Humberto Francisco Silva Spolador

Supply and demand shocks and the growth of the Brazilian agriculture

In the last decades the Brazilian agriculture had a strong growth. Our hypothesis is that most of that growth may be attributed to two general factors, which may conveniently be related to two types of shocks acting upon agriculture: demand-related and technological supply-related shocks. Demand shocks are originated both from domestic economy but also from external markets. We use Blanchard & Quah (1989) type of methodology to test the relative importance of supply and demand shocks on Brazilian agricultural growth. Our results indicate that supply and demand shocks have permanent effects upon agricultural output and prices. We estimate that the agricultural output growth in Brazil is attributed in large proportion to yield increases. We argue that integration to international markets was essential to assure the profitability of continuous use of new technology that led to yield improvements. This is why exchange rate plays a key role in explaining the performance of the Brazilian agriculture. We anticipate that, if investments in science and technology are maintained and international integration expanded, Brazil will be able to substantially increase its supply of agricultural products both domestically and in foreign markets.

The Role of Agriculture on the Recent Brazilian Economic Growth: How Agriculture Competes for Resources

This paper investigates the contribution of the Brazilian agriculture to economic growth of the Brazilian economy. It draws upon the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data base, and other time series data to construct a multi-sector Ramsey model that shows the transition growth of the Brazilian agricultural sector and its effects on growth of the Brazilian economy, with particular emphasis given to the years 1994–2010.

The role of agriculture on the recent brazilian economic growth

This paper investigates the contribution of the Brazilian agriculture to economic growth of the Brazilian economy. It draws upon the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data base, and other time series data to construct a multi-sector Ramsey model that shows the transition growth of the Brazilian agricultural sector and its effects on growth of the Brazilian economy, with particular emphasis given to the years 1994–2010.

Produtividade Setorial e Mudança Estrutural no Brasil: Uma Análise Para o Período 1981 a 2013

Este artigo busca avaliar a evolucao da produtividade setorial e seu papel no processo de mudanca estrutural no Brasil, por meio da implementacao de um modelo dinâmico de equilibrio geral no periodo entre 1981 a 2013. O modelo calibrado para o caso brasileiro mostrou-se extremamente ajustado para captar a evolucao da participacao dos setores no emprego da economia agregada, e foi utilizado para simular um cenario alternativo em que a produtividade da agropecuaria teria o mesmo padrao de crescimento daquela observada para a economia brasileira. Os resultados sugerem que a produtividade da agropecuaria, a mais alta entre os tres setores analisados, foi relevante para a dinâmica da liberacao de trabalho para o setor de servicos, embora possa ter favorecido uma pequena diminuicao da participacao da industria no valor adicionado total.