Hirokazu Tatano

Economic Loss Assessment due to Railroad and Highway Disruptions

Abstract This paper aims to present an illustrative case study on the economic impacts of transport infrastructure disruptions caused by the hypothetical Tokai-Tonankai earthquakes in Japan. We formulate a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model, which integrates a transportation model that can estimate two types of interregional flows of freight movement and passenger trips. The case study shows the impacts of transportation disruptions and the importance of network redundancy with transport-related economic losses corresponding to several scenarios from disasters and network levels of development.

Economic Impacts of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Tsunami

This paper provides an overview of economic impacts in the first year after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident—at an estimated ¥16.9 trillion (US

ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY LOSS RATE AFTER THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI IN 2011

211 billion) in direct damage, the costliest natural disaster on record. Documented costs to date include ¥2.9 trillion in insurance payouts and ¥17.7 trillion in response and recovery budgets by the national government that will be financed largely by tax increases and bonds. In the regions with physical damage, fisheries and agriculture, among other sectors, were very hard hit. The disaster also caused measurable economic impacts well beyond the damage regions, including losses in gross domestic product (GDP), in manufacturing from supply-chain disruptions, and in retail trade and tourism due to restrained consumption and radiation fears. Reduced capacity for generating electricity has led to substantial energy conservation nationwide. Results from applying a loss estimation model demonstrated good agreement with observed post-disaster economic activity.

Estimation of Lifeline Resilience Factors Based on Surveys of Japanese Industries

This research aims to investigate a method for estimating the production capacity loss rate (PCLR) of industrial sectors damaged by a disaster, such as an earthquake, tsunami, or nuclear radiation, particularly the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. PCLR is fundamental information required to gain an understanding of economic losses caused by a disaster. In particular, this paper proposes a method of PCLR estimation that considers the two main causes of capacity losses as observed from past earthquake disasters, namely damage to production facilities and disruption of lifeline systems. To achieve the quantitative estimation of PCLR, functional fragility curves considering the relationship between production capacity and earthquake ground motion and lifeline resilience factors for capturing the impact of lifeline disruptions have been adopted, while actual recovery curves are considered mainly for damaged facilities. Through the application of this method to the case study of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the PCLR in various industrial sectors is estimated; the estimated PCLR in the manufacturing sectors are then compared to the corresponding index of industrial production. The results demonstrate that the estimated values are close to the actual production indices in the overall manufacturing sector and many of the individual sectors.

Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit

This paper discusses the resilience factors of industrial sectors under lifeline (electricity, water, and gas) system disruptions. The resilience factor is one of the quantitative measurements of lifeline impacts, which focuses on the production output of some industrial sectors during lifeline disruptions. Recent studies have provided the detailed structure of business resilience that includes multiple resilience options, such as production rescheduling, inventories, and back-up generators. However, the impacts of these options on resilience factor are not thoroughly investigated due to the lack of data. In addition, resilience factor in previous study is assumed to be applied only to the single-lifeline disruption case, which is a limited case in large-scale disasters. In this study, the resilience factors for 27 industrial sectors are estimated based on the empirical surveys conducted in the Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures, Japan, focusing on more rigorous characteristics of resilience. One particular contribution of this paper is introducing the resilience factor that considers individual and compound effects of available resilience options along with multiple lifeline disruptions.

A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan

AbstractnThis paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.

Post-inspection payment plan for building inspection

This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.

A multi-regional general equilibrium analysis taking account of disaster risk

One of the most important roles of building inspectors is to certify the quality of buildings by detecting faults in design drawings and preventing the construction of poor-quality buildings that do not satisfy building codes and standards. Building clients cannot independently observe the earthquake resistance performance of buildings. It is crucial that building inspectors check the earthquake resistance performance with due vigilance. However, they are always faced with temptation to gain profits by carrying out negligent inspections because of the clients inability to observe the anti-seismic performance. This situation may cause moral hazard and adverse selection problems in seismic inspection markets. To overcome these problems, this paper proposes a post-inspection payment plan for building inspection in which inspectors are rewarded based on their inspection results. It is shown that the program can effectively help in achieving a trustworthy building inspection system in the society.

What constitutes successful participatory disaster risk management? Insights from post-earthquake reconstruction work in rural Gujarat, India

The paper aims at examining the long-term effects of anti-disaster mitigation of infrastructure upon the regional economy. A multi-regional general equilibrium model taking account of disaster risk is formulated to conduct the analysis. A natural disaster brings about catastrophic economic losses to the regional economy. In the short term, individuals and firms cannot change their location. But, in the long run, they can change their locations. Anti-disaster mitigation of infrastructure not only reduces damage caused by a disaster but also may attract more individuals and firms to relatively safer but still vulnerable areas. The paper also investigates the relationships between structure of cities, trade patterns and long-term effects of anti-disaster mitigation by the use of a multi-regional general equilibrium model.

Perceived ambiguity about earthquake and house destruction risks

Although for decades, public participation in disaster risk management has been strongly advocated for, in reality, it remains elusive. Planners and practitioners are still struggling to find ways to meaningfully involve the local community in disaster management programs; so far, apparently successful projects and initiatives have seldom been scaled up or replicated. The reason for this is that no comprehensive framework for participatory disaster risk management exists, and no systematic evaluation has been made to assess the necessary elements and appropriate paths for meaningful public participation in disaster management. This study attempts to examine the process and identify outcome-based factors that account for successful participatory disaster risk management. To accomplish this, we have evaluated reconstruction projects in earthquake-affected rural Gujarat, India, where the government envisioned a people-centric reconstruction project, but provided no public participation framework or guidelines. As a result, several reconstruction models pursuing different levels and types of public participation ultimately emerged. We selected three dominant reconstruction approaches and examined the extent to which various processes and outcome-based factors were successful in promoting ideal levels of public participation during these reconstruction projects. This study is considered an example of pioneering research in defining factors that account for successful participatory disaster risk management.