Haruna Wada

Proposal of a Design Support Method for Sustainability Scenarios 1st Report: Designing Forecasting Scenarios

Although there are many scenario description methods, computational support has not been provided for scenario design. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of forecasting scenarios. This method supports determining storylines, which are key assumptions of sub scenarios, and describing sub scenarios based on the causal network and storyline. As a case study for verifying feasibility of this method, we described a forecasting scenario about changes of automobile industry when electric vehicles are diffused. Results illustrate that the usage of causal networks effectively supports generating storylines. Also, describing scenario texts is supported by detailing causal networks and the storylines.

Proposal of Design Support Method of Sustainability Scenarios in Backcasting Manner

Describing sustainability scenarios is a hopeful approach for envisioning sustainable future visions of industries. However, describing sustainability scenarios is a difficult task and there is no computational support method. This article proposes a design support method of sustainability scenarios in a backcasting manner, which means thinking backward from targeted futures. For the design support method, we propose the following two methods; (i) a method for supporting backward thinking and constructing future visions using a logic tree and (ii) a method for drawing transition paths based on the logic tree. As a case study, we designed “Sustainable manufacturing scenario,” which envisions sustainable future visions of manufacturing industries. Through the case study, we identified the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed method supports designing the scenario in clarifying the future visions, drawing the transition paths, and describing them in scenario structurally.Copyright

Designing sustainable manufacturing scenarios using 3S Simulator

Designing scenarios is a hopeful approach for realizing sustainable society. Sustainable Society Scenario (3S) Simulator is an integrated scenario design support environment. The purpose of this article is to discuss the effectiveness of the scenario design support method in 3S Simulator. Here, we employ a backcasting scenario design support method. The key approach of this method is employing logic trees. A logic tree supports backward thinking and structuring ideas into scenarios. We designed “Manufacturing corruption scenario” as a case study. The purpose of developing this scenario is to discuss unsustainable future of manufacturing industry for designing “Sustainable manufacturing scenario.” In the case study, we succeeded in designing the scenario based on the proposed process and two different corruption patterns are derived by constructing a logic tree. Through the case study, we identified the advantages of the design support method of 3S Simulator in structuring the designers’ idea into a scenario.

Formalizing Scenario Design Processes to Plan Long-term Business Strategies for Sustainability

Due to growing concern on sustainability, manufacturing companies need to plan long-term strategies to envision their pathways toward sustainable business. Designing scenarios is a core approach to examining business strategies by drawing possible future situations. This paper aims to formalize processes to design scenarios for planning business strategies for sustainability. These processes involve the reuse of existing sustainability scenarios to help companies’ strategists describe business environments that might occur. The results of describing a scenario regarding solar panel business demonstrate that the method makes it easier to describe detailed business environments and business strategies based on an existing energy scenario.

Supporting Scenario Design in Planning Long-Term Business Strategies Based on Sustainability Scenarios

When companies plan long-term strategies for making their business sustainable, designing scenarios is a promising way for examining various business strategies by drawing various possible situations in the future. This paper proposes a method to support scenario design for planning business strategies. The method employs existing sustainability scenarios, helping describe business environments by reusing descriptions of the sustainability scenarios. A scenario about solar panel business is described using the proposed method. Results illustrate that the method succeeds in describing detailed business environments based on existing sustainability scenarios, and finally, in obtaining several business strategies based on the business environments.