Yusuke Kishita

Research needs and challenges faced in supporting scenario design in sustainability science: a literature review

A number of scenarios have been created to explore possible images of and transitions to a sustainable society, as famously represented by the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. These can be valuable as underlying information for policy makers making plans for a low-carbon society. Although many researchers have developed individual methods that can be used for designing scenarios, research agendas or challenges for supporting scenario design activities have not been sufficiently discussed. Based on an intensive literature review of existing studies, this paper aims to clarify requisites and challenges for supporting scenario design, particularly in the context of sustainability science. Given that the value of designing scenarios is to help generate and communicate various ideas about the future as argued by sustainability science literature, scenarios are often created with stakeholder participation, through iterative cycles that are composed of three steps: (a) idea generation, (b) idea integration and scenario description, and (c) scenario evaluation. The results of our literature review also show that, though a wide array of methods and tools are available to support some of the steps, there are research issues to be further addressed in supporting scenario design. They include (1) accumulating existing scenarios and simulators as a promising approach to structuring knowledge about sustainability science and (2) ensuring the transparency of the logic underlying scenarios to facilitate communication between participants. Addressing these points will enhance support for sustainability scenario design.

Proposal of a Design Support Method for Sustainability Scenarios 1st Report: Designing Forecasting Scenarios

Although there are many scenario description methods, computational support has not been provided for scenario design. This paper proposes a method for supporting design of forecasting scenarios. This method supports determining storylines, which are key assumptions of sub scenarios, and describing sub scenarios based on the causal network and storyline. As a case study for verifying feasibility of this method, we described a forecasting scenario about changes of automobile industry when electric vehicles are diffused. Results illustrate that the usage of causal networks effectively supports generating storylines. Also, describing scenario texts is supported by detailing causal networks and the storylines.

Checklist-Based Assessment Methodology for Sustainable Design

The manufacturing industry is faced with a challenge to create products with less environmental impact targeting a sustainable society. To cope with this challenge, sustainable design or ecodesign plays one of the most important roles. Manufacturers often use ecodesign checklists that are intended for obtaining eco-labels, such as Eco Mark in Japan, in order to support design improvements of products in terms of environmental consciousness. Eco-label checklists are, however, insufficient to support designing products rationally because the relationships between individual requirements of checklists and environmental impact are undetermined. This paper proposes a method for supporting assessment for ecodesign by developing a weighted checklist from a conventional eco-label checklist. This weighted checklist assesses the environmental performance of a product based on the potential environmental improvement of each requirement, derived by life cycle simulation. Results of a case study involving a digital duplicator indicate that the proposed method successfully clarifies the requirements that should be improved in the present product. When the design improvements are applied, the assessment of the products CO 2 emissions shows an improvement by 8%.

Proposal of Design Support Method of Sustainability Scenarios in Backcasting Manner

Describing sustainability scenarios is a hopeful approach for envisioning sustainable future visions of industries. However, describing sustainability scenarios is a difficult task and there is no computational support method. This article proposes a design support method of sustainability scenarios in a backcasting manner, which means thinking backward from targeted futures. For the design support method, we propose the following two methods; (i) a method for supporting backward thinking and constructing future visions using a logic tree and (ii) a method for drawing transition paths based on the logic tree. As a case study, we designed “Sustainable manufacturing scenario,” which envisions sustainable future visions of manufacturing industries. Through the case study, we identified the effectiveness of the proposed method. The proposed method supports designing the scenario in clarifying the future visions, drawing the transition paths, and describing them in scenario structurally.Copyright

Integrated Scenario Design for Sustainability Research – Concept, Framework and Challenges

Sustainability research (SR) is an emerging academic research field that aims to point pathways toward a sustainable society. This paper takes designing scenarios as a means of knowledge structuring so that researchers from various disciplines are able to systematically share various expertise regarding sustainability issues. In this paper, we propose the concept of integrated scenario design (ISD) that reflects the scientific and social knowledge into scenarios in a comprehensive and dynamic manner. The ISD concept also intends to give feedback to the real world from what is described in the scenarios in order to help to bring about innovations necessary for transitions from existing social systems to a sustainable society. Based on the ISD concept, we clarify research issues that should be addressed in terms of designing and deploying scenarios in SR.

Designing sustainable manufacturing scenarios using 3S Simulator

Designing scenarios is a hopeful approach for realizing sustainable society. Sustainable Society Scenario (3S) Simulator is an integrated scenario design support environment. The purpose of this article is to discuss the effectiveness of the scenario design support method in 3S Simulator. Here, we employ a backcasting scenario design support method. The key approach of this method is employing logic trees. A logic tree supports backward thinking and structuring ideas into scenarios. We designed “Manufacturing corruption scenario” as a case study. The purpose of developing this scenario is to discuss unsustainable future of manufacturing industry for designing “Sustainable manufacturing scenario.” In the case study, we succeeded in designing the scenario based on the proposed process and two different corruption patterns are derived by constructing a logic tree. Through the case study, we identified the advantages of the design support method of 3S Simulator in structuring the designers’ idea into a scenario.

The Potential of Additive Manufacturing Technology for Realizing a Sustainable Society

Today, additive manufacturing (AM), which refers to a process by which digital design data is used to build up artifacts by decomposing material, is gaining growing interest from industry. The AM’s capability for producing complex structure in extremely small lot size can enable more optimal design for today’s manufacturing products. Through such optimal design of each product, energy and material consumption of society can be significantly reduced. As AM can produce a wide variety of components in one-by-one production, the total number of the products (and components) can be significantly reduced. In addition, the products made by AM can be optimally designed and manufactured for each particular purpose. This implies these products have no unused functions that may consume additional energy and materials. The objective of the paper is to propose the method for evaluating AM’s potential for reducing environmental impact of society considering these factors caused by introducing AM technology into industry.

Participatory Design as a Tool for Effective Sustainable Energy Transitions

Sustainable energy systems and transitions towards such systems are often discussed among experts or high-level stakeholders, but rarely involve individuals from the general community. This paper argues that it is important for such stakeholders to be engaged in the visioning or formation of plans for future energy systems in order for effective transitions to take place. The results of a number of related studies and techniques for achieving such visions are presented. Furthermore, research has indicated that there is a need to effectively nurture niche actors in order to provide the seeds of future sustainable regimes with the possibility to emerge. A discussion of how policy could promote this will also be described.

Assessing the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Cost of Thermoelectric Generators for Passenger Automobiles: A Life Cycle Perspective

Toward realizing a low-carbon society, a thermoelectric generator (TEG) is promising for energy harvesting by generating electricity from thermal energy, especially waste heat. While there are various technologies available for energy recovery, one of the strengths of TEGs is to retrieve usable energy from waste heat whose temperature is as low as 200∼300 degrees Celsius. Yet, the conversion efficiency of the current thermoelectric materials remains low at 5∼10%, which makes it difficult to diffuse TEGs in our society. In order to clarify required performances of TEGs to diffuse them in the future, this paper aims to assess the life cycle CO2 emissions (LCCO2) and life cycle cost (LCC) of TEGs based on several product lifecycle scenarios, each of which assumes different future situations in, e.g., conversion efficiency of TEGs. In this paper, we focus on TEGs for passenger automobiles since a range of the temperatures of their exhaust gas is suitable for TEGs. Additionally, we focus on bismuth telluride (Bi-Te) materials to develop TEGs since they have already been available for commercial use. A case study of installing Bi-Te TEGs in passenger automobiles is carried out. The region of interest is Suita City, Osaka, Japan. By describing two scenarios that assume different conversion efficiency of thermoelectric materials, we compare assessment results from the viewpoints of LCCO2 and LCC. The results reveal that using TEGs has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions of the city by 0.07∼0.30%. It is also shown that the TEG cost needs to be drastically reduced to make the usage of TEGs profitable.Copyright

Formalizing Scenario Design Processes to Plan Long-term Business Strategies for Sustainability

Due to growing concern on sustainability, manufacturing companies need to plan long-term strategies to envision their pathways toward sustainable business. Designing scenarios is a core approach to examining business strategies by drawing possible future situations. This paper aims to formalize processes to design scenarios for planning business strategies for sustainability. These processes involve the reuse of existing sustainability scenarios to help companies’ strategists describe business environments that might occur. The results of describing a scenario regarding solar panel business demonstrate that the method makes it easier to describe detailed business environments and business strategies based on an existing energy scenario.