Helmut Jungermann

The Two Camps on Rationality

Publisher Summary Rationality is not a genuine term of scientific psychology but rather a concept of philosophy and economics. The most common and most relevant definition says that an action is rational if it is in line with the values and beliefs of the individual concerned; or more precisely, if it is logical or consistent as stated in a set of axioms. This definition specifies rational behavior normatively. Empirical research can study whether actual human behavior is rational in the sense that it obeys the norm. This chapter distinguishes two camps, one that points to the deficiency and one that argues for the efficiency of human judgment and decision. The members of the first camp—pessimists—claim that judgment and decision making under uncertainty often show systematic and serious errors because of in-built characteristics of the human cognitive system. The optimists of the other camp claim that judgment and decision are highly efficient and functional even in complex situations.

Advice giving and taking

Increasingly, people have to make personal decisions following some kind of consultation, e.g., decisions about medical treatment, genetic testing and financial investment. One approach suggested to deal with such problems is decision analysis. For reasons discussed in the paper, an alternative approach is proposed, advice giving and taking. This approach focuses on the difference in substantial expertise between consultant and client, implying in particular three features: consultants match options to clients rather than analyse the consequences of many alternatives; consultants and clients discuss one single option rather than multiple options; and clients reject or accept the consultants advice depending on the quality of the recommended option as well as on their trust in the consultant.

The Role of the Goal for Generating Actions

Abstract In this paper the initial phase of decision processes is conceptualized as the development of a structural representation of relevant knowledge. Goals are viewed as playing an important role in representing decision problems when they have some specific content and are not purely formal (e. g., maximize SEU). A network model is proposed far the representation of goals and actions, and several assumptions are made regarding the spread of activation through the network. In an experiment, hypotheses about the effects of two factors were investigated: Goal explidtness (E) was varied by presenting to Ss goal hierarchies of different specificity (one to three levels), and goal importance (R) was varied by letting Ss either rank-order goals with respect to their personal priorities, or not The results show that the number of actions generated increases with the degree of goal explidtness, thus supporting the Ss creative search process, whereas the number of actions is lower for Ss who focus on their own values compared to Ss who do not, thus pointing to ego involvement as a factor restricting creativity. On the other hand, the actions generated by the personally involved group were rated higher on goal achievement scales than the actions generated by the other group. The results are in accordance with the model which, however, needs elaboration.

Psychological Aspects of Scenarios

A major step in the evaluation of technologies, and policies concerning technologies, is often the development of scenarios describing possible futures under various conditions. The notion of scenario was introduced for military planning by Herman Kahn while at RAND Corporation in the 1950s. Since then, the scenario method has been applied in many areas of long-range policymaking. Typical examples are scenarios for U.S. agricultural policy (1), environmental policy (2), world energy supply strategy (3), helium storage policy (4), climate change (5), or aviation communications technology (6). A recent example are the four scenarios for energy policy in West Germany, developed by a Temporary Committee of the German Parliament. These scenarios describe alternative energy policy options for the next 50 years and represent a wide range of expectations, assumptions, goals, and values with respect to, for instance, population growth, lifestyle changes, economic growth, change of economic structure, and availability of energy resources and technologies for their transformation (7).

Zu Risiken und Nebenwirkungen fragen Sie Ihren Arzt oder Apotheker

Zusammenfassung. Patienten sollen uber Risiken von Behandlungsverfahren und Medikamenten, uber Unsicherheiten von Diagnosen und Tests, uber Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeiten von Erkrankungen usw. korrekt und angemessen aufgeklart werden. Sie sollen so daruber aufgeklart werden, dass sie die Information verstehen und ihre Entscheidung fur oder gegen eine Behandlung oder ein Medikament uberlegt treffen konnen. Aber welche Informationen sollen dem Patienten gegeben werden? Wie kann der Patient uber Unsicherheiten informiert werden? Welche Faktoren beeinflussen das Verstandnis von Unsicherheit? Im ersten Teil dieses Beitrages skizzieren wir einige Probleme vor dem Hintergrund der Forschung zur Risikokommunikation. Im zweiten Teil stellen wir zwei experimentelle Studien vor, in denen untersucht wurde, von welchen Faktoren die Interpretation verbaler Haufigkeitsausdrucke auf Beipackzetteln zu Medikamenten beeinflusst wird. In Studie 1 pruften wir, ob studentische Probanden verbale Angaben wie “selten“ oder “haufig...

Chapter 3 Causal Knowledge and the Expression of Uncertainty

Abstract A theoretical approach is suggested to bridge the gap between causal knowledge and subjective probability - two concepts treated in domains of cognitive psychology which generally ignore each other. In several experiments, hypotheses about the relation between causal knowledge and uncertainty were tested. One series of experiments focused on the effect of causal relations between two events on their (subjective) conjunctive probability. The results provided new insights in the relation between causality, event probability, and conjunction “error” and “fallacy”. The other series investigated the effect of ambiguity of information and validity of knowledge on probability judgments, based upon an elaborate theoretical conception of causal mental models. The proposed process model was strongly supported, and it is therefore suggested to pursue and expand such approaches in order to exploit the ideas, methods, and findings available in the psychology of knowledge representation and inferential processes on the one hand, and in the psychology of probability judgment and heuristic strategies on the other hand.

The use of causal knowledge for inferential reasoning

Experts from industry, economics, and science are asked to predict which information and communication techniques will be available in a private household in 25 years and which of these services will be supplied by state and industry. We ask social science experts to predict the effects of such techniques and services. While most expect a growth in these techniques and services, they disagree about their effects on social contacts, creativity among the young, and feelings of state control.

Inhalte und Konzepte der Risiko-Kommunikation

Die Diskussion um die technische, okonomische und soziale Entwicklung unserer Gesellschaft wird seit etwa einem Jahrzehnt vom Begriff des Risiko gepragt. Der Erfolg des Buches uber die “Risikogesellschaft” von BECK (1986) ist symptomatisch dafur, wie sehr dieser Begriff “Risiko” einen Nerv der Industriegesellschaft trifft. Ob man dies darauf zuruckfuhrt, das in der Industriegesellschaft die Risiken real zugenommen haben, oder darauf, das durch die zunehmende Erweiterung des Entscheidungsspielraumes einst quasi- naturliche Gefahren lediglich in Risiken transformiert worden sind, ist aus der Perspektive eines Beobachters der Risikodebatte gleichgultig. Ihm fallt zunachst einmal schlicht auf, das alle vom Risiko reden.

How people might process medical information: A ‘mental model’ perspective on the use of package inserts

Pharmaceutical drugs have become common in everyday life, having advantages and disadvantages. Almost everybody uses drugs at one time or another, seeking the benefits and accepting the risks.

Who Will Catch the Nagami Fever? Causal Inferences and Probability Judgment in Mental Models of Diseases

Explanation and prediction play an important role in medical decision making, particularly for diagnostic and treatment decisions. For the most part, explanations as well as predictions are derived from causal knowledge and have to be made under uncertainty. In cognitive psychology, these phenomena have been approached from two directions. On the one hand, there is research on knowledge representation and inferential reasoning (Holland et al. 1986; Anderson 1990). On the other hand, there is research on heuristics and biases in judgments under uncertainty (Kahneman et al. 1982; Rehm & Gadenne 1990). However, no exact models have yet been developed to describe the process that leads from a given knowledge base to judgments of probabilities, i.e., from causal knowledge about the world to subjective expressions of the uncertainty associated with explanations or predictions.