Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi

Oferta de exportação de açúcar do Brasil

O objetivo deste trabalho e estimar uma funcao de oferta de exportacao brasileira de acucar utilizando a metodologia de Auto-Regressao Vetorial com identificacao pelo processo de Bernanke. Os dados utilizados sao do periodo de outubro de 1995 a dezembro de 2002. A equacao especificada para avaliar os impactos de variacoes nas condicionantes das exportacoes e fundamentada em um modelo teorico que tem como pressuposto que elas se constituem, em grande parte, no excedente do mercado interno. As propriedades de integracao e co-integracao das series utilizadas no modelo foram consideradas na analise. Os resultados mostram que o aumento do preco de exportacao e a desvalorizacao cambial causam significativo aumento das exportacoes brasileiras. Por outro lado, um aumento da renda interna e do preco domestico tem reflexos negativos sobre o quantum exportado. Os efeitos mais expressivos de uma mesma variacao percentual nas condicionantes das exportacoes sobre o quantum exportado de acucar, ocorrem no caso da variavel renda interna.

Impacts of the Recent Expansion of the Sugarcane Sector on Municipal per Capita Income in São Paulo State

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impacts of this expansion on the income of people in the state’s districts and towns. Beginning with a breakdown of the main determinants of per capita income, a spatial dynamic panel model is proposed. The proportion of adults in the municipal population, the labour force utilization rate, and the average labour income were used as control variables. Furthermore, to isolate the impacts of the expansion of the sugarcane sector on per capita gross domestic product (GDP), the share of farming in municipal areas, the share of agriculture within farming in general, the share of sugarcane farming within agriculture, and a dummy for districts and towns with an operational plant were included in the model. The series cover the 645 districts and towns of Sao Paulo State from 2000 to 2008. The results of the system generalized method of moments (system-GMM) showed a positive relationship of spatial and temporal dependence in the real per capita GDP. And the estimated direct and indirect effects indicate that the expansion of the sugarcane sector had a positive impact on per capita GDP, both in towns where the expansion took place and in their neighbouring towns.

Fatores de influência no preço do milho no Brasil

The objective of this paper is to understand the dynamics of the Brazilian corn market by investigating the main factors affecting volumes and prices. Unit roots tests were taken using the DF-GLS - Dickey Fuller Generalized Least Square methodology, and Johansens co-integration tests (1988). The estimated model for price adjustment was a Self-Regression Vector Error Correction Model – VEC, with identification by the Sims-Bernanke procedure. We conclude that there is a significant interaction between the corn and the soybean markets, which present a complementary relationship on the supply side and substitution relationship on the demand side. Additionally, we conclude that macroeconomic factors such as income and interest rates are important in determining corn prices for producers and on the wholesale market. It should be noted that external grain prices play a relatively important role in formation of domestic corn prices.

Determinantes do comércio Brasil-China de commodities e produtos industriais: uma aplicação VECM

The main objective of this work is to analyze the variables that determine the bilateral trade between Brazil and China, considering a classification proposed for the agricultural and mineral commodities and processed products. A vector-auto regression model with error correction (VECM) was adopted, through the Bernanke decomposition. The analysis period was from 1995 to 2008. The results indicate a high explanatory power of the income variable on the exports dynamics. In addition, the capacity utilization had consistent coefficients for all models estimated showing that this variable was able to capture correctly the effects of the domestic demand on exports.

Supply and demand shocks and the growth of the Brazilian agriculture

In the last decades the Brazilian agriculture had a strong growth. Our hypothesis is that most of that growth may be attributed to two general factors, which may conveniently be related to two types of shocks acting upon agriculture: demand-related and technological supply-related shocks. Demand shocks are originated both from domestic economy but also from external markets. We use Blanchard & Quah (1989) type of methodology to test the relative importance of supply and demand shocks on Brazilian agricultural growth. Our results indicate that supply and demand shocks have permanent effects upon agricultural output and prices. We estimate that the agricultural output growth in Brazil is attributed in large proportion to yield increases. We argue that integration to international markets was essential to assure the profitability of continuous use of new technology that led to yield improvements. This is why exchange rate plays a key role in explaining the performance of the Brazilian agriculture. We anticipate that, if investments in science and technology are maintained and international integration expanded, Brazil will be able to substantially increase its supply of agricultural products both domestically and in foreign markets.

Análise de evidências sobre a importância de barreiras técnicas à exportação de empresas brasileiras

This article presents results of a survey applied to Brazilian exporting firms to obtain primary data, which are subject to a statistical analysis about the relative importance attributed to technical barriers to trade. The methodological procedure used consisted in non parametric tests The firms that collaborated with the analysis indicated that technical barriers effects upon exports are relatively more important than tariff barriers, other non tariff barriers, taxes and international marketing costs. Factors such as price, external demand and transport costs seemed to be more important than technical requirements. Within the technical requirements, quality seemed to be what has most influence upon exports. In addition, different types of requirements present different impacts within the sectors evaluated.

Impactos socioeconômicos da expansão do setor sucroenergético no Estado de São Paulo, entre 2005 e 2009

O objetivo deste estudo e identificar os impactos socioeconomicos do crescimento do setor sucroenergetico no Estado de Sao Paulo. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados em painel abrangendo todos os municipios, entre os anos de 2005 a 2009, sendo o modelo ajustado com procedimentos alternativos dessa metodologia. Os citados impactos foram avaliados considerando os aspectos de emprego/renda, educacao e saude. Foram analisados tambem os impactos do crescimento do setor sucroenergetico sobre essas variaveis tomadas de forma agregada, para o indice consolidado de desenvolvimento. Os resultados do estudo permitem concluir que existe interacao positiva e significativa entre a expansao do setor sucroenergeticono Estado de Sao Paulo e o emprego/renda. Todavia, nao foram observadas evidencias acerca do efeito expressivo da expansao do setor sobre a educacao e a saude.

Produção e exportação de algodão: efeitos de choques de oferta e de demanda

This paper is intended to analyze the growth pattern of the Brazilian cotton production after 1960. During this period the cotton crop expanded to new regions based on a new production system. An economic model is developed to measure the contributions of supply and demand shocks to the growth in cotton production. Thirty percent of that growth was attributed to productivity gains and 15% is related to the evolution of prices. Twenty five percent of the exports growth is attributed to productivity as well. The results indicate that – once established an economic scenario – land area and production adjust to it according to an auto-regressive process over a decade or more.

Contratos de opção: análise do potencial de sustentação de preços para o mercado de arroz

An economic model was developed to analyze the put option contract role to stabilize prices in the paddy market. The possibility of using Federal Government Acquisitions (AGF) to complement the option instrument was considered. The role of the options was to reduce the risks of storing the product for later sale. The model is applied to analyze the option instrument implementation in the 2004/05 season. A two week demand for rice was estimated for the Brazilian market. The results show that the market prices go up when the government acts through the AGF. The options serve the purpose of making prices follow a compatible path. It was estimated that the probability for the option owners exercise their options is greater when the AGF are not used. One can conclude that these two tools (AGF and put options) can be used in a complementary way, with the AGF raising the market prices in the harvesting period, and the put option contracts making sure that the prices follow a competitive path and reduce the risks of future prices.

O excesso de confiança dos produtores de milho no Brasil e o uso de contratos futuros

O objetivo deste artigo foi identificar sinais de excesso de confianca nos precos entre produtores de milho do Sul e do Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Entre outubro e novembro de 2008, 90 produtores foram selecionados para responderem questoes relacionadas a seus conhecimentos do mercado futuro e a suas expectativas de precos. Uma grande parte dos entrevistados respondeu que nao negociava contratos futuros por nao possuir informacao suficiente para isso. Os resultados revelaram que os produtores foram descalibrados quando estimaram os precos esperados na forma direta e indireta. Alem disso, para a maior parte dos respondentes, a variância subjetiva obtida por meio dos questionarios foi estatisticamente inferior a variância do mercado. Isto mostra que os produtores possuem uma percepcao de risco inferior ao risco de mercado. Por fim, o artigo conclui que o efeito de excesso de confianca pode, parcialmente, explicar o baixo uso do mercado futuro de milho por parte dos produtores brasileiros, para garantir a protecao de preco do produto........This paper aimed to identify signs of overconfidence among corn producers in the Southern and Central-Western regions in Brazil. Between October and November 2008, 90 farmers were chosen to answer questions regarding their knowledge of futures markets and price expectations. Most part of agents surveyed answered that they do not trade futures contracts because they do not have enough information. Results showed that respondents were miscalibrated when estimating directly-stated and the indirectly-stated expected prices. In addition, for most respondents, subjective variance for corn proves to be significantly less than the market variance, implying that producers perceive a risk that is lower than that of the market. Finally, the paper concludes that the overconfidence effect can partially explain the low use of futures markets by Brazilian corn producers to hedge their production.