Suzanne L. Gray

CISK or WISHE as the Mechanism for Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Examination of conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) and wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), two proposed mechanisms for tropical cyclone and polar low intensification, suggests that the sensitivity of the intensification rate of these disturbances to surface properties, such as surface friction and moisture supply, will be different for the two mechanisms. These sensitivities were examined by perturbing the surface characteristics in a numerical model with explicit convection. The intensification rate was found to have a strong positive dependence on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while remaining largely insensitive to the frictional drag coefficient. CISK does not predict the observed dependence of vortex intensification rate on the heat and moisture transfer coefficients, nor the insensitivity to the frictional drag coefficient since it anticipates that intensification rate is controlled by frictional convergence in the boundary layer. Since neither conditional instability nor boundary moisture content showed any significant sensitivity to the transfer coefficients, this is true of CISK using both the convective closures of Ooyama and of Charney and Eliassen. In comparison, the WISHE intensification mechanism does predict the observed increase in intensification rate with heat and moisture transfer coefficients, while not anticipating a direct influence from surface friction.

THE GREENLAND FLOW DISTORTION EXPERIMENT

Greenland has a major influence on the atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic-western European region, dictating the location and strength of mesoscale weather systems around the coastal seas of Greenland and directly influencing synoptic-scale weather systems both locally and downstream over Europe. High winds associated with the local weather systems can induce large air-sea fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum in a region that is critical to the overturning of the thermohaline circulation, and thus play a key role in controlling the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system. The Greenland Flow Distortion Experiment (GFDex) is investigating the role of Greenland in defining the structure and predictability of both local and downstream weather systems through a program of aircraft-based observation and numerical modeling. The GFDex observational program is centered upon an aircraft-based field campaign in February and March 2007, at the dawn of the International Polar Year. Twelve missions were fl...

The Spatial Distribution and Evolution Characteristics of North Atlantic Cyclones

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is produced using an objective method of identifying cyclones based on gradients of 1-km height wet-bulb potential temperature. Cyclone track and genesis density statistics are analyzed and this method is found to compare well with other cyclone identification methods. The North Atlantic storm track is reproduced along with the major regions of genesis. Cyclones are grouped according to their genesis location and the corresponding lysis regions are identified. Most of the cyclones that cross western Europe originate in the east Atlantic where the baroclinicity and the sea surface temperature gradients are weak compared to the west Atlantic. East Atlantic cyclones also have higher 1-km height relative vorticity and lower mean sea level pressure at their genesis point than west Atlantic cyclones. This is consistent with the hypothesis that they are secondary cyclones developing on the trailing fronts of preexisting “parent” cyclones. The evolution characteristics of composite west and east Atlantic cyclones have been compared. The ratio of their upper- to lower-level forcing indicates that type B cyclones are predominant in both the west and east Atlantic, with strong upper- and lower-level features. Among the remaining cyclones, there is a higher proportion of type C cyclones in the east Atlantic, whereas types A and C are equally frequent in the west Atlantic.

Cloud Banding and Winds in Intense European Cyclones: Results from the DIAMET Project

AbstractThe Diabatic Influences on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Storms (DIAMET) project aims to improve forecasts of high-impact weather in extratropical cyclones through field measurements, high-resolution numerical modeling, and improved design of ensemble forecasting and data assimilation systems. This article introduces DIAMET and presents some of the first results. Four field campaigns were conducted by the project, one of which, in late 2011, coincided with an exceptionally stormy period marked by an unusually strong, zonal North Atlantic jet stream and a succession of severe windstorms in northwest Europe. As a result, December 2011 had the highest monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index (2.52) of any December in the last 60 years. Detailed observations of several of these storms were gathered using the U.K.’s BAe 146 research aircraft and extensive ground-based measurements. As an example of the results obtained during the campaign, observations are presented of Extratropical Cyclone Fri...

A case study of boundary layer ventilation by convection and coastal processes

It is often assumed that ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer is weak in the absence of fronts, but is this always true? In this paper we investigate the processes responsible for ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer during a nonfrontal day that occurred on 9 May 2005 using the UK Met Office Unified Model. Pollution sources are represented by the constant emission of a passive tracer everywhere over land. The ventilation processes observed include shallow convection, turbulent mixing followed by large-scale ascent, a sea breeze circulation and coastal outflow. Vertical distributions of tracer are validated qualitatively with AMPEP (Aircraft Measurement of chemical Processing Export fluxes of Pollutants over the UK) CO aircraft measurements and are shown to agree impressively well. Budget calculations of tracers are performed in order to determine the relative importance of these ventilation processes. Coastal outflow and the sea breeze circulation were found to ventilate 26% of the boundary layer tracer by sunset of which 2% was above 2 km. A combination of coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing and large-scale ascent ventilated 46% of the boundary layer tracer, of which 10% was above 2 km. Finally, coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing, large-scale ascent and shallow convection together ventilated 52% of the tracer into the free troposphere, of which 26% was above 2 km. Hence this study shows that significant ventilation of the boundary layer can occur in the absence of fronts (and thus during high-pressure events). Turbulent mixing and convection processes can double the amount of pollution ventilated from the boundary layer.

Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently, errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root-mean-square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby waves in winter season forecasts from three operational centers. Tropopause sharpness adjacent to ridges decreases with forecast lead time. It depends strongly on model resolution, even though models are examined on a common grid. Rossby wave amplitude reduces with lead 5 days, consistent with underrepresentation of diabatic modification and transport of air from the lower troposphere into upper tropospheric ridges, and with too weak humidity gradients across the tropopause. However, amplitude also decreases when resolution is decreased. Further work is necessary to isolate the contribution from errors in the representation of diabatic processes.

Sting jets in intense winter North-Atlantic windstorms

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact due to the strong surface winds and associated storm surges in coastal areas. Here we show that sting jets are a common feature of windstorms; up to a third of the 100 most intense North-Atlantic winter windstorms over the last two decades satisfy conditions for sting jets. The sting jet is a mesoscale descending airstream that can cause strong near-surface winds in the dry slot of the cyclone, a region not usually associated with strong winds. Despite their localized transient nature, these sting jets can cause significant damage, a prominent example being the storm that devastated southeast England on 16 October 1987. We present the first regional climatology of windstorms with sting jets. Previously analysed sting-jet cases appear to have been exceptional in their track over northwest Europe rather than in their strength.

Sting Jets in Simulations of a Real Cyclone by Two Mesoscale Models

The existence of sting jets as a potential source of damaging surface winds during the passage of extratropical cyclones has recently been recognized. However, there are still very few published studies on the subject. Furthermore, although it is known that other models are capable of reproducing sting jets, in the published literature only one numerical model [the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM)] has been used to numerically analyze these phenomena. This article aims to improve our understanding of the processes that contribute to the development of sting jets and show that model differences affect the evolution of modeled sting jets. A sting jet event during the passage of a cyclone over the United Kingdom on 26 February 2002 has been simulated using two mesoscale models, namely the MetUM and the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) model, to compare their performance. Given the known critical importance of vertical resolution in the simulation of sting jets, the vertical resolution of both models has been enhanced with respect to their operational versions. Both simulations have been verified against surface measurements of maximum gusts, satellite imagery, and Met Office operational synoptic analyses, as well as operational analyses from the ECMWF. It is shown that both models are capable of reproducing sting jets with similar, though not identical, features. Through the comparison of the results from these two models, the relevance of physical mechanisms, such as evaporative cooling and the release of conditional symmetric instability, in the generation and evolution of sting jets is also discussed.

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclone Lili (1996) and Its Crucial Contribution to a Moderate Extratropical Development

Abstract The transition that a tropical cyclone experiences as it moves into the extratropical environment (known as extratropical transition) can result in the decay or intensification of a baroclinic cyclone. The extratropical transition (ET) of Tropical Cyclone Lili (1996) in the North Atlantic resulted in a moderate extratropical development of a baroclinic cyclone. The impact of Lili in the extratropical development that occurred during its ET is investigated. Numerical experiments are performed using potential vorticity inversion and the Met Office Unified Model to forecast the extratropical development with and without the tropical cyclone in the initial conditions. In contrast with other case studies in the literature, Lili is shown to play a crucial role during its ET in the development of a baroclinic cyclone that occurred in the same region. A hypothesis of the possible scenarios of ET is presented that links the case-to-case variability of ET case studies in the literature with a classificatio...

Distinguishing the Cold Conveyor Belt and Sting Jet Airstreams in an Intense Extratropical Cyclone

AbstractStrong winds equatorward and rearward of a cyclone core have often been associated with two phenomena: the cold conveyor belt (CCB) jet and sting jets. Here, detailed observations of the mesoscale structure in this region of an intense cyclone are analyzed. The in situ and dropsonde observations were obtained during two research flights through the cyclone during the Diabatic Influences on Mesoscale Structures in Extratropical Storms (DIAMET) field campaign. A numerical weather prediction model is used to link the strong wind regions with three types of “airstreams” or coherent ensembles of trajectories: two types are identified with the CCB, hooking around the cyclone center, while the third is identified with a sting jet, descending from the cloud head to the west of the cyclone. Chemical tracer observations show for the first time that the CCB and sting jet airstreams are distinct air masses even when the associated low-level wind maxima are not spatially distinct. In the model, the CCB experie...