Holger Schlör

The history of sustainable development and the impact of the energy system

This paper describes the origin of the idea, term and concept of sustainable development. Driving forces were fundamental crises, which were essentially crises of the energy system: the idea originated during the crisis of the medieval agrarian solar system; the term emerged when the agrarian energy system could not satisfy the growing energy demand of the emerging industrial age at the end of the 18th century; the concept originated at the end of the 20th century, when the fossil fuel energy system came close to its ecological limits and society was in search of a concept reconciling ecological, economic and social goals for present and future generations. Currently, we are witnessing a slow transition to a new, probably a post-fossil energy system. Therefore, managing the present and future in a sustainable way is a task that will accompany humanity on its way into the future.

Lessons Learned from a Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment of Rare Earth Permanent Magnets

Summary In order to address methodological challenges during life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA), this article combines the results of a life cycle assessment (LCA), a life cycle costing, and a social LCA using the example of a complex product: a rare earth permanent magnet for use in wind turbines. The article presents different approaches for combining the results of separate assessments with its attendant methodological challenges. Different normalization, aggregation methods, and weighing factors are applied and their impacts on the results are compared. The underlying case study makes an evaluation of these different methodologies more concrete. Results show that the normalization method applied has a greater influence on the overall results than the aggregation method or weighting factors. Additionally, this study shows that indifference thresholds should be applied to avoid overestimation of small impacts. Indifference thresholds ensure that impact categories with nearly the same results for all analyzed options are treated as identical results. The study also indicates the importance of the question of how much compensation between impacts is desirable. Despite the impact of these factors, the chosen case study of an LCSA for permanent magnets with different supply routes for rare earths shows that the ranking of Chinese production is the most problematic irrespective of the approaches applied.

How sustainable is the German energy system? Introducing the Indicator for Sustainable Development (ISD) as a new measuring concept

For around 20 years, the sustainability concept and its implementation have been discussed by society at large (Kobiowu et al., 2005; Goldblatt, 2005; Marechal et al., 2005; Backstrand, 2006; Spangenberg, 2005) and, among others, by the green economics community (Lunn, 2006; Kennet and Heinemann, 2006b; Dobson and Bell, 2005a; Barry, 2005). Sustainability is regarded as a solution to societys present and future problems. Energy already plays an important role for sustainable development in the Brundtland Commissions report. We developed a new Indicator for Sustainable Development (ISD) in order to analyse the German energy system and a quantitative sustainable development pathway on the basis of scientific work by the German Federal Government. Our analysis shows that developments in the energy sector can be described with the help of measurable sustainability indicators and that the indicators identify the need for political action in the energy sector and thus provide a starting point for political measures.

ISD: A New Methodological Approach for Measuring the Sustainability of the German Energy System

The research community has developed three main concepts and indicator systems to measure sustainability: the capital concept, the ecological concept and the multidimensional concept. Whereas a lot of research has been dedicated to the pros and cons of the three/four-pillar sustainability concept, to the shaping of the pillars and their indicators, research on standardized methods to aggregate the indicators to one index is lacking. However, a useful model exists—the GDP—which summarizes the different economic activities of various social actors in one index. An overall sustainability index has the advantage that the sustainability of a system can be expressed in one index. This allows the sustainability status of a system to be better communicated both to the public and to politicians. Against this background, we developed the Index of Sustainable Development (ISD) to measure the sustainability of systems described by multidimensional sustainability concepts. We demonstrate that it is possible to aggregate sustainability indicators of the multidimensional sustainability concepts to one index. We have chosen exemplarily the German sustainability strategy and selected the energy indicators within it because of the importance of the energy sector and due to the good statistical database in this sector.

Managing the resilience space of the German energy system - A vector analysis

The UN Sustainable Development Goals formulated in 2016 confirmed the sustainability concept of the Earth Summit of 1992 and supported UNEPs green economy transition concept. The transformation of the energy system (Energiewende) is the keystone of Germanys sustainability strategy and of the German green economy concept. We use ten updated energy-related indicators of the German sustainability strategy to analyse the German energy system. The development of the sustainable indicators is examined in the monitoring process by a vector analysis performed in two-dimensional Euclidean space (Euclidean plane). The aim of the novel vector analysis is to measure the current status of the Energiewende in Germany and thereby provide decision makers with information about the strains for the specific remaining pathway of the single indicators and of the total system in order to meet the sustainability targets of the Energiewende. Within this vector model, three vectors (the normative sustainable development vector, the real development vector, and the green economy vector) define the resilience space of our analysis. The resilience space encloses a number of vectors representing different pathways with different technological and socio-economic strains to achieve a sustainable development of the green economy. In this space, the decision will be made as to whether the government measures will lead to a resilient energy system or whether a readjustment of indicator targets or political measures is necessary. The vector analysis enables us to analyse both the governments ambitiousness, which is expressed in the sustainability target for the indicators at the start of the sustainability strategy representing the starting preference order of the German government (SPO) and, secondly, the current preference order of German society in order to bridge the remaining distance to reach the specific sustainability goals of the strategy summarized in the current preference order (CPO).

Evaluation of Findings on Sustainability Strategies

The German national sustainability strategy and the federal spatial planning policy provide the basis for deriving a concept for sustainable development that corresponds to the object of study in the InfraDem project. Nine indicators of sustainability have been applied in the InfraDem project to evaluate the contribution made by demographic development to sustainable development. These indicators have been chosen according to the object of study. They are not applicable for the evaluation of overall sustainable development in Germany, Hamburg or Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. This type of evaluation requires additional indicators, referring to factors such as research and development, habitation and the preservation of nature, which are not considered in this study. In order to achieve sustainable development, further measures – substitution and technological progress – as well as a change in behavioural patterns are required (for example, in the case of carbon dioxide emissions). A theoretical concept for the definition of sustainable spatial development, stipulating appropriate indicators and related target values, is required.