Hyeyeong Choe

Meta‐corridor solutions for climate‐vulnerable plant species groups in South Korea

Summary 1.Vulnerability assessments can provide useful information for the establishment of climate change adaptation strategies. We performed spatial vulnerability assessments for multiple plant species that incorporate potential range shifts to areas of future suitable climate. We conducted the assessments at a national level for plant species organized into vulnerable species groups. We then identified a climate meta-corridor for each vulnerable group that could potentially be a pathway for multiple species. 2.We estimated climate suitability for 2297 South Korean terrestrial plant species under current climate conditions and climate projections for 2050 using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) multiresponse species distribution model. We classified the plants into five groups based on their current spatial distribution patterns: centrally located species, wide-range species, coastal mountain species, montane species, and lowland species. Three vulnerability assessment components — exposure, spatial disruption, and dispersal pressure — were used to calculate the spatial vulnerability of each species. Vulnerability values were averaged by group. We identified climate meta-corridors that would link current suitable areas to future climatically suitable areas, and tested the corridors for multi-species accessibility. 3.The vulnerability assessment indicates that coastal mountain, montane, and lowland species groups, comprising 37% of all modelled species, are the most vulnerable to climate change. The climate meta-corridor for each group overlaps at least some portion of 83% or more of its species’ current modelled ranges. The current and future climate-suitable areas for the lowland species group have very little spatial overlap, suggesting a high priority should be placed on the corridor identified for these species. We found that the destinations of the climate corridors converge, raising questions about large numbers of species moving to limited areas, and that transboundary corridor modelling is needed on the Korean Peninsula. 4.Policy Implications. Each of the three meta-corridors has unique policy implications: assisted migration for the highest elevation species for the montane; significant conservation and restoration work for the lowland; and perhaps no direct intervention but monitoring to evaluate effectiveness of the relatively intact habitats of the coastal mountain meta-corridor. Overall, implementation policies for climate connectivity will be context-dependent, requiring different approaches dependent on local and regional conditions and the species targeted. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Mapping National Plant Biodiversity Patterns in South Korea with the MARS Species Distribution Model

Accurate information on the distribution of existing species is crucial to assess regional biodiversity. However, data inventories are insufficient in many areas. We examine the ability of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) multi-response species distribution model to overcome species’ data limitations and portray plant species distribution patterns for 199 South Korean plant species. The study models species with two or more observations, examines their contribution to national patterns of species richness, provides a sensitivity analysis of different range threshold cutoff approaches for modeling species’ ranges, and presents considerations for species modeling at fine spatial resolution. We ran MARS models for each species and tested four threshold methods to transform occurrence probabilities into presence or absence range maps. Modeled occurrence probabilities were extracted at each species’ presence points, and the mean, median, and one standard deviation (SD) calculated to define data-driven thresholds. A maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity threshold was also calculated, and the range maps from the four cutoffs were tested using independent plant survey data. The single SD values were the best threshold tested for minimizing omission errors and limiting species ranges to areas where the associated occurrence data were correctly classed. Eight individual species range maps for rare plant species were identified that are potentially affected by resampling predictor variables to fine spatial scales. We portray spatial patterns of high species richness by assessing the combined range maps from three classes of species: all species, endangered and endemic species, and range-size rarity of all species, which could be used in conservation planning for South Korea. The MARS model is promising for addressing the common problem of few species occurrence records. However, projected species ranges are highly dependent on the threshold and scale criteria, which should be assessed on a per-project basis.

Assessing shortfalls and complementary conservation areas for national plant biodiversity in South Korea

Protected areas (PAs) are often considered the most important biodiversity conservation areas in national plans, but PAs often do not represent national-scale biodiversity. We evaluate the current conservation status of plant biodiversity within current existing PAs, and identify potential additional PAs for South Korea. We modeled species ranges for 2,297 plant species using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and compared the level of mean range representation in South Korea’s existing PAs, which comprise 5.7% of the country’s mainland area, with an equal-area alternative PA strategy selected with the reserve algorithm Marxan. We also used Marxan to model two additional conservation scenarios that add lands to approach the Aichi Biodiversity Target objectives (17% of the country). Existing PAs in South Korea contain an average of 6.3% of each plant species’ range, compared to 5.9% in the modeled equal-area alternative. However, existing PAs primarily represent a high percentage of the ranges for high-elevation and small range size species. The additional PAs scenario that adds lands to the existing PAs covers 14,587.55 km2, and would improve overall plant range representation to a mean of 16.8% of every species’ range. The other additional PAs scenario, which selects new PAs from all lands and covers 13,197.35 km2, would improve overall plant range representation to a mean of 13.5%. Even though the additional PAs that includes existing PAs represents higher percentages of species’ ranges, it is missing many biodiversity hotspots in non-mountainous areas and the additional PAs without locking in the existing PAs represent almost all species’ ranges evenly, including low-elevation ones with larger ranges. Some priority conservation areas we identified are expansions of, or near, existing PAs, especially in northeastern and southern South Korea. However, lowland coastal areas and areas surrounding the capital city, Seoul, are also critical for biodiversity conservation in South Korea.