Hasan Dudu

Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture

This report presents potential effects of twelve free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU FTA agenda. It sheds some light on relatively balanced cumulated impacts in terms of trade, production and price for the EU agricultural sector as a whole, while quantifying also the market development for specific agricultural sectors. Different from a forecast exercise, it compares a conservative and an ambitious FTA scenario with a business as usual (reference) scenario.

Boosting the Fertilizer Production in Kenya: a CGE analysis

Food security remains a key challenge in many Sub-Saharan African countries and in Kenya in particular. Kenya addresses this concern with a noteworthy policy mix, aiming at giving to the agricultural sector a leading task in improving food security. In this paper, through a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model specifically modified for the context of developing country analyses, we address the impacts of the construction of a new fertilizer plant on the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy. For the purpose of the study, a desegregated version of a 2014 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) has been developed. Results suggests that increasing domestic production of fertilizers do not fully achieve the objectives of reducing rural poverty and increasing agricultural production without complementary policies that help small-holder farmers to overcome the backward technology trap and give them better access to input and output markets.

Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020 (Summary report)

Analysing stylised scenarios with economic modelling tools reveals complex relations, incentives and trade-offs of the different policy instruments, in particular regarding the environmental dimension. Marginal areas of the EU are most vulnerable to drastic policy changes.