Helvio Astete

House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease of growing global health importance. Prevention efforts focus on mosquito control, with limited success. New insights into the spatiotemporal drivers of dengue dynamics are needed to design improved disease-prevention strategies. Given the restricted range of movement of the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, local human movements may be an important driver of dengue virus (DENV) amplification and spread. Using contact-site cluster investigations in a case-control design, we demonstrate that, at an individual level, risk for human infection is defined by visits to places where contact with infected mosquitoes is likely, independent of distance from the home. Our data indicate that house-to-house human movements underlie spatial patterns of DENV incidence, causing marked heterogeneity in transmission rates. At a collective level, transmission appears to be shaped by social connections because routine movements among the same places, such as the homes of family and friends, are often similar for the infected individual and their contacts. Thus, routine, house-to-house human movements do play a key role in spread of this vector-borne pathogen at fine spatial scales. This finding has important implications for dengue prevention, challenging the appropriateness of current approaches to vector control. We argue that reexamination of existing paradigms regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV and other vector-borne pathogens, especially the importance of human movement, will lead to improvements in disease prevention.

Temporal and Geographic Patterns of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Production in Iquitos, Peru

Abstract Large-scale longitudinal cohort studies are necessary to characterize temporal and geographic variation in Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) production patterns and to develop targeted dengue control strategies that will reduce disease. We carried out pupal/demographic surveys in a circuit of ≈6,000 houses, 10 separate times, between January 1999 and August 2002 in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We quantified the number of containers positive for Ae. aegypti larvae and/or pupae, containers holding pupae, and the absolute number of pupae by 4-mo sampling circuits and spatially by geographic area by using a geographic information system developed for the city. A total of 289,941 water-holding containers were characterized, of which 7.3% were positive for Ae. aegypti. Temporal and geographic variations were detected for all variables examined, and the relative importance of different container types for production of Ae. aegypti was calculated. Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae were detected in 64 types of containers. Consistent production patterns were observed for the lid status (lids: 32% wet containers, 2% pupal production), container location (outdoor: 43% wet containers, 85% pupal production), and method by which the container was filled with water (rain filled: 15% wet containers, 88.3% pupal production); these patterns were consistent temporally and geographically. We describe a new container category (nontraditional) that includes transient puddles, which were rare but capable of producing large numbers of pupae. Because of high variable pupal counts, four container categories (large tank, medium storage, miscellaneous, and nontraditional) should be targeted in addition to outdoor rain-filled containers that are not covered by a lid. The utility of targeted Ae. aegypti control is discussed, as well as the ability to achieve control objectives based on published but untested threshold values.

Adult Size and Distribution of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Associated with Larval Habitats in Iquitos, Peru

Abstract Adult mosquito size may be related to longevity, feeding frequency, and other factors that impact vectorial capacity. Various investigations have shown that characteristics of larval mosquito habitats influence adult size. We studied breeding container characteristics in relation to size and abundance of Aedes aegypti larvae and pupae in Iquitos, Peru, and compared these with the size of resulting adult females. During 22 May to 20 July 2000, immature mosquitoes were collected from 12,722 containers in 2,931 houses, of which 424 held ≥1 Ae. aegypti. A subsample of larvae and all 16,433 pupae detected was removed for study. Resting adult mosquitoes were also collected from the same houses as the immatures. Adult mosquito size was determined by measuring the wing lengths of 672 aspirated adults and 2,316 adult females that emerged from container-derived pupae. Immatures were most commonly found in rain-filled containers, located outside of houses, and without lids. The average wing length of females derived from pupae varied considerably (1.67–3.83 mm), with slightly less variation for females captured as adults (1.80–3.23 mm). Linear regression showed that average wing length of pupae-derived females was positively associated with presence of larvae, container-filling method, diameter of container, and density of females. Size of pupae-derived females was correlated with that of females captured in the same houses as adults. The geographic distribution of pupae and adults indicated that the spatial pattern for Ae. aegypti is heterogeneous, with areas of higher and lower abundance. These findings provide insight for more focused control efforts aimed at reducing Ae. aegypti-borne pathogens.

Evaluation of a sampling methodology for rapid assessment of Aedes aegypti infestation levels in Iquitos, Peru.

Abstract An epidemic of dengue during 2001 in Northwestern Peru reemphasized the need for efficient, accurate, and economical vector surveillance. Between November 1998 and January 1999, we carried out extensive entomological surveys in two neighborhoods of ≈600 contiguous houses located in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the Aedes aegypti (L.) rapid assessment survey strategy. Based on Pan American Health Organization recommendations, this strategy is used by the Peruvian Ministry of Health (MOH). In our analysis all household locations, including closed and unoccupied houses, were georeferenced and displayed in a geographic information system, which facilitated simulations of MOH surveys based on hypothetical systematic sampling transects. Larval, pupal, and adult mosquito indices were calculated for each simulation (n = 10) and compared with the indices calculated from the complete data set (n = 4). The range of indices calculated from simulations was moderately high, but included actual indices. For example, simulation ranges for house indices (HI, percentage of infested houses from complete survey) were 38–56% (45%), 36–42% (38%), 21–34% (30%), and 13–33% (27%) in four surveys. HI, Breteau index, pupae per hectare, adult index, and adults per hectare were more robust entomological indicators (coefficient of variation [CV]/mean = 0.1–2.9) than the container index, pupae per person, pupae per house, adults per person, and adults per house (CV/mean >20). Our results demonstrate that the MOH’s Ae. aegypti risk assessment program provides reasonable estimates of indices based on samples from every house. However, it is critical that future studies investigate the association of these indices with rates of virus transmission to determine whether sampling variability will negatively impact the application of indices in a public health context.

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Significance Using mathematical models to extend knowledge of pathogen transmission and recommend optimized control efforts is dependent on the accuracy of model parameters. The rate at which susceptible individuals become infected [the force of infection (FoI)] is one of the most important parameters, but due to data constraints it is often incorrectly assumed to be constant over time. Using a bespoke method for a 12-y longitudinal dataset of serotype-specific dengue virus (DENV) infections, we estimated time-varying, serotype-specific FoIs for all four DENV serotypes. The FoI varied markedly in time, which implies that DENV transmission dynamics are complex and are best summarized using time-dependent transmission parameters. Our results provide more accurate measures of virus transmission dynamics and a basis for improving selection of control and disease prevention strategies. Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the per-capita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects ∼390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotype-specific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0–0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49–4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs.

Evaluation of a sampling methodology for the Rapid Assessment of Aedes aegypti infestation levels in Iquitos, Perú

Abstract An epidemic of dengue during 2001 in Northwestern Peru reemphasized the need for efficient, accurate, and economical vector surveillance. Between November 1998 and January 1999, we carried out extensive entomological surveys in two neighborhoods of ≈600 contiguous houses located in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the Aedes aegypti (L.) rapid assessment survey strategy. Based on Pan American Health Organization recommendations, this strategy is used by the Peruvian Ministry of Health (MOH). In our analysis all household locations, including closed and unoccupied houses, were georeferenced and displayed in a geographic information system, which facilitated simulations of MOH surveys based on hypothetical systematic sampling transects. Larval, pupal, and adult mosquito indices were calculated for each simulation (n = 10) and compared with the indices calculated from the complete data set (n = 4). The range of indices calculated from simulations was moderately high, but included actual indices. For example, simulation ranges for house indices (HI, percentage of infested houses from complete survey) were 38–56% (45%), 36–42% (38%), 21–34% (30%), and 13–33% (27%) in four surveys. HI, Breteau index, pupae per hectare, adult index, and adults per hectare were more robust entomological indicators (coefficient of variation [CV]/mean = 0.1–2.9) than the container index, pupae per person, pupae per house, adults per person, and adults per house (CV/mean >20). Our results demonstrate that the MOH’s Ae. aegypti risk assessment program provides reasonable estimates of indices based on samples from every house. However, it is critical that future studies investigate the association of these indices with rates of virus transmission to determine whether sampling variability will negatively impact the application of indices in a public health context.

Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru

Introduction Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the worlds population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data. Methods We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases. Findings Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season. Conclusions Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Sampling Considerations for Designing Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Oviposition Studies in Iquitos, Peru: Substrate Preference, Diurnal Periodicity, and Gonotrophic Cycle Length

ABSTRACT When devising methods to sample Aedes aegypti (L.) eggs from naturally-occurring containers to investigate selective oviposition, failure to take into account certain aspects of Ae. aegypti behavior can bias study inferences. In Iquitos, Peru, we tested three assumptions related to designing Ae. aegypti oviposition field studies, as follows: 1) lining containers with paper as an oviposition substrate does not affect oviposition; 2) diurnal egg-laying activity peaks in the late afternoon or early evening, and there is little oviposition during midday; and 3) the gonotrophic cycle length of wild females averages from 3 to 4 d. When wild females were presented with containers lined and unlined with paper toweling, the presence of paper increased oviposition in plastic and metal containers, but had no effect in cement containers. Recording the number of eggs laid by Ae. aegypti every 2 h throughout the day delineated a bimodal diurnal oviposition pattern, with a small morning peak, decreased activity during midday, and a predominant peak in the late afternoon and evening from 16:00 to 20:00 h. Daily monitoring of captive individual F0 females revealed that the gonotrophic cycle length was typically 3–4 d for the Iquitos population. These findings will be used to adjust field study design to 1) account for sampling eggs using paper toweling, and 2) determine the time of day and number of days over which to sample Ae. aegypti eggs. We explored how failure to consider these behaviors could potentially bias field assessments of oviposition preferences.

Patterns of Geographic Expansion of Aedes aegypti in the Peruvian Amazon

Background and Objectives In the Peruvian Amazon, the dengue vector Aedes aegypti is abundant in large urban centers such as Iquitos. In recent years, it has also been found in a number of neighboring rural communities with similar climatic and socioeconomic conditions. To better understand Ae. aegypti spread, we compared characteristics of communities, houses, and containers in infested and uninfested communities. Methods We conducted pupal-demographic surveys and deployed ovitraps in 34 communities surrounding the city of Iquitos. Communities surveyed were located along two transects: the Amazon River and a 95km highway. We calculated entomological indices, mapped Ae. aegypti presence, and developed univariable and multivariable logistic regression models to predict Ae. aegypti presence at the community, household, or container level. Results Large communities closer to Iquitos were more likely to be infested with Ae. aegypti. Within infested communities, houses with Ae. aegypti had more passively-filled containers and were more often infested with other mosquito genera than houses without Ae. aegypti. For containers, large water tanks/drums and containers with solar exposure were more likely to be infested with Ae. aegypti. Maps of Ae. aegypti presence revealed a linear pattern of infestation along the highway, and a scattered pattern along the Amazon River. We also identified the geographical limit of Ae. aegypti expansion along the highway at 19.3 km south of Iquitos. Conclusion In the Peruvian Amazon, Ae. aegypti geographic spread is driven by human transportation networks along rivers and highways. Our results suggest that urban development and oviposition site availability drive Ae. aegypti colonization along roads. Along rivers, boat traffic is likely to drive long-distance dispersal via unintentional transport of mosquitoes on boats.

Determinants of heterogeneous blood feeding patterns by Aedes aegypti in Iquitos, Peru.

Background Heterogeneous mosquito biting results in different individuals in a population receiving an uneven number of bites. This is a feature of many vector-borne disease systems that, if understood, could guide preventative control efforts toward individuals who are expected to contribute most to pathogen transmission. We aimed to characterize factors determining biting patterns of Aedes aegypti, the principal mosquito vector of dengue virus. Methodology/Principal Findings Engorged female Ae. aegypti and human cheek swabs were collected from 19 houses in Iquitos, Peru. We recorded the body size, age, and sex of 275 consenting residents. Movement in and out of the house over a week (time in house) and mosquito abundance were recorded on eight separate occasions in each household over twelve months. We identified the individuals bitten by 96 engorged mosquitoes over this period by amplifying specific human microsatellite markers in mosquito blood meals and human cheek swabs. Using a multinomial model assuming a saturating relationship (power), we found that, relative to other residents of a home, an individuals likelihood of being bitten in the home was directly proportional to time spent in their home and body surface area (p<0.05). A linear function fit the relationship equally well (ΔAIC<1). Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that larger people and those who spend more time at home are more likely to receive Ae. aegypti bites in their homes than other household residents. These findings are consistent with the idea that measurable characteristics of individuals can inform predictions of the extent to which different people will be bitten. This has implications for an improved understanding of heterogeneity in different peoples contributions to pathogen transmission, and enhanced interventions that include the people and places that contribute most to pathogen amplification and spread.