Hiona Balfoussia

Financial conditions and economic activity: the potential impact of the targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)

Abstract This article explores the relationship between financial conditions and real economic activity in the euro area as a whole and for Greece in particular. We use a financial conditions index (see Angelopoulou et al. 2014) which is constructed using a wide range of prices, quantities, spreads and survey data in line with theory. We update the indices and use them within a VAR framework to estimate the potential impact of the targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) on aspects of economic activity. Our results suggest that financial conditions do have a significant effect on economic activity, and thus the TLTROs, to the extent that they are designed to improve financial conditions, will provide a boost to the real economy.

Firm investment and financial conditions in the euro area: evidence from firm-level data

ABSTRACT We explore whether the sensitivity of firm-level investment to cash flow, typically associated with an external financing premium, is time-varying and in particular whether it varies with overall financial conditions. We find that financial conditions have indeed played a significant role in corporate investment decisions over recent years, rendering financing constraints even more binding. This finding appears to be robust to a number of control variables and robustness tests. Moreover, the impact of credit conditions is not uniform across firms, but rather it varies depending on firm size and leverage, with constrained firms being substantially more likely to condition their investment decisions on overall credit conditions. Our results cast new light on the interplay between financial and real cycle downturns and underline the need for monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy to be countercyclical with respect to financial conditions.

Bank Transaction Taxes: International Evidence and Potential Implications for Greece

This chapter studies a particular case of financial transaction tax, namely, the bank transaction tax—that is, a tax imposed on any payment, withdrawal, or transfer made via the banking system. We review the relevant academic literature on countries which have employed the tax. Moreover, we use Greece as a case study of what the bank transaction tax would imply for a peripheral euro-area economy during the crisis, both in the context of a meta-analysis of existing literature as well as using a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a detailed financial sector and an appropriate shock. We conclude that, while the bank transaction tax has some advantages, its imposition also has a number of negative implications.