Roula Inglesi-Lotz

The influence of scientific research output of academics on economic growth in South Africa: an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) application

An increasing number of researchers have recently shown interest in the relationship between economic growth of a country and its research output, measured in scientometric indicators. The answer is not only of theoretical interest but it can also influence the specific policies aimed at the improvement of a country’s research performance. Our paper focuses on this relationship. We argue that research output is a manifestation of the improvement of human capital in the economy. We examine this relationship specifically in South Africa for the period 1980–2008. Using the autoregressive distributed lag method, we investigate the relationship between GDP and the comparative research performance of the country in relation to the rest of the world (the share of South African papers compared to the rest of the world). The relationship is confirmed for individual fields of science (biology and biochemistry, chemistry, material sciences, physics, psychiatry and psychology). The results of this study indicate that in South Africa for the period 1980–2008 the comparative performance of the research output can be considered as a factor affecting the economic growth of the country. Similarly, the results confirm the results of Vinkler (2008) and Lee et al. (2011). In contrast, economic growth did not influence the research output of the country for the same period. Policy implications are also discussed.

On the causality and determinants of energy and electricity demand in South Africa: A review

ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to review, summarize, and critically assess the academic studies that have dealt with either the causal relationship between energy consumption and growth or the determinants of energy demand in South Africa from 2007 and outline recent forecasts for electricity demand. The results of this review aim to identify gaps in the existing research. From a policy point of view, the findings of this effort have the potential to inform the relevant stakeholders to make appropriate interventions to improve the status quo of the energy sector. The results have indicated that studies examining the causality direction between energy (electricity) consumption and economic growth have failed to reach a consensus. The main differences identified were the time periods examined, the econometric approaches, and the variables included in the estimations. Another potential reason for the results is the availability—or lack thereof—of data specific for the country. On the other side, the studies looking at the factor affecting energy (electricity) demand have agreed that economic growth or income or output are considered significant factors. The role of prices was debatable among different studies. This has become more apparent when reviewing the few forecasting efforts in the country that resulted in conflicting results.

Time-varying causality between research output and economic growth in US

This main purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between knowledge (research output) and economic growth in US over 1981–2011. To overcome the issues of ignoring possible instability and hence, falsely assuming a constant relationship through the years, we use bootstrapped Granger non-causality tests with fixed-size rolling-window to analyze time-varying causal links between two series. Instead of just performing causality tests on the full sample which assumes a single causality relationship, we also perform Granger causality tests on the rolling sub-samples with a fixed-window size. Unlike the full-sample Granger causality test, this method allows us to capture any structural shifts in the model, as well as, the evolution of causal relationships between sub-periods, with the bootstrapping approach controlling for small-sample bias. Full-sample bootstrap causality tests reveal no causal relationship between research and growth in the US. Further, parameter stability tests indicate that there were structural shifts in the relationship, and hence, we cannot entirely rely on full-sample results. The bootstrap rolling-window causality tests show that during the sub-periods of 2003–2005 and 2009, GDP Granger caused research output; while in 2010, the causality ran in the opposite direction. Using a two-state regime switching vector smooth autoregressive model, we find unidirectional Granger causality from research output to GDP in the full sample.

Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa

The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become a major focus in the tourism economics literature. Results obtained in recent studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analysed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use rolling window and time-varying coefficient estimation methods to analyse the parameter stability and Granger causality based on a vector error correction model (VECM). When applied to South Africa for the period 1960–2011, the findings are as follows: results from the full-sample VECM indicate that there is no Granger causality between tourism receipts and GDP, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space representation show that tourism receipts have positive-predictive content for GDP for the entire period, with the exception of the period between 1985 and 1990. Full-sample time-varying causality tests show bidirectional strong causality between tourism receipts and GDP.

Does research output cause economic growth or vice versa? Evidence from 34 OECD countries

The causal relation between research and economic growth is of particular importance for political support of science and technology as well as for academic purposes. This article revisits the causal relationship between research articles published and economic growth in Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries for the period 1981–2011, using bootstrap panel causality analysis, which accounts for cross‐section dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The article, by the use of the specific method and the choice of the country group, makes a contribution to the existing literature. Our empirical results support unidirectional causality running from research output (in terms of total number of articles published) to economic growth for the US, Finland, Hungary, and Mexico; the opposite causality from economic growth to research articles published for Canada, France, Italy, New Zealand, the UK, Austria, Israel, and Poland; and no causality for the rest of the countries. Our findings provide important policy implications for research policies and strategies for OECD countries.

Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing

ABSTRACT Recent studies have shown increasing interest on the relationship between research output and economic growth. The study of such a relationship is not only of theoretical interest, but it can also influence specific policies to improve the quality, and probably the quantity of research output. This article has studied this relationship in G7 countries using the asymmetric panel causality test of Hatemi-J (2011). Our results show that only the UK shows a causal relationship from the output of research to real GDP. However, when the signs of variations are taken into account, there is an asymmetric causality running from negative research output shocks to negative real GDP shocks.

The causal relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth: evidence from the G7 countries

Abstract This article re-examines the nature of the causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in G7 countries over the period from 1965 to 2011. We employ the Granger causality procedure proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) which takes into account cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. Our overall empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis for the panel while the individual country results confirm the same result with the exception of the case of UK, where the conservation hypothesis is confirmed, showing that GDP causes natural gas consumption in the country. These results make policies that promote the consumption of natural gas risk-free with regard to their effects to the economic growth and development levels.

Convergence of greenhouse gas emissions among G7 countries

The convergence of air pollutants is a major concern for policymakers since all the countries pursue the goal of allocating the emissions equally internationally in the future. Hence, the examination of the existence of convergence is important for the climate change protection of the earth. In this article, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions convergence among the G7 countries for the period between 1990 and 2011 is examined using the pairwise testing technique proposed by that aims to analyse probabilistic convergence across a large number of cross-sectional units. Next, we proceed with multivariate tests for stability and the existence of unit roots. Finally, the analysis is complemented by the use of the panel stationarity test accounting for structural changes as proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) test. Overall, the results do not confirm the hypothesis of convergence for the countries in question, although, more recently, the countries have shown a small decline in their GHG emissions.

The causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in the BRICS countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests

ABSTRACT This paper empirically analyzes the causal linkages between coal consumption and economic growth in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) using annual data from 1985 to 2009. Due to the common directions and principals of the BRICS countries with regard to energy, the employed panel causality methodology is chosen to account for both cross-section dependence and heterogeneity across countries. Empirical results provide evidence of no causal relationship between the two variables, suggesting that neither coal consumption nor economic growth is sensitive to each other. While this finding vindicates the neutrality hypothesis overall for the BRICS countries, the individual country results provide support for a unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to economic growth for China; the opposite is true for South Africa and bidirectional for India. Policies to reduce coal consumption will have a detrimental effect on India’s economy. However, in the rest of the countries, policy makers should aim to step further from fossil-fuel generation – and specifically coal – of energy without the potential risks of having an impact to the economic growth and development.

Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in South Africa : evidence from the bootstrap rolling-window approach

ABSTRACT This article examines the relationship between energy consumption (EC) and economic growth for South Africa for the period 1971–2009. Most studies examining this relationship do assume that it remains constant through the years; however, the reality might be different since many factors can affect the existence and direction of this causality. This article looks at a bivariate vector autoregressive process and takes into consideration any instability in the model using bootstrap rolling Granger non-causality tests. Full-sample Granger causality tests report no causal relationship between the two variables. Moreover, parameter stability tests detect instability in the model which means that the full-sample Granger causality results are not valid. We therefore allow for the possibility of structural breaks by using bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality tests. Although our results are not very strong, we do however find a sub-period from 1987 to 1989 where EC has a causal effect on gross domestic product growth. Except for this brief sub-period, the results show no linkage between economic growth and EC.