Huw Lloyd-Ellis

Twin Engines of Growth: Skills and Technology as Equal Partners in Balanced Growth

We develop an endogenous growth model in which skill acquisition by households and innovation by firms make distinct contributions to productivity growth. Nevertheless, the incentives faced by firms and households are inextricably linked because skills are required to implement new technologies. Skills and technologies are dynamic complements but, because their production complementarity is inherently bounded, they are “equal partners” in driving growth: neither can generate sustained growth alone. Our model has important implications for the effectiveness of alternative growth-promoting policies, for interpretating the empirical relationship between growth and schooling, and the relationship between growth and intergenerational wage dispersion.

Endogenous insecurity and economic development

Abstract We explore the implications of endogenous credit market imperfections for the endogenous relationship between investment insecurity and the process of economic development. In the initial stages of development, the fraction of agents engaged in nonproductive diversionary activities (e.g. rent-seeking) grows as the opportunities to gain from diversionary activities expand. In later stages, however, diversion falls as capital market imperfections are overcome and productive activities become more secure and more profitable. We detail the forces that determine whether the insecurity generated by an economys early development will choke off the growth process. We also compare the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies designed to prevent diversion.

Predicting the quantity of LDC debt rescheduling

In this paper we estimate a Type 2 Tobit model to explain both the timing and quantity of developing country debt rescheduling using an annual data set for 27 countries from 1977–1981 and six-monthly data for 59 countries from 1977–1985. We obtain a satisfactory model for both the timing and quantity of rescheduling which will be more useful for country risk analysis than models which predict the timing alone.

Using country balance sheet data to predict debt rescheduling

In this study we utilise data relating to the balance sheets of developing countries (e.g. short-term debt) in a logit model of debt rescheduling. We find that such variables are theoretically and empirically superior to those conventionally used (such as debt-export ratios). The study is based upon an annual sample of 27 countries for 1977–1981 and a six-monthly data set involving 59 countries from 1977–1985.

Fiscal shocks and fiscal risk management

We use the returns on a set of international financial securities to identify exogenous shocks to the Canadian federal surplus. We find that a large portion of the variation in the surplus can be replicated by a linear combination of these returns and that the rising debt observed in the 1980s and 1990s was a result of adverse exogenous shocks and a delayed response by the government to these shocks. We develop a formal framework to evaluate the potential gains from a fiscal risk management strategy, using these securities to hedge against exogenous shocks. We show that fiscal risk management can generate significant welfare gains by enhancing the sustainability of fiscal policy and thereby lowering average tax rates.

Co-movement, Capital and Contracts: 'Normal' Cycles Through Creative Destruction

We develop a unified theory of endogenous business cycles in which expansions are neoclassical growth periods driven by productivity improvements and capital accumulation, while downturns are the result of Keynesian contractions in aggregate demand below potential output. Recessions allow skilled labor to be reallocated to growth promoting activities which fuel subsequent expansions. However, rigidities in production and contractual limitations, inherent to the process of creative destruction, leave capital severely underutilized. A key feature of our equilibrium is the endogenous emergence of long term supply contracts between capitalist owners and producers.

Has Canadian House Price Growth been Excessive

The dramatic rise in the ratio of Canadas average house price to average rent has led to speculation that there is a bubble in the Canadian housing market. Others have argued, however, that the currently high level of house prices may be rationalized by the low cost of financing, given the decline in interest rates over the last two decades. In this article, we assess these arguments through the lens of a simple asset pricing model applied to city-level data. We quantify the extent to which excess growth in Canadian house prices depends on the nature of the current regime governing real interest rates, expections of rent growth in different cities and variations in property taxes.

Implementation cycles, growth and the labor market

Abstract We develop a theory of growth and cycles that endogenously relates job flows, worker flows and wages over the cycle to the processes of restructuring, innovation and implementation that drive long-run growth. Expansions are the result of clustered implementation of new ideas and recessions are the negative consequence of the restructuring that anticipates them. Due to incentive problems, production workers are employed via relational contracts and experience involuntary unemployment. Separation rates and firm turnover are counter-cyclical, but labor productivity growth and hiring rates are procyclical. Our framework also highlights the counter-cyclical forces on wages due to restructuring, and illustrates the relationship between the cyclicality of wages and long-run productivity growth.