Heinz Schandl

Methodology and Indicators of Economy-wide Material Flow Accounting

Summary This contribution presents the state of the art of economywide material flow accounting. Starting from a brief recollection of the intellectual and policy history of this approach, we outline system definition, key methodological assumptions, and derived indicators. The next section makes an effort to establish data reliability and uncertainty for a number of existing multinational (European and global) material flow accounting (MFA) data compilations and discusses sources of inconsistencies and variations for some indicators and trends. The results show that the methodology has reached a certain maturity: Coefficients of variation between databases lie in the range of 10% to 20%, and correlations between databases across countries amount to an average R 2 of 0.95. After discussing some of the research frontiers for further methodological development, we conclude that the material flow accounting framework and the data generated have reached a maturity that warrants material flow indicators to complement traditional economic and demographic information in providing a sound basis for discussing national and international policies for sustainable resource use.

Changes in the United Kingdom's natural relations in terms of society's metabolism and land-use from 1850 to the present day

In this paper we present our understanding of how society and nature have interacted in the course of history in terms of society’s metabolic interchange with the biophysical environment. Presenting a theoretical model, we begin by focusing on the interface between society and nature (society’s natural relations) as conceptualized by the idea of metabolism, which draws upon Marxist theory complemented by a systems approach. The concept of metabolism portrays society as a system, which has to establish and maintain a permanent throughput of energy and matter to produce and maintain society’s material components. The amount of resource flow is operationalized by using material and energy flow accounting methods. Empirically, these methods are applied to the UK’s economy in a time-series approach from 1850 to the present day. We discuss different aggregates of inputs such as domestic material extraction, foreign trade of materials, energy input and, additionally, give an account of land-use change. Obviously, these changing natural relations are linked to socio-economic activities. Hence, we make a first attempt to discuss different periods of socio-economic development by drawing from a regulation approach and try to link them to physical indicators such as direct material and energy input and domestic material consumption (DMC). Thereby, we hope to contribute to a historical understanding of socio-economically driven environmental change within the framework of ecological economics.

Social Metabolism and Labour in a Local Context: Changing Environmental Relations on Trinket Island

From a material and energetic perspective, this paper outlines the patterns of society-nature interactions of a local horticultural, hunter-and-gatherer population that lives on a remote island between India and Indonesia. Based on empirical research, we present several indicators to show an economic portfolio of a local society that combines horticulture, hunting and gathering activities with elements of industrialisation and market economy. In describing these environmental relations, the study narrows its focus to the use of three socio-ecological concepts, namely socio-economic metabolism, colonising natural processes, and the energetic return on investment. Using these concepts, we show the dynamics of social and environmental transformation at a local level and the consequences this may have for sustainability.

Development and Dematerialization: An International Study

Economic development and growth depend on growing levels of resource use, and result in environmental impacts from large scale resource extraction and emissions of waste. In this study, we examine the resource dependency of economic activities over the past several decades for a set of countries comprising developing, emerging and mature industrialized economies. Rather than a single universal industrial development pathway, we find a diversity of economic dependencies on material use, made evident through cluster analysis. We conduct tests for relative and absolute decoupling of the economy from material use, and compare these with similar tests for decoupling from carbon emissions, both for single countries and country groupings using panel analysis. We show that, over the longer term, emerging and developing countries tend to have significantly larger material-economic coupling than mature industrialized economies (although this effect may be enhanced by trade patterns), but that the contrary is true for short-term coupling. Moreover, we demonstrate that absolute dematerialization limits economic growth rates, while the successful industrialization of developing countries inevitably requires a strong material component. Alternative development priorities are thus urgently needed both for mature and emerging economies: reducing absolute consumption levels for the former, and avoiding the trap of resource-intensive economic and human development for the latter.

Global socioeconomic material stocks rise 23-fold over the 20th century and require half of annual resource use

Significance A large part of all primary materials extracted globally accumulates in stocks of manufactured capital, including in buildings, infrastructure, machinery, and equipment. These in-use stocks of materials provide important services for society and the economy and drive long-term demand for materials and energy. Configuration and quantity of stocks determine future waste flows and recycling potential and are key to closing material loops and reducing waste and emissions in a circular economy. A better understanding of in-use material stocks and their dynamics is essential for sustainable development. We present a comprehensive estimate of global in-use material stocks and of related material flows, including a full assessment of uncertainties for the 20th century as we analyze changes in stock-flow relations. Human-made material stocks accumulating in buildings, infrastructure, and machinery play a crucial but underappreciated role in shaping the use of material and energy resources. Building, maintaining, and in particular operating in-use stocks of materials require raw materials and energy. Material stocks create long-term path-dependencies because of their longevity. Fostering a transition toward environmentally sustainable patterns of resource use requires a more complete understanding of stock-flow relations. Here we show that about half of all materials extracted globally by humans each year are used to build up or renew in-use stocks of materials. Based on a dynamic stock-flow model, we analyze stocks, inflows, and outflows of all materials and their relation to economic growth, energy use, and CO2 emissions from 1900 to 2010. Over this period, global material stocks increased 23-fold, reaching 792 Pg (±5%) in 2010. Despite efforts to improve recycling rates, continuous stock growth precludes closing material loops; recycling still only contributes 12% of inflows to stocks. Stocks are likely to continue to grow, driven by large infrastructure and building requirements in emerging economies. A convergence of material stocks at the level of industrial countries would lead to a fourfold increase in global stocks, and CO2 emissions exceeding climate change goals. Reducing expected future increases of material and energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions will require decoupling of services from the stocks and flows of materials through, for example, more intensive utilization of existing stocks, longer service lifetimes, and more efficient design.

THE DEMATERIALIZATION POTENTIAL OF THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY

In this paper we test the long term dematerialization potential for Australia in terms of materials, energy, and water use as well as CO2 emissions, by introducing concrete targets for major sectors. Major improvements in the construction and housing, transport and mobility, and food and nutrition sectors in the Australian economy, if coupled with significant reductions in the resource export sectors, would substantially improve the current material, energy and emission intensive pattern of Australia’s production and consumption system. Using the Australian Stocks and Flows framework we model all system interactions to understand the contributions of large scale changes in technology, infrastructure and lifestyle to decoupling the economy from the environment. The modelling shows a considerable reduction in natural resource use, while energy and water use decrease to a much lesser extent because a reduction in natural resource consumption creates a trade-off in energy use. It also shows that trade and economic growth may continue, but at a reduced rate compared with a business-as-usual scenario. The findings of our modelling are discussed in light of the large body of literature on dematerialization, eco-efficiency and rebound effects that may occur when efficiency is increased. We argue that Australia cannot rely on incremental efficiency gains but has to undergo a sustainability transition to achieve a low carbon future to keep in line with the international effort to avoid climate change and resource use conflicts. We touch upon the institutional changes that would be required to guide a sustainability transition in the Australian economy, such as, for instance, an emission trading scheme.

Stochastic Analysis and Forecasts of the Patterns of Speed, Acceleration, and Levels of Material Stock Accumulation in Society.

The recent acceleration of urbanization and industrialization of many parts of the developing world, most notably in Asia, has resulted in a fast-increasing demand for and accumulation of construction materials in society. Despite the importance of physical stocks in society, the empirical assessment of total material stock of buildings and infrastructure and reasons for its growth have been underexplored in the sustainability literature. We propose an innovative approach for explaining material stock dynamics in society and create a country typology for stock accumulation trajectories using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology, a stochastic approach commonly used in business studies and economics to inspect and forecast time series. This enables us to create scenarios for future demand and accumulation of building materials in society, including uncertainty estimates. We find that the so-far overlooked aspect of acceleration trends of material stock accumulation holds the key to explaining material stock growth, and that despite tremendous variability in country characteristics, stock accumulation is limited to only four archetypal growth patterns. The ability of nations to change their pattern will be a determining factor for global sustainability.

Sustainable urban systems: Co-design and framing for transformation

Rapid urbanisation generates risks and opportunities for sustainable development. Urban policy and decision makers are challenged by the complexity of cities as social–ecological–technical systems. Consequently there is an increasing need for collaborative knowledge development that supports a whole-of-system view, and transformational change at multiple scales. Such holistic urban approaches are rare in practice. A co-design process involving researchers, practitioners and other stakeholders, has progressed such an approach in the Australian context, aiming to also contribute to international knowledge development and sharing. This process has generated three outputs: (1) a shared framework to support more systematic knowledge development and use, (2) identification of barriers that create a gap between stated urban goals and actual practice, and (3) identification of strategic focal areas to address this gap. Developing integrated strategies at broader urban scales is seen as the most pressing need. The knowledge framework adopts a systems perspective that incorporates the many urban trade-offs and synergies revealed by a systems view. Broader implications are drawn for policy and decision makers, for researchers and for a shared forward agenda.

Material Flow Analysis

All societies depend on natural resources to feed, house, and transport people and to produce the goods and services everyday life depends upon. The magnitude of the physical interaction between society and nature may be measured through material flow accounting. The accounts measure the amount of materials extracted domestically – biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores, and construction materials – as well as traded materials and also measure the disposal of waste and emissions to the environment by taking a whole life cycle perspective. The accounts measure yearly material flows in tonnes and provide an information base about the scale of natural resource use that underpins human development and economic prosperity. Material flow accounts have become part of the system of integrated economy–environmental accounts and inform modern environmental policy making that understands environmental outcomes are greatly related to the process of consumption and production. Indicators based on material flow accounts play a major role in the environmental policy process and figure prominently in international debates about sustainable consumption and production, resource efficiency and decoupling, and the green economy.

The Effects of Climate and Socio‐Demographics on Direct Household Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Australia

Household CO2 emissions are a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions and consequently climate warming. Despite this, there has been little consideration of how household CO2 emissions may be affected by changes in climate. The aim of the present study has been to investigate the way climate, as well as socio-demographic characteristics, may affect household CO2 emissions produced from energy use. A national online survey was conducted to determine current household CO2 emissions in Australia as well as capture the ownership and use of household appliances and installations. Electricity and gas-based emissions as well as the ownership of a variety of household appliances and installations were found to be strongly associated with temperature. Electricity and gas emissions were found to decrease as annual average temperatures increase. However, as temperatures continue to rise under climate change this pattern may be reversed owing to increased reliance on air conditioners. One option for preventing this from occurring is to encourage houses to adopt more solar-passive installations. Although this may be expensive, households with higher emissions tend to have higher incomes, indicating that they may have the capacity to pay for such installations.