Heinrich Bohlmann

Predicting the economic impact of the 2010 FIFA World Cup on South Africa

The impact of the sporting industry on economic decision making has increased dramatically since the global media explosion in the 1980s. Tourism and advertising revenues generated by mega-events such as World Cups or Olympic Games have become a major boost to the economies of hosting nations. In addition, globalisation has placed great emphasis on the importance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), especially to developing countries. This paper seeks to examine the impact of the 2010 FIFA World Cup on the South African economy. Using a 32-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the various shocks on the economy, such as infrastructure developments, increased tourism and financing implications, are modelled. Results are shown and carefully explained within the context of the model. It is found that in the short term, there would only be a favourable outcome in the economy should financing be shared between higher present taxes and revenue generated from future economic growth and private investment.

Quantifying shifts in primary factor demand in the South African economy

ABSTRACT This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified.