Jürgen-Friedrich Hake

Carbon Capture, Storage and Use

Fossil-based energy conversion and energy-intensive industries are sources of a large part of global CO2 emissions. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are regarded as important technical options to reduce worldwide CO2 emissions. However, the discussion on the potential of CCS is highly controversial concerning four perspectives: technology development, economic competitiveness, environmental and safety impacts, and social acceptance. The following chapters focus on these aspects and analyze the potential and the possible role of CCS technologies. The study is based on methods of Integrated Technology Assessment. When regional considerations are important for evaluation, e.g. in case of social acceptance, the focus is on the German perspective.

A new Markov-chain-related statistical approach for modelling synthetic wind power time series

The integration of rising shares of volatile wind power in the generation mix is a major challenge for the future energy system. To address the uncertainties involved in wind power generation, models analysing and simulating the stochastic nature of this energy source are becoming increasingly important. One statistical approach that has been frequently used in the literature is the Markov chain approach. Recently, the method was identified as being of limited use for generating wind time series with time steps shorter than 15–40 min as it is not capable of reproducing the autocorrelation characteristics accurately. This paper presents a new Markov-chain-related statistical approach that is capable of solving this problem by introducing a variable second lag. Furthermore, additional features are presented that allow for the further adjustment of the generated synthetic time series. The influences of the model parameter settings are examined by meaningful parameter variations. The suitability of the approach is demonstrated by an application analysis with the example of the wind feed-in in Germany. It shows that—in contrast to conventional Markov chain approaches—the generated synthetic time series do not systematically underestimate the required storage capacity to balance wind power fluctuation.

ISD: A New Methodological Approach for Measuring the Sustainability of the German Energy System

The research community has developed three main concepts and indicator systems to measure sustainability: the capital concept, the ecological concept and the multidimensional concept. Whereas a lot of research has been dedicated to the pros and cons of the three/four-pillar sustainability concept, to the shaping of the pillars and their indicators, research on standardized methods to aggregate the indicators to one index is lacking. However, a useful model exists—the GDP—which summarizes the different economic activities of various social actors in one index. An overall sustainability index has the advantage that the sustainability of a system can be expressed in one index. This allows the sustainability status of a system to be better communicated both to the public and to politicians. Against this background, we developed the Index of Sustainable Development (ISD) to measure the sustainability of systems described by multidimensional sustainability concepts. We demonstrate that it is possible to aggregate sustainability indicators of the multidimensional sustainability concepts to one index. We have chosen exemplarily the German sustainability strategy and selected the energy indicators within it because of the importance of the energy sector and due to the good statistical database in this sector.

Managing the resilience space of the German energy system - A vector analysis

The UN Sustainable Development Goals formulated in 2016 confirmed the sustainability concept of the Earth Summit of 1992 and supported UNEPs green economy transition concept. The transformation of the energy system (Energiewende) is the keystone of Germanys sustainability strategy and of the German green economy concept. We use ten updated energy-related indicators of the German sustainability strategy to analyse the German energy system. The development of the sustainable indicators is examined in the monitoring process by a vector analysis performed in two-dimensional Euclidean space (Euclidean plane). The aim of the novel vector analysis is to measure the current status of the Energiewende in Germany and thereby provide decision makers with information about the strains for the specific remaining pathway of the single indicators and of the total system in order to meet the sustainability targets of the Energiewende. Within this vector model, three vectors (the normative sustainable development vector, the real development vector, and the green economy vector) define the resilience space of our analysis. The resilience space encloses a number of vectors representing different pathways with different technological and socio-economic strains to achieve a sustainable development of the green economy. In this space, the decision will be made as to whether the government measures will lead to a resilient energy system or whether a readjustment of indicator targets or political measures is necessary. The vector analysis enables us to analyse both the governments ambitiousness, which is expressed in the sustainability target for the indicators at the start of the sustainability strategy representing the starting preference order of the German government (SPO) and, secondly, the current preference order of German society in order to bridge the remaining distance to reach the specific sustainability goals of the strategy summarized in the current preference order (CPO).

CCS Policy in the EU: Will It Pay Off or Do We Have to Go Back to Square One?

The paper outlines the CCS policy in the EU and discusses its implementation. The European institutions established CCS as a key element in the package of policies aiming to realize climate change mitigation targets set by the EU. While the EU has developed a range of policies to support the development and deployment of CCS, their implementation in the member states faces obstacles. Some European countries question whether CCS should be deployed as a climate change mitigation option. For those member states which endorse CCS, the key difficulty that is yet to be overcome on the way to the commercial deployment is a development of the long-term incentives that would create a business case for CCS.

International Cooperation in Support of CCS

At the international level, there are a number of international organizations and political initiatives supporting the development and use of CCS. Their role and their main activities can be assigned to the major challenges associated with the development and use of CCS: (1) The cooperation to include CCS in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), (2) developing incentives for the demonstration of CCS, and (3) pooling and dissemination of knowledge from R&D activities. The international organizations and initiatives considered comprise e.g. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), G8, International Energy Agency (IEA), Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF), and the Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute (GCCSI).