Robert J. Hijmans

Aligning Conservation Priorities Across Taxa in Madagascar with High-Resolution Planning Tools

Globally, priority areas for biodiversity are relatively well known, yet few detailed plans exist to direct conservation action within them, despite urgent need. Madagascar, like other globally recognized biodiversity hot spots, has complex spatial patterns of endemism that differ among taxonomic groups, creating challenges for the selection of within-country priorities. We show, in an analysis of wide taxonomic and geographic breadth and high spatial resolution, that multitaxonomic rather than single-taxon approaches are critical for identifying areas likely to promote the persistence of most species. Our conservation prioritization, facilitated by newly available techniques, identifies optimal expansion sites for the Madagascar governments current goal of tripling the land area under protection. Our findings further suggest that high-resolution multitaxonomic approaches to prioritization may be necessary to ensure protection for biodiversity in other global hot spots.

Climate change, wine, and conservation

Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

The point-radius method for georeferencing locality descriptions and calculating associated uncertainty

Natural history museums store millions of specimens of geological, biological, and cultural entities. Data related to these objects are in increasing demand for investigations of biodiversity and its relationship to the environment and anthropogenic disturbance. A major barrier to the use of these data in GIS is that collecting localities have typically been recorded as textual descriptions, without geographic coordinates. We describe a method for georeferencing locality descriptions that accounts for the idiosyncrasies, sources of uncertainty, and practical maintenance requirements encountered when working with natural history collections. Each locality is described as a circle, with a point to mark the position most closely described by the locality description, and a radius to describe the maximum distance from that point within which the locality is expected to occur. The calculation of the radius takes into account aspects of the precision and specificity of the locality description, as well as the map scale, datum, precision and accuracy of the sources used to determine coordinates. This method minimizes the subjectivity involved in the georeferencing process. The resulting georeferences are consistent, reproducible, and allow for the use of uncertainty in analyses that use these data.

Phylogeographic lineages and species comparisons in conservation analyses: a case study of california herpetofauna.

Many phylogeographic studies have revealed strongly diverged lineages within species that are masked by a lack of congruent morphological differentiation. To assess the extent to which the genetic component of diversity affects conservation assessments, we compared spatial patterns of endemism and conservation value for 22 species of Californian amphibians and reptiles with the 75 phylogeographic lineages that they contain. We used bioclimatic distribution modeling with environmental layers to generate 5‐km spatial‐resolution maps of predicted distribution for each species and lineage. We found concentrations of lineage breaks across the Central Valley, San Francisco Bay, the Sierra Nevada, and the Tehachapi and Trinity ranges. Subdivision of the ranges of species into phylogeographic units revealed novel areas of endemism. Several areas of very high conservation value for lineages were not evident in the species‐level analysis. These observations illustrate the importance of considering multiple levels of biodiversity in conservation assessments.

Climate Change Adaptation for Conservation in Madagascar

Madagascars imperilled biota are now experiencing the effects of a new threat—climate change ([Raxworthy et al . 2008][1]). With more than 90% endemism among plants, mammals, reptiles and amphibians, the stakes are high. The pristine landscapes that allowed this exceptional biodiversity to

The contribution of rice agriculture and livestock pastoralism to prehistoric methane levels An archaeological assessment

We review the origins and dispersal of rice in Asia based on a data base of 443 archaeobotanical reports. Evidence is considered in terms of quality, and especially whether there are data indicating the mode of cultivation, in flooded (‘paddy’ or ‘wet’) or non-flooded (‘dry’) fields. At present it appears that early rice cultivation in the Yangtze region and southern China was based on wet, paddy-field systems from early on, before 4000 bc, whereas early rice in northern India and Thailand was predominantly dry rice at 2000 bc, with a transition to flooded rice documented for India at c. 1000 bc. On the basis of these data we have developed a GIS spatial model of the spread of rice and the growth of land area under paddy rice. This is then compared with a review of the spread of ungulate livestock (cattle, water buffalo, sheep, goat) throughout the Old World. After the initial dispersal through Europe and around the Mediterranean (7000–4000 bc), the major period of livestock expansion is after 3000 bc, into the Sub-Saharan savannas, through monsoonal India and into central China. Further expansion, to southern Africa and Southeast Asia dates mostly after 1000 bc. Based on these two data sets we provide a quantitative model of the land area under irrigated rice, and its likely methane output, through the mid to late Holocene, for comparison to a more preliminary estimate of the expansion of methane-producing livestock. Both data sets are congruent with an anthropogenic source of later Holocene methane after 3000 bc, although it may be that increase in methane input from livestock was most significant in the 3000–1000 bc period, whereas rice paddies become an increasingly significant source especially after 2000 bc.

Multiple lines of evidence for the origin of domesticated chili pepper, Capsicum annuum, in Mexico.

Significance The novelty of the information of this manuscript resides in the addition of species distribution modeling and paleobiolinguistics data, combined with genetic and existing archaeobotanical data, to trace back the geographic origin of a crop, namely domesticated pepper, Capsicum annuum. Furthermore, the utilization of a geographic framework of reference for the four types of data has allowed us to combine these independent data types into a single hypothesis about the origin of this crop. Our results suggest that food crops in Mexico had a multiregional origin with chili pepper originating in central-east Mexico, maize in the Balsas River Basin and common bean in the Lerma–Santiago River Basin, resembling similar finds for the Fertile Crescent and China. The study of crop origins has traditionally involved identifying geographic areas of high morphological diversity, sampling populations of wild progenitor species, and the archaeological retrieval of macroremains. Recent investigations have added identification of plant microremains (phytoliths, pollen, and starch grains), biochemical and molecular genetic approaches, and dating through 14C accelerator mass spectrometry. We investigate the origin of domesticated chili pepper, Capsicum annuum, by combining two approaches, species distribution modeling and paleobiolinguistics, with microsatellite genetic data and archaeobotanical data. The combination of these four lines of evidence yields consensus models indicating that domestication of C. annuum could have occurred in one or both of two areas of Mexico: northeastern Mexico and central-east Mexico. Genetic evidence shows more support for the more northern location, but jointly all four lines of evidence support central-east Mexico, where preceramic macroremains of chili pepper have been recovered in the Valley of Tehuacán. Located just to the east of this valley is the center of phylogenetic diversity of Proto-Otomanguean, a language spoken in mid-Holocene times and the oldest protolanguage for which a word for chili pepper reconstructs based on historical linguistics. For many crops, especially those that do not have a strong archaeobotanical record or phylogeographic pattern, it is difficult to precisely identify the time and place of their origin. Our results for chili pepper show that expressing all data in similar distance terms allows for combining contrasting lines of evidence and locating the region(s) where cultivation and domestication of a crop began.

A geospatial modelling approach integrating archaeobotany and genetics to trace the origin and dispersal of domesticated plants.

Background The study of the prehistoric origins and dispersal routes of domesticated plants is often based on the analysis of either archaeobotanical or genetic data. As more data become available, spatially explicit models of crop dispersal can be used to combine different types of evidence. Methodology/Principal Findings We present a model in which a crop disperses through a landscape that is represented by a conductance matrix. From this matrix, we derive least-cost distances from the geographical origin of the crop and use these to predict the age of archaeological crop remains and the heterozygosity of crop populations. We use measures of the overlap and divergence of dispersal trajectories to predict genetic similarity between crop populations. The conductance matrix is constructed from environmental variables using a number of parameters. Model parameters are determined with multiple-criteria optimization, simultaneously fitting the archaeobotanical and genetic data. The consilience reached by the model is the extent to which it converges around solutions optimal for both archaeobotanical and genetic data. We apply the modelling approach to the dispersal of maize in the Americas. Conclusions/Significance The approach makes possible the integrative inference of crop dispersal processes, while controlling model complexity and computational requirements.

Historical distribution of Sundaland’s Dipterocarp rainforests at Quaternary glacial maxima

Significance The effect of glacial cycles on Southeast Asian (SEA) rainforest during the Quaternary is unresolved. Some historical evidence suggests rainforests were confined to small refugia during glacial maxima, but dynamic vegetation models suggest evergreen rainforests were widespread. Because Dipterocarpaceae dominate current SEA rainforests, their distributions closely reflect general rainforest extent. Here, we use an extensive georeferenced database of collection records for 317 Dipterocarpaceae species to model their climatic niches, based on current climatic conditions. These distribution models were then hindcast onto historical climatic conditions of the last glacial maximum. The results indicate that central Sundaland, exposed because of lower sea levels at glacial maxima, harbored suitable environmental conditions for Dipterocarpaceae and was probably covered by rainforest. The extent of Dipterocarp rainforests on the emergent Sundaland landmass in Southeast Asia during Quaternary glaciations remains a key question. A better understanding of the biogeographic history of Sundaland could help explain current patterns of biodiversity and support the development of effective forest conservation strategies. Dipterocarpaceae trees dominate the rainforests of Sundaland, and their distributions serve as a proxy for rainforest extent. We used species distribution models (SDMs) of 317 Dipterocarp species to estimate the geographic extent of appropriate climatic conditions for rainforest on Sundaland at the last glacial maximum (LGM). The SDMs suggest that the climate of central Sundaland at the LGM was suitable to sustain Dipterocarp rainforest, and that the presence of a previously suggested transequatorial savannah corridor at that time is unlikely. Our findings are supported by palynologic evidence, dynamic vegetation models, extant mammal and termite communities, vascular plant fatty acid stable isotopic compositions, and stable carbon isotopic compositions of cave guano profiles. Although Dipterocarp species richness was generally lower at the LGM, areas of high species richness were mostly found off the current islands and on the emergent Sunda Shelf, indicating substantial species migration and mixing during the transitions between the Quaternary glacial maxima and warm periods such as the present.

Is the Climate Right for Pleistocene Rewilding? Using Species Distribution Models to Extrapolate Climatic Suitability for Mammals across Continents

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial “Pleistocene rewilding” proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion) was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of organisms in response to climate change.