Heather Sangster

The significance of Gilbert F. White’s 1945 paper ‘Human adjustment to floods’ in the development of risk and hazard management:

Few publications may claim to have transcended the original field in which they were written, by shaping a wide range of research areas and philosophies. In this short paper we reflect on the manner in which Gilbert F. White’s 1945 publication ‘Human adjustment to floods’ has not only shaped how we study and perceive flooding, but has also had a significance beyond its original aims, revolutionizing the ways in which hazard and risk are conceptualized more generally. Before considering the impact of ‘Human adjustment to floods’, we briefly review academic understanding of floods in the decades leading up to the 1940s and later place the 1945 paper in the context of White’s subsequent contributions to research which both developed and built on his ideas.

The co-evolution of historical source materials in the geophysical, hydrological and meteorological sciences: learning from the past and moving forward

Historical data sources are used by a wide variety of disciplines, but rarely do they look outside their particular research fields at how others are using and applying historical data. The use and application of historical data has grown rapidly over the last couple of decades within the meteorological, geophysical and hydrological disciplines, but have done so relatively independently. By coevolving, each discipline has developed separate themes or areas, with varying degrees of uptake beyond their academic communities. We find that whilst the geophysical discipline has been relatively successful in engaging with international policymakers and stakeholders, this has not been reflected within the meteorological or hydrological disciplines to date. This disparity has occurred for a variety of reasons, including varying scales of disaster and social, political and cultural structures. In examining current developments within the disciplines, evidence suggests that this disparity is lessening, as each are using online databases and some citizen science, but that they continue to evolve independently with little unifying structure or purpose. This continued autonomy makes multi-hazard analysis challenging which, considering the potential that historical datasets present in the emerging field of multi-hazards analysis, is a considerable hindrance to this field of research. In looking forward, opportunities emerge for improved understanding of the risks presented to societies by natural hazards in the past, but also for examining how resilience, behaviour and adaptation alter during periods of repose.

Simulating a century of soil erosion for agricultural catchment management

Agricultural land management requires strategies to reduce impacts on soil and water resources while maintaining food production. Models that capture the effects of agricultural and conservation practices on soil erosion and sediment delivery can help to address this challenge. Historic records of climatic variability and agricultural change over the last century also offer valuable information for establishing extended baselines against which to evaluate management scenarios. Here, we present an approach that combines centennialscale reconstructions of climate and agricultural land cover with modelling across four lake catchments in the UK where radiometric dating provides a record of lake sedimentation. We compare simulations using MMF-TWI, a catchment-scale model developed for humid agricultural landscapes that incorporates representation of seasonal variability in vegetation