Matin Qaim

A Meta-Analysis of the Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops

Background Despite the rapid adoption of genetically modified (GM) crops by farmers in many countries, controversies about this technology continue. Uncertainty about GM crop impacts is one reason for widespread public suspicion. Objective We carry out a meta-analysis of the agronomic and economic impacts of GM crops to consolidate the evidence. Data Sources Original studies for inclusion were identified through keyword searches in ISI Web of Knowledge, Google Scholar, EconLit, and AgEcon Search. Study Eligibility Criteria Studies were included when they build on primary data from farm surveys or field trials anywhere in the world, and when they report impacts of GM soybean, maize, or cotton on crop yields, pesticide use, and/or farmer profits. In total, 147 original studies were included. Synthesis Methods Analysis of mean impacts and meta-regressions to examine factors that influence outcomes. Results On average, GM technology adoption has reduced chemical pesticide use by 37%, increased crop yields by 22%, and increased farmer profits by 68%. Yield gains and pesticide reductions are larger for insect-resistant crops than for herbicide-tolerant crops. Yield and profit gains are higher in developing countries than in developed countries. Limitations Several of the original studies did not report sample sizes and measures of variance. Conclusion The meta-analysis reveals robust evidence of GM crop benefits for farmers in developed and developing countries. Such evidence may help to gradually increase public trust in this technology.

Economic impacts and impact dynamics of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton in India

Despite widespread adoption of genetically modified crops in many countries, heated controversies about their advantages and disadvantages continue. Especially for developing countries, there are concerns that genetically modified crops fail to benefit smallholder farmers and contribute to social and economic hardship. Many economic studies contradict this view, but most of them look at short-term impacts only, so that uncertainty about longer-term effects prevails. We address this shortcoming by analyzing economic impacts and impact dynamics of Bt cotton in India. Building on unique panel data collected between 2002 and 2008, and controlling for nonrandom selection bias in technology adoption, we show that Bt has caused a 24% increase in cotton yield per acre through reduced pest damage and a 50% gain in cotton profit among smallholders. These benefits are stable; there are even indications that they have increased over time. We further show that Bt cotton adoption has raised consumption expenditures, a common measure of household living standard, by 18% during the 2006–2008 period. We conclude that Bt cotton has created large and sustainable benefits, which contribute to positive economic and social development in India.

Plant breeding to control zinc deficiency in India : How cost-effective is biofortification?

OBJECTIVE To estimate the potential impact of zinc biofortification of rice and wheat on public health in India and to evaluate its cost-effectiveness compared with alternative interventions and international standards. DESIGN The burden of zinc deficiency (ZnD) in India was expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Current zinc intakes were derived from a nationally representative household food consumption survey (30-day recall) and attributed to household members based on adult equivalent weights. Using a dose-response function, projected increased zinc intakes from biofortified rice and wheat were translated into potential health improvements for pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. After estimating the costs of developing and disseminating the new varieties, the cost-effectiveness of zinc biofortification was calculated for both scenarios and compared with alternative micronutrient interventions and international reference standards. SETTING India. SUBJECTS Representative household survey (n = 119 554). RESULTS The calculated annual burden of ZnD in India is 2.8 million DALYs lost. Zinc biofortification of rice and wheat may reduce this burden by 20-51% and save 0.6-1.4 million DALYs each year, depending on the scenario. The cost for saving one DALY amounts to

Production diversity and dietary diversity in smallholder farm households

US 0.73-7.31, which is very cost-effective by standards of the World Bank and the World Health Organization, and is lower than that of most other micronutrient interventions. CONCLUSIONS Not only may zinc biofortification save lives and prevent morbidity among millions of people, it may also help accommodate the need to economise and to allocate resources more efficiently. Further research is needed to corroborate these findings.

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of Golden Rice.

Significance Given that hunger and malnutrition are still widespread problems in many developing countries, the question of how to make agriculture and food systems more nutrition-sensitive is of high relevance for research and policy. Many of the undernourished people in Africa and Asia are small-scale subsistence farmers. Diversifying production on these farms is often perceived as a promising strategy to improve dietary quality and diversity. This hypothesis is tested with data from smallholder farm households in Indonesia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Malawi. Higher farm production diversity significantly contributes to dietary diversity in some situations, but not in all. Improving small farmers’ access to markets seems to be a more effective strategy to improve nutrition than promoting production diversity on subsistence farms. Undernutrition and micronutrient malnutrition remain problems of significant magnitude in large parts of the developing world. Improved nutrition requires not only better access to food for poor population segments, but also higher dietary quality and diversity. Because many of the poor and undernourished people are smallholder farmers, diversifying production on these smallholder farms is widely perceived as a useful approach to improve dietary diversity. However, empirical evidence on the link between production and consumption diversity is scarce. Here, this issue is addressed with household-level data from Indonesia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Malawi. Regression models show that on-farm production diversity is positively associated with dietary diversity in some situations, but not in all. When production diversity is already high, the association is not significant or even turns negative, because of foregone income benefits from specialization. Analysis of other factors reveals that market access has positive effects on dietary diversity, which are larger than those of increased production diversity. Market transactions also tend to reduce the role of farm diversity for household nutrition. These results suggest that increasing on-farm diversity is not always the most effective way to improve dietary diversity in smallholder households and should not be considered a goal in itself. Additional research is needed to better understand how agriculture and food systems can be made more nutrition-sensitive in particular situations.

Potential impacts of iron biofortification in India

Genetic engineering (GE) in agriculture is a controversial topic in science and society at large. While some oppose genetically modified crops as proxy of an agricultural system they consider unsustainable and inequitable, the question remains whether GE can benefit the poor within the existing system and what needs to be done to deliver these benefits? Golden Rice has been genetically engineered to produce provitamin A. The technology is still in the testing phase, but, once released, it is expected to address one consequence of poverty – vitamin A deficiency (VAD) – and its health implications. Current interventions to combat VAD rely mainly on pharmaceutical supplementation, which is costly in the long run and only partially successful. We develop a methodology for ex-ante evaluation, taking into account the whole sequence of effects between the cultivation of the crop and its ultimate health impacts. In doing so we build on a comprehensive, nationally representative data set of household food consumption in India. Using a refined disability-adjusted life year (DALY) framework and detailed health data, this study shows for India that under optimistic assumptions this country’s annual burden of VAD of 2.3 million DALYs lost can be reduced by 59.4% hence 1.4 million healthy life years could be saved each year if Golden Rice would be consumed widely. In a low impact scenario, where Golden Rice is consumed less frequently and produces less provitamin A, the burden of VAD could be reduced by 8.8%. However, in both scenarios the cost per DALY saved through Golden Rice (US

Farmer Participation in Supermarket Channels, Production Technology, and Efficiency: The Case of Vegetables in Kenya

3.06-19.40) is lower than the cost of current supplementation efforts, and it outperforms international cost-effectiveness thresholds. Golden Rice should therefore be considered seriously as a complementary intervention to fight VAD in rice-eating populations in the medium term. JEL classifications: I0, I3, Q16, Q18.

Genetically Modified Crops and Food Security

Iron deficiency is a widespread nutrition and health problem in developing countries, causing impairments in physical activity and cognitive development, as well as maternal mortality. Although food fortification and supplementation programmes have been effective in some countries, their overall success remains limited. Biofortification, that is, breeding food crops for higher micronutrient content, is a relatively new approach, which has been gaining international attention recently. We propose a methodology for ex ante impact assessment of iron biofortification, building on a disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) framework. This methodology is applied in an Indian context. Using a large and representative data set of household food consumption, the likely effects of iron-rich rice and wheat varieties are simulated for different target groups and regions. These varieties, which are being developed by an international public research consortium, based on conventional breeding techniques, might be ready for local distribution within the next couple of years. The results indicate sizeable potential health benefits. Depending on the underlying assumptions, the disease burden associated with iron deficiency could be reduced by 19-58%. Due to the relatively low institutional cost to reach the target population, the expected cost-effectiveness of iron biofortification compares favourably with other micronutrient interventions. Nonetheless, biofortification should not be seen as a substitute for other interventions. Each approach has its particular strengths, so they complement one another.

Benefits of genetically modified crops for the poor: household income, nutrition, and health.

Supermarkets are gaining ground in the agri-food systems of many developing countries. While recent research has analyzed income effects in the small farm sector, impacts on productivity and efficiency have hardly been studied. We use a meta-frontier approach and combine this with propensity score matching to estimate treatment effects among vegetable farmers in Kenya. Participation in supermarket channels increases farm productivity in terms of meta-technology ratios by 45%. We also find positive and significant impacts on technical efficiency and scale efficiency. Supermarket expansion therefore presents opportunities for agricultural growth in the small farm sector, which is crucial for poverty reduction in Africa.

Ecological and socio-economic functions across tropical land use systems after rainforest conversion

The role of genetically modified (GM) crops for food security is the subject of public controversy. GM crops could contribute to food production increases and higher food availability. There may also be impacts on food quality and nutrient composition. Finally, growing GM crops may influence farmers’ income and thus their economic access to food. Smallholder farmers make up a large proportion of the undernourished people worldwide. Our study focuses on this latter aspect and provides the first ex post analysis of food security impacts of GM crops at the micro level. We use comprehensive panel data collected over several years from farm households in India, where insect-resistant GM cotton has been widely adopted. Controlling for other factors, the adoption of GM cotton has significantly improved calorie consumption and dietary quality, resulting from increased family incomes. This technology has reduced food insecurity by 15–20% among cotton-producing households. GM crops alone will not solve the hunger problem, but they can be an important component in a broader food security strategy.