Norio Okada

Economic Loss Assessment due to Railroad and Highway Disruptions

Abstract This paper aims to present an illustrative case study on the economic impacts of transport infrastructure disruptions caused by the hypothetical Tokai-Tonankai earthquakes in Japan. We formulate a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model, which integrates a transportation model that can estimate two types of interregional flows of freight movement and passenger trips. The case study shows the impacts of transportation disruptions and the importance of network redundancy with transport-related economic losses corresponding to several scenarios from disasters and network levels of development.

Conflict management as a part of integrated disaster risk management -issues, socio-cultural contexts, and methodological leverages

This work deals with conflict management problems related to integrated disaster risk management (IDRM). We present a contingency conflict management model and discuss how an integrated methodological framework based on this model effectively analyze the process of a scoping mechanism in participatory conflict management. For this purpose an extended GMCR approach is developed and an example is presented for illustration. Issues, socio-cultural contexts and methodological issues are discussed for further research to be explored in future.

Utilization of the Yonmenkaigi System Method for community building of a disaster damaged village in Korea

The Yonmenkaigi System Method is utilized for developing a collaborative action plan for community recovery of a disaster damaged village. A case study was carried out in the Garisan-ri community, County of Inje, Province of Gangwon, Korea. The case study demonstrates how residents who experienced the flood disaster in 2006 in their local community can collaboratively create an action plan for their community recovery. The Yonmenkaigi System Method, originally developed in a local community in Japan, has the following main steps: defining the main theme based on SWOT analysis, working on a Yonmenkaigi chart, debating to improve the consistency and quality of collaborative activities, and presenting the group action plan.

Reflections on Implementation Science

Abstract This paper provides an original formulation of some of the key issues that we think are central to the effective implementation of integrated disaster risk management (IDRM). We tentatively call this focused effort “implementation science”. We define the term implementation science, in this context as a collective enterprise to develop a systematic body of knowledge (facts, empirical evidence, intuitions, insights, experience) on the causes and consequences of natural and human disasters, to analyse them systematically, and to successfully implement the resulting strategies in the prevention or mitigation of losses due to disasters. With this in view, we have identified and discussed in this paper some key elements of implementation science in the context of disaster management, both natural and man-made, based on a comprehensive review of important research and writing in the disaster management field.

Agent modeling for evacuation and amateur rescue under survivability-critical states in underground flooding

Vitae System based agent modeling has been proposed to simulate an evacuation and rescuing process under survivability-critical states. It has been shown that the Vitae System model can express individual abilities to keep ones own life under survivability-critical states as characterized by three functions: survivability, vitality, and conviviality. Given an underground inundation case as an illustration, three functions, survivability, vitality, and conviviality, have specifically been defined to operationalize the conceptual model of the Vitae System. Vitality function (an evacuees stamina to remain in a substitute shelter) is redefined based on physiological studies. Self-evacuation and amateur rescue have been simulated and analyzed. Countermeasures for worst-case scenarios in underground flooding have been suggested. They include setting up substitute shelters near stairs, changing the shelters style to support the agents vitality, and partially mounting the stairs.

Combined international and intergenerational disaster risk diversification: An innovative instrument for government intervention into the private disaster insurance program

Major catastrophic experiences since the 1990s and the rise in both frequency and severity of natural hazards have resulted in widespread concern about the financial management of disaster risk. Alternative risk transfer approaches have been designed to support the insurance industry in capping and insurability issues, among which capital markets as well as governments are expected to contribute. In this paper, the authors discuss the role of the government in supporting the market-based disaster risk financing approach. This is done using a one-good, two-country and two-period-overlapping-generation model. Agents living in the less developed and less damage resistant country can transfer their risk via the international private insurance market to the foreign agents. Disaster risk could also be diversified among generations through the intergenerational system operated by their government. The intergenerational framework uses the buffer stock strategy consisting of a disaster reserve and international loans. With the capital accumulated in the reserve, the government should intervene into the private international insurance market so that an optimum combination of the private and public sectors are reached. Numerical results show that through intervention Pareto improvement is achieved in terms of social welfare. Theoretically, the intervention could be conducted either in the form of public insurance or a government-sponsored private insurance program.

Nagara River Estuary Barrage Conflict

This case study is an application of IRGC’s risk governance framework to an actual water resources management problem which challenged the disaster risk governance system in Japan, the construction of the Nagara River Estuary Barrage. It represents an example of a problem in which decision-makers were faced with difficult tradeoffs between protection of public safety and important water resources on the one hand, and concerns about adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts of the barrage on the other. This problem also illustrates the evolving nature of conflicts over time, where the values that dominated the decisions in the early planning stages were not those that drove public opinion toward the end. The Nagara River Estuary Barrage was planned at the mouth of the Nagara River by the Ministry of Construction of the Japanese Government in order to develop water resources and mitigate flood disasters. The Nagara river runs through the Nagoya metropolitan region which is the third largest metropolitan area in population and a very important industrial area for Japanese economy, especially, automobile and machinery industries. However, local fishermen and eventually became opposed to the plan, and were joined in their opposition by an emerging new group of environmentalists. Crucial conflicts occurred among government officials, local people and societal groups holding diverse values. The conflicts have become compounded, evolved and lasted from 1968 to now, though some tentative resolution seems to have been reached. The chapter consists of three parts: the first part provides the reader with the history of this project and related conflicts; the second part is a retrospective analysis of the Nagara River Estuary Barrage conflict within the context of the IRGC risk governance framework; and the third provides our conclusions about the applicability and limitations of the framework and our recommendations for the future.

Game theoretic analysis of the process of player empowerment in resolving social conflict

The conventional game theory implicitly assumes players to be complete in terms of three capacities i.e., representability, knowledge, and executability. However in the real world, all the players are not always complete players. Depending on the extent to which these capacities are fulfilled by the players, we propose to systematically categorize the capacity status of a player, e.g., null player, intermediate player, and complete player in a game. This paper examines the transformation process of stakeholders to become empowered by other actors and grow as a complete player in a game. Thus we present a game theoretic approach to examine how players status affects the structure of the game and subsequently their strategic choices. A case in point is made by extending the Battle of Sexes game for simplified illustration, and a real-world Rajaji National Park social conflict in India is analyzed to illustrate the empowering process of players.

A multi-regional general equilibrium analysis taking account of disaster risk

The paper aims at examining the long-term effects of anti-disaster mitigation of infrastructure upon the regional economy. A multi-regional general equilibrium model taking account of disaster risk is formulated to conduct the analysis. A natural disaster brings about catastrophic economic losses to the regional economy. In the short term, individuals and firms cannot change their location. But, in the long run, they can change their locations. Anti-disaster mitigation of infrastructure not only reduces damage caused by a disaster but also may attract more individuals and firms to relatively safer but still vulnerable areas. The paper also investigates the relationships between structure of cities, trade patterns and long-term effects of anti-disaster mitigation by the use of a multi-regional general equilibrium model.

Analyzing urban rituals with reference to development of social capital for disaster resilience

Based on the field survey data of Kishiwada City, Osaka, Japan, this paper analyzes the potential role of social capital developed through ritual events in building a disaster resilient community. The preliminary findings show that the ritual events are contributing to the development of trust in the community at Kishiwada. Bonding social capital, bridging social capital and trust are found to enhance disaster awareness and self reliance. It is also found that ritual based organizations in Kishiwada are functioning as a social platform that regularly activates residents for collective actions in civic activities. Implications regarding the social utility of ritual based organizations in disasters are also discussed.