Hartwig de Haen

World consumption of cereals: will it double by 2025?

Abstract A number of recent statements in the press and the professional literature signal the considerable increases in world production of cereals required to meet the growth of demand. They rightly point out the urgent need to increase investment in the agriculture of the developing countries, particularly in agricultural research, to meet the challenge. But the magnitude of the likely increases in world demand varies among authors as does the prospective role of the developed countries as net exporters of cereals. We examine the alternative projections and conclude that (a) a doubling of world demand by 2025 is an unlikely outcome and a doubling of demand of the developing countries is within the realm of realism, though optimistic, and (b) the exports of cereals from the developed countries will continue to grow but the huge quantities visualized by some authors are overly exaggerated.

Linkages between sustainable consumption and sustainable production: some suggestions for foresight work

The authors investigate how consumption and production of agricultural products have developed in the past and could possibly evolve in the future. The main focus is on changing consumption patterns and the consequences for food security and for the pressure on natural resources. In this context, the question is raised as to how foresight work can reflect the mechanisms by which a transition towards more sustainable consumption can influence the sustainability of the production systems. The authors first analyze the main drivers of the past and future evolution of food systems and then the implications for foresight analysis. An attempt is made to identify specific issues and policies that should be further analyzed. In particular, future foresight will be challenged to incorporate the interactions between consumption and production more explicitly and to address four issues: (i) intra-national heterogeneity of diets and resulting nutritional outcomes, (ii) externalities resulting from the process of production, processing, and marketing along the product chain, (iii) competition between food and non-food uses of agricultural commodities and between agricultural and non-agricultural use of land and (iv) mechanisms by which food scarcity causes hunger and malnutrition.

Muβ die Entwicklungspolitik der Demographischen Entwicklung in den Ländern der Dritten Welt Gröβere Aufmerksamkeit Schenken

Hohes Bevolkerungswachstum stellt fur viele Lander der Dritten Welt das zentrale Problem in ihrem Streben nach wirtschaftlicher und sozialer Entwicklung dar. Vor allem drei Konsequenzen beeintrachtigen die Entwicklungschancen: (1) Die Uberwindung von Massenarmut wird erschwert. Bei geringer Fahigkeit zum Sparen unterbleiben entweder die fur eine Steigerung des Lebensstandards notwendigen Investitionen oder Investitionen und kurzfristige Wohlstandssteigerung werden mit wachsender Verschuldung erkauft. (2) Die naturlichen Ressourcen werden uberbeansprucht. Insbesondere in Landern, in denen groβe Teile der Bevolkerung in der Landwirtschaft leben, reichen technische Fortschritte und auβerlandwirtschaftliches Wachstum oft nicht aus, um die Abhangigkeit von der Subsistenzsicherung auf knapper werdender Flache schnell genug abzubauen, Okologische Belastungen und landliche Armut nehmen zu. (3) Es entsteht ein Ungleichgewicht zwischen rascher Urbanisierung und stadtisch industriellem Arbeitsplatzangebot. Die Folge sind erhebliche soziale Belastungen und - vielfach nicht finanzierbare - Kosten fur den Aufbau von Infrastruktur und die Intensivierung von Guteraustausch und Kommunikation zwischen Stadt und Land.

Egypt and the enlargement of the EEC : Impact on the agricultural sector

Abstract This article examines the impact of the second enlargement of the EEC on the agricultural sector of Egypt. The authors consider the impacts on Egypts agricultural trade and, through the use of a linear programming model, the long term impacts of EEC enlargement. The authors conlude that, in short run, the southward expansion of the EEC will impose only a limited additional burden on the Egyptian economy. But, in the long run the burden placed on Egypt by increased protectionism in the expanded EEC could be much more severe.