Helen F. Dacre

IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties.

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of wea...

The Spatial Distribution and Evolution Characteristics of North Atlantic Cyclones

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is produced using an objective method of identifying cyclones based on gradients of 1-km height wet-bulb potential temperature. Cyclone track and genesis density statistics are analyzed and this method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods. The North Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Cyclones are grouped according to their genesis location and the corresponding lysis regions are identified. Most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and the sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher 1-km height relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of preexisting “parent” cyclones. The evolution characteristics of composite west and east Atlantic cyclones have been compared. The ratio of their upper- to lower-level forcing indicates that type B cyclones are predominant in both the west and east Atlantic, with strong upper- and lower-level features. Among the remaining cyclones, there is a higher proportion of type C cyclones in the east Atlantic, whereas types A and C are equally frequent in the west Atlantic.

How Do Atmospheric Rivers Form

AbstractThe term “atmospheric river” is used to describe corridors of strong water vapor transport in the troposphere. Filaments of enhanced water vapor, commonly observed in satellite imagery extending from the subtropics to the extratropics, are routinely used as a proxy for identifying these regions of strong water vapor transport. The precipitation associated with these filaments of enhanced water vapor can lead to high-impact flooding events. However, there remains some debate as to how these filaments form. In this paper, the authors analyze the transport of water vapor within a climatology of wintertime North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results show that atmospheric rivers are formed by the cold front that sweeps up water vapor in the warm sector as it catches up with the warm front. This causes a narrow band of high water vapor content to form ahead of the cold front at the base of the warm conveyor belt airflow. Thus, water vapor in the cyclone’s warm sector, not long-distance transport of w...

Large‐scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

An Extratropical Cyclone Atlas: A Tool for Illustrating Cyclone Structure and Evolution Characteristics

Extratropical cyclone lifecycles have been studied extensively with the aim of understanding the dynamical mechanisms involved in their development. Previous work has often been based on subjective analysis of individual case studies. Such case studies have contributed heavily to the generation of conceptual models of extratropical cyclones that provide a framework for understanding the dynamical evolution of cyclones. These conceptual models are widely used in educational meteorology courses throughout the world to illustrate the basic structure and evolution of extratropical cyclones. This article presents a database of extratropical cyclone composites which highlight the average structure and evolution of 20 years of extratropical cyclones, as opposed to individual case studies. The composite fields are achieved by combining a database containing cyclone tracks from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2009, 6 hourly) with the full 3D ERA-Interim reanalysis fields. Vertical and horizontal composites of cyclone structure for cyclones generated in the Atlantic and Pacific regions identifying features such as the relative positions of cold, warm and occluded fronts and their associated wind and cloud patterns are shown. In addition the evolution of cyclonic flows such as the warm and cold conveyor belts and dry intrusion are illustrated. A webpage containing an archive of the composited data is freely available for educational purposes.

A case study of boundary layer ventilation by convection and coastal processes

It is often assumed that ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer is weak in the absence of fronts, but is this always true? In this paper we investigate the processes responsible for ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer during a nonfrontal day that occurred on 9 May 2005 using the UK Met Office Unified Model. Pollution sources are represented by the constant emission of a passive tracer everywhere over land. The ventilation processes observed include shallow convection, turbulent mixing followed by large-scale ascent, a sea breeze circulation and coastal outflow. Vertical distributions of tracer are validated qualitatively with AMPEP (Aircraft Measurement of chemical Processing Export fluxes of Pollutants over the UK) CO aircraft measurements and are shown to agree impressively well. Budget calculations of tracers are performed in order to determine the relative importance of these ventilation processes. Coastal outflow and the sea breeze circulation were found to ventilate 26% of the boundary layer tracer by sunset of which 2% was above 2 km. A combination of coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing and large-scale ascent ventilated 46% of the boundary layer tracer, of which 10% was above 2 km. Finally, coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing, large-scale ascent and shallow convection together ventilated 52% of the tracer into the free troposphere, of which 26% was above 2 km. Hence this study shows that significant ventilation of the boundary layer can occur in the absence of fronts (and thus during high-pressure events). Turbulent mixing and convection processes can double the amount of pollution ventilated from the boundary layer.

Volcanic ash layer depth: Processes and mechanisms

The long duration of the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption provided a unique opportunity to measure a widely dispersed volcanic ash cloud. Layers of volcanic ash were observed by the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network with a mean depth of 1.2 km and standard deviation of 0.9 km. In this paper we evaluate the ability of the Met Offices Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) to simulate the observed ash layers and examine the processes controlling their depth. NAME simulates distal ash layer depths exceptionally well with a mean depth of 1.2 km and standard deviation of 0.7 km. The dominant process determining the depth of ash layers over Europe is the balance between the vertical wind shear (which acts to reduce the depth of the ash layers) and vertical turbulent mixing (which acts to deepen the layers). Interestingly, differential sedimentation of ash particles and the volcano vertical emission profile play relatively minor roles.

Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption and the May 2011 Grimsvotn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.

Improving the Health Forecasting Alert System for Cold Weather and Heat-Waves In England: A Proof-of-Concept Using Temperature-Mortality Relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.