Henry Lee

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.

Approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards

As a vector by which foreign species invade coastal and freshwater waterbodies, ballast water discharge from ships is recognized as a major environmental threat. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) drafted an international treaty establishing ballast water discharge standards based on the number of viable organisms per volume of ballast discharge for different organism size classes. Concerns that the IMO standards are not sufficiently protective have initiated several state and national efforts in the United States to develop more stringent standards. We evaluated seven approaches to establishing discharge standards for the > 50-microm size class: (1) expert opinion/management consensus, (2) zero detectable living organisms, (3) natural invasion rates, (4) reaction-diffusion models, (5) population viability analysis (PVA) models, (6) per capita invasion probabilities (PCIP), and (7) experimental studies. Because of the difficulty in synthesizing scientific knowledge in an unbiased and transparent fashion, we recommend the use of quantitative models instead of expert opinion. The actual organism concentration associated with a zero detectable organisms standard is defined by the statistical rigor of its monitoring program; thus it is not clear whether such a standard is as stringent as other standards. For several reasons, the natural invasion rate, reaction-diffusion, and experimental approaches are not considered suitable for generating discharge standards. PVA models can be used to predict the likelihood of establishment of introduced species but are limited by a lack of population vital rates for species characteristic of ballast water discharges. Until such rates become available, PVA models are better suited to evaluate relative efficiency of proposed standards rather than predicting probabilities of invasion. The PCIP approach, which is based on historical invasion rates at a regional scale, appears to circumvent many of the indicated problems, although it may underestimate invasions by asexual and parthenogenic species. Further research is needed to better define propagule dose-responses, densities at which Allee effects occur, approaches to predicting the likelihood of invasion from multi-species introductions, and generation of formal comparisons of approaches using standardized scenarios.

Geographic range and structure of cryptic genetic diversity among Pacific North American populations of the non-native amphipod Grandidierella japonica.

Reconstructing the invasion history of aquatic invasive species can enhance understanding of invasion risks by recognizing areas most susceptible to invasion and forecasting future spread based on past patterns of population expansion. Here we reconstruct the invasion history of the Japanese amphipod Grandidierella japonica Stephensen 1938 combining information from historical collection data with molecular genetic data to better understand post-invasion range expansion and anthropogenic connectivity across the Pacific coast of North America. Compilation of collection data from bays and estuaries of the Pacific North American coast show many new localities have been colonized in the last two decades, moving outward from harbors and bays with high commercial traffic into smaller coastal locations dominated by local recreational traffic. DNA barcode sequence data for G. japonica reveals two distinct clades: one found in San Francisco Bay and sites to the north, and one also found in San Francisco Bay and sites to the south. The two clades differ by an average 7.28xa0% genetic distance, large enough to consider these invasive amphipods two separate species. Both northern and southern clades exhibit low levels of genetic diversity, suggesting a single introduction event for each. The presence of cryptic diversity within this invasive amphipod highlights the need for more extensive study of the invasive and native populations of aquatic invasive invertebrates to address questions of taxonomy, diversity, and invasion history.

Ecoregional analysis of nearshore sea-surface temperature in the North Pacific.

The quantification and description of sea surface temperature (SST) is critically important because it can influence the distribution, migration, and invasion of marine species; furthermore, SSTs are expected to be affected by climate change. To better understand present temperature regimes, we assembled a 29-year nearshore time series of mean monthly SSTs along the North Pacific coastline using remotely-sensed satellite data collected with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument. We then used the dataset to describe nearshore (<20 km offshore) SST patterns of 16 North Pacific ecoregions delineated by the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW) hierarchical schema. Annual mean temperature varied from 3.8°C along the Kamchatka ecoregion to 24.8°C in the Cortezian ecoregion. There are smaller annual ranges and less variability in SST in the Northeast Pacific relative to the Northwest Pacific. Within the 16 ecoregions, 31–94% of the variance in SST is explained by the annual cycle, with the annual cycle explaining the least variation in the Northern California ecoregion and the most variation in the Yellow Sea ecoregion. Clustering on mean monthly SSTs of each ecoregion showed a clear break between the ecoregions within the Warm and Cold Temperate provinces of the MEOW schema, though several of the ecoregions contained within the provinces did not show a significant difference in mean seasonal temperature patterns. Comparison of these temperature patterns shared some similarities and differences with previous biogeographic classifications and the Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). Finally, we provide a web link to the processed data for use by other researchers.

Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10-100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of < 10 organisms with body size > 50 microm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.