Hauke Fuehres

Predicting Asset Value through Twitter Buzz

This paper describes early work trying to predict financial market movement such as gold price, crude oil price, currency exchange rates and stock market indicators by analyzing Twitter posts. We collected Twitter feeds for 5 months obtaining a large set of emotional retweets originating from within the US, from which six public opinion time series containing the keywords “dollar% t ”, “

Measuring social capital in creative teams through sociometric sensors

% t ”, “gold% t ”, “oil% t , “job% t ” and “economy% t ” were extracted. Our results show that these variables are correlated to and even predictive of the financial market movement. Except “

Adding Taxonomies Obtained by Content Clustering to Semantic Social Network Analysis

% t ”, all other five public opinion time series are identified by a Granger-causal relationship with certain market movements. It is demonstrated that daily changes in the volume of economic topic retweeting seem to match the value shift occurring in the corresponding market next day.

Choosing the right friends – predicting success of startup entrepreneurs and innovators through their online social network structure

We describe the results of an experiment capturing the face-to-face ‘honest signals’ of knowledge workers through sociometric badges. We find that collective creativity of teams is a function of the aggregated social capital of members. The higher it is, the higher their creative output. We collected communication data of 14 graduate students and their instructor during a one-week seminar, comparing it against the creative output of their teamwork. As a second component of social capital we also measured the level of trust team members show to each other through surveys. We find that the more team members directly interact with each other face-to-face, and the more they trust other team members, the more creative and of higher quality the result of their teamwork is.

“Only Say Something When You Have Something to Say”: Identifying Creatives Through Their Communication Patterns

This paper introduces a novel method to analyze the content of communication in social networks. Content clustering methods are used to extract a taxonomy of concepts from each analyzed communication archive. Those taxonomies are hierarchical categorizations of the concepts discussed in the analyzed communication archives. Concepts are based on terms extracted from the communication’s content. The resulting taxonomy provides insights into the communication not possible through conventional social network analysis.

Predicting Stock Market Indicators Through Twitter “I hope it is not as bad as I fear”

We compare the success of startup entrepreneurs and innovators with their social networking behaviour. In particular, we analyse the LinkedIn, Facebook, and e-mail networks of swissnex Boston, Switzerland’s science and technology outpost in Boston, connecting Swiss and US entrepreneurs and academics. In our analysis, we focus on the participants of two Swiss entrepreneurship-coaching programmes, venture leaders and VentureKick. We find that the more central actors are in the different types of networks, the more successful they are, proximity to key people also correlates with success. In addition, we detect indicators for the key role of ETH Zurich for the creation of new startups. On the theoretical side, we add to emergent research comparing online networks to real-world networks, confirming the value of pre-existing social capital acquired attending a selective university. On the practical side, our results have key implications for entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and organisers of entrepreneurshi...

Towards "Honest Signals" of Creativity - Identifying Personality Characteristics Through Microscopic Social Network Analysis

We study the communication patterns of particularly creative people in the R&D department of a global energy firm through their e-mail communication. We find that the most creative staff members, measured through patents, publications, and awards, are less central in the full corporate network, but more responsive and responded to, which we take as a proxy for passion and respect.