconstruct middle Pliocene (3.5–3.0 Ma) shallow marine climates of the western North Atlantic during the marine transgression that deposited the Yorktown Formation (Virginia and North Carolina), the Duplin Formation (South and North Carolina) and the Pinecrest beds (Florida). Middle Pliocene paleowater temperatures in Virginia averaged 19°C in August and 13.5°C in February, about 5°C to 8°C warmer than at comparable depths off Virginia today. August and February water temperatures in North Carolina were 23°C and 13.4°C, in South Carolina about 23°C and 13.5°C and in southern Florida about 24.6°C and 15.4°C. Marine climates north of 35°N were warmer than today; south of 35°N, they were about the same or slightly cooler. Thermal gradients along the coast were generally not as steep as they are today. The North Atlantic transfer function can be applied to other shallow marine Pliocene and Pleistocene deposits of eastern North America.

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function for estimating Pliocene-Holocene paleoceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic

Abstract A new planktic foraminifer transfer function (GSF18) related 5 North Atlantic assemblages to winter and summer sea surface temperature. GSF18, based on recombined and simplified core top census data, preserves most environmental information and reproduces modern North Atlantic conditions with approximately the same accuracy as previous transfer functions, but can be more readily applied to faunal samples ranging in age from Pliocene to Holocene. Transfer function GSF18 has been applied to faunal data from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 552A to produce a 2.5 m.y. sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. Estimates show several periods between 2.3 and 4.6 Ma during which mean SSTs were both several degrees warmer and several degrees cooler than modern conditions. Between 2.9 and 4.0 Ma SST was generally warmer than modern except for a 250 k.y. interval centered at 3.3 Ma. Maximum SST, with respect to modern conditions, occurred after the cool interval near 3.1 Ma when SST was approximately 3.6°C warmer than present conditions. Comparison of SST estimates with stable isotope data suggest that after peak warming at 3.1 Ma, there was an overall surface water cooling with concomitant build up of global ice volume, culminating in Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This event is also indicated by the presence of ice rafted detritus in 552A sediments at about 2.45 Ma.

Mid-Pliocene equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction: a multi-proxy perspective.

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth, which can be used to examine conditions predicted for the near future. An accurate spatial representation of the low-latitude Mid-Pliocene Pacific surface ocean is necessary to understand past climate change in the light of forecasts of future change. Mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show a strong contrast between the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) regardless of proxy (faunal, alkenone and Mg/Ca). All WEP sites show small differences from modern mean annual temperature, but all EEP sites show significant positive deviation from present-day temperatures by as much as 4.4°C. Our reconstruction reflects SSTs similar to modern in the WEP, warmer than modern in the EEP and eastward extension of the WEP warm pool. The east–west equatorial Pacific SST gradient is decreased, but the pole to equator gradient does not change appreciably. We find it improbable that increased greenhouse gases (GHG) alone would cause such a heterogeneous warming and more likely that the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth is a combination of several forcings including both increased meridional heat transport and increased GHG.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment. This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO2) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Introduction. Pliocene climate, processes and problems

Climate predictions produced by numerical climate models, often referred to as general circulation models (GCMs), suggest that by the end of the twenty-first century global mean annual surface air temperatures will increase by 1.1–6.4°C. Trace gas records from ice cores indicate that atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are already higher than at any time during the last 650 000 years. In the next 50 years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to reach a level not encountered since an epoch of time known as the Pliocene. Uniformitarianism is a key principle of geological science, but can the past also be a guide to the future? To what extent does an examination of the Pliocene geological record enable us to successfully understand and interpret this guide? How reliable are the ‘retrodictions’ of Pliocene climates produced by GCMs and what does this tell us about the accuracy of model predictions for the future? These questions provide the scientific rationale for this Theme Issue.

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: implications for future climate

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earths history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.