Hugh Ward

Intergovernmental Organizations and the Kantian Peace: A Network Perspective

The authors use network analysis to argue that the main contribution of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) to international stability is not necessarily their direct and individual impact, because generally IGOs are institutionally weak. Rather, membership of IGOs creates network ties between states, allowing them, either individually or collectively, to intervene more effectively in latent conflicts. The IGO network also provides direct and indirect communication channels, where indirect links can act as partial substitutes for direct diplomatic ties. Empirically, the authors apply these ideas to the extensive network of international linkages created in the post—World War II period. They demonstrate that indirect links do indeed matter and that they substitute for more direct diplomatic ties. Furthermore, these effects are not limited to ties created by IGOs with specific security functions.

Government Popularity and the Falklands War: A Reassessment

Mrs Thatchers decisive and determined stand during the Falklands crisis in 1982 has been widely credited with restoring the electoral fortunes of the Conservative party in the run-up to the 1983 general election. This article argues that the Falklands war produced a boost to Conservative popularity of at most three percentage points for a period of only three months. Government popularity was already accelerating as a result of macroeconomic factors before the outbreak of the Falklands crisis, in particular ‘personal economic expectations’ proved to be of critical theoretical and empirical significance, and can be modelled satisfactorily on the basis purely of objective macroeconomic indices. Thus macroeconomic factors were at the root of the revival of Mrs Thatchers political fortunes, and most of the boost to government popularity which occurred in the spring of 1982 derived from intelligent (or cynical) macroeconomic management. The Falklands crisis merely coincided with a jump in government popularity which would have occurred anyway in the wake of Geoffrey Howes 1982 Budget.

Chickens, Whales, and Lumpy Goods: Alternative Models of Public-Goods Provision

The game-theoretic literature on the problem of the provision of public goods has concentrated almost exclusively on one model—the Prisoners Dilemma game. Several other simple games may be more applicable in certain situations. In particular, the game structure known as Chicken seems to provide a better description of an important sub-class of games where the good is lumpy rather than continuously divisible. Many environmental public goods belong to this category. A distinct paradox of public-goods provision occurs within games of Chicken.

The Electoral Impact of Press Coverage of the British Economy, 1979–87

There is a considerable amount of evidence to suggest that the political preferences of voters are influenced by the condition of the domestic economy. This article examines the proposition that, in Britain at least, the connections between macro-economic change and public perceptions of the government are mediated by the way in which the major national daily newspapers cover economic news. Using an aggregate data-analytic approach, it is shown that there is a moderate correlation between the economic coverage of most national dailies and the condition of the ‘real economy’ – though, unsurprisingly, some newspapers tend to be more accurate in their coverage than others. It is also shown that although press coverage of the economy fails to exert a direct effect on government popularity, it does exert an indirect effect through its impact on the overall level of personal financial optimism/pessimism.

Trade networks and the kantian peace

Classical-liberal arguments about the pacifying effects of international trade are revisited, and it is argued that they consistently refer to the ability of trade to provide ‘connections’ between people and to create a perceived ‘global community’. Dependency and openness are commonly used to test for any pacifying effects of trade in the current literature, but these measures fail to capture some of the classical liberals’ key insights. Several network measures are introduced in order to give natural expression to and to develop the classical-liberal view that trade linkages reduce interstate conflict. These measures applied to trade flows are incorporated in the Russett & Oneal triangulating-peace model. The main results are that trade networks are indeed pacifying in that both direct and indirect trade linkages matter, and as the global trade network has become more dense over time, the importance of indirect links by way of specific third countries has declined, and the general embeddedness of state dyads in the trade network has become more relevant. These findings suggest that the period since World War II has seen progressive realization of the classical-liberal ideal of a security community of trading states.

Liberal democracy and sustainability

Although theory strongly suggests that liberal democracies should perform better than autocracies on sustainability indicators, the empirical evidence is unclear. Using multivariate statistical techniques, political factors such as the stability of the system, public opinion, the nature of the party system and other institutional features such as presidentialism are considered. Liberal democracy is given qualified endorsement: it typically promotes weak sustainability, and stable core autocracies perform worse on strong sustainability measures than stable core democracies. Presidentialism generally is bad for sustainability. However, there is no compelling evidence that public opinion matters, even allowing for the intervening effects of the party system and institutional structure, which raises questions about the nature of the democratic process.

Domestic and International Influences on Green Taxation

Economists have made a strong case for the relative efficiency of market-based mechanisms for environmental regulation such as cap and trade and “green taxes,” yet the spread of these forms has been limited, and traditional “command and control” regulation still predominates. The authors explain geographical and temporal variation in green tax burdens by considering their domestic and international determinants, modeling international influences using spatial lags. Hypotheses are tested using panel data on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member states from 1995 to 2004. At the domestic level, the authors show that green tax burdens are influenced by the left–right and environmental positions of legislative medians and the power of the energy-producing sector, among other factors. The authors also show that ideas about policy diffuse through international networks generated by trade and environmental intergovernmental organizations, but they do not find compelling evidence for international tax competition.

Targeting Benefits for Electoral Gain: Constituency Marginality and the Distribution of Grants to English Local Authorities:

We model the spatial allocation of resources over constituencies as an optimization problem in which governing parties face uncertainty about voter preferences, but seek to increase their chances of getting re-elected. We show that a rational government should allocate extra resources to marginal constituencies and especially favour opposition-held marginals. We test this hypothesis on data about central government grants to larger English local authorities. We consider whether Conservative controlled and ‘flagship’ local authorities also benefit. Our empirical results suggest that the government allocated around £500 million more to local authorities containing marginal constituencies and around £155 million more to ‘flagship’ local authorities than they could have been expected to get on the criteria of social need and population.

Globalization, Party Positions, and the Median Voter

The authors argue that the effects of economic globalization on social democratic parties in Western Europe are conditional on the position of the median voter. If the median is far enough to the right, such parties will adopt business-friendly policies because they are required to win office. Only when the median is relatively far to the left will globalization constrain social democratic parties, forcing them to adopt policies further to the right in order to retain credibility. It is on this basis the authors argue that empirical studies are misspecified unless they include an interaction between measures of globalization and the position of the median. In addition to presenting formal theoretical arguments, the article reports empirical findings from fifteen countries in the period from 1973 to 2002 that support the conclusion that the effects of globalization are indeed contingent on the median. The authors find that the effects of globalization are significant for social democratic parties only in circumstances in which the median is relatively far to the left.

Game Theory and the Politics of Global Warming: the State of Play and Beyond

Global climate change is characterized as a collective-action game played by nations through time. The conditions under which conditional cooperation can occur are explored. The model clarifies the bargaining tactics used by nations in the negotiation of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the reasons why there may be collective action failure. The model also illuminates issues of regime design.