Henrik Blomgren

Getting back to scenario planning: Strategic action in the future of energy Europe

Scenario planning is a commonly used method in order to analyse complex aspects of the energy system. Historically it has been an important tool to prepare for long-term action. Today however, due to the deregulated market, it could be assumed that scenario analysis is abandoned. Maybe more (the only) attention is on short-term action. This paper presents a review over the time period of 1970 to 2010 on scenario-planning articles. The overall purpose is to evaluate how historical scenario studies stand in a situation of todays deregulated energy markets. Articles surveyed are published in well-respected and internationally well-spread peer-reviewed journals. Focus is put on 1, when, and by whom, articles have been published 2, for what reasons projects have been taken and with what method 3, what aspect that have been in focus. The articles are also analysed in terms of possible use in todays deregulated situation. Three conclusions are drawn. Firstly, the main use of scenario planning still tends to be a support to political processes. Secondly, three major issues and drivers for change dominate when different aspects of the energy system are analysed in scenario projects: climate change, security in terms of demand/supply and economic development. Thirdly, it is concluded that scenario planning still tend to be of value when analysing the future of the deregulated energy sector in Europe. However, in order to be fully utilized for the future scenario methodology must take into account that energy industry actors are not being controlled by politics as they where during the regulated period.

Why a few social networking sites succeed while many fail

The purpose of this research is to study why a few social networking sites (SNSs) succeed, while many others fail. Collecting data from 89 Facebook users reveals that electronic word of mouth (EWOM ...

The Strategic Agenda of Corporate Europe: Sustainability or Not?

Businesses are entering into a period of transformation, where winners and losers may be separated according to their ability to succeed in a carbon-constrained world. CEO’s vision is vital for accelerating the response to this transformation. We examined CEO letters in order to understand the strategic importance of this issue to CEOs.

Wheeling & dealing — Scenarios for understanding the European energy future

The deregulation of energy industries in combination with internationalization and a changing Europe requires strategic efforts to be undertaken in a different way than earlier. Policy activitites do not control this sector to the same extent as before - corporate strategies and activities have also become important to understand. During 2002 the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences engaged more than one hundred experts from industry, government and academia to analyze energy within the project “Energy Foresight - Sweden in Europe”. One part of the project, the structure foresight panel, sketched out four different scenarios that each describes a possible European setting for the energy industries - meaning: corporate action was in the center. In this article the aim is to evaluate the result from that scenario project in hindsight and to compare it with other similar scenario projects in this field.