I. Janssens

Runoff and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: 1958-2003

Meteorological models were used to retrieve annual accumulation, runoff, and surface mass balance on a 5 km A� 5 km grid for the Greenland ice sheet for 1958-2003. We present the first such history that provides insight into seasonal and interannual variability, which should prove useful for those studying the ice sheet. Derived runoff was validated by means of a control model run and independent in situ data. Modeled accumulation has already been validated using shallow ice core data. Surface mass balance (SMB) responds rapidly on a yearly basis to changing meteorological (surface air temperature and precipitation) forcing. There are distinct signals in runoff and SMB following three major volcanic eruptions. Runoff losses from the ice sheet were 264 (±26) km3 yr-1 in 1961-1990 and 372 (±37) km3 yr-1 in 1998-2003. Significantly rising runoff since the 1990s has been partly offset by increased precipitation. Our best estimate of overall mass balance declined from 22 (±51) km 3 yr-1 in 1961-1990 to - 36 (±59) km3 yr-1 in 1998-2003, which is not statistically significant. Additional dynamical factors that cause an acceleration of ice flow near the margins, and possible enhanced iceberg calving, may have led to a more negative mass balance in the past few years than suggested here. The implication is a significant and accelerating recent contribution from the ice sheet to global sea level rise, with 0.15 mm yr-1 from declining SMB alone over the last 6 years. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Modeling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia

A three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a dynamic ice sheet component has been used to investigate the long-term evolution of the Greenland ice sheet and its effects on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to a range of stabilized anthropogenic forcings. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet volume should experience a significant decrease in the future. For a radiative forcing exceeding 7.5 W m(-2), the modeled ice sheet melts away within 3000 years. A number of feedbacks operate during this deglaciation, implying a strong nonlinear relationship between the radiative forcing and the melting rate. Only in the most extreme scenarios considered, the freshwater flux from Greenland into the surrounding oceans ( of ca. 0.1 Sv during a few centuries) induces a noticeable weakening of the AMOC in the model.

The treatment of meltwater retention in mass-balance parameterizations of the Greenland ice sheet

Abstract Retention of meltwater runoff by percolation and/or refreezing in the snowpack cannot be neglected when studying the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In this paper, we make a detailed comparison of several treatments proposed in the literature to account for this process in large-scale mass-balance parameterizations. The melt on the Greenland ice sheet is calculated with a revised degree-day model using updated datasets of surface elevation and precipitation rate on a 5 km grid. Crucial model parameters are recalibrated by comparing mass-balance characteristics with available observations on a regional basis. We discuss the role of meltwater retention in the light of the overall mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and its sensitivity to climatic change, and display patterns of effective-retention fractions for the various methods. As a main conclusion it appears that overall results are quite similar for the various models, but that meltwater retention has a large spatial variation not described by the simple treatments. Using the most comprehensive retention model, the sensitivity of the runoff is found to be +0.35 mm ˚C–1 of sea-level change per year. We also present a new map of the different zones (facies) that characterize the accumulation area of the Greenland ice sheet, which is useful for interpreting field data and calibrating satellite observations.

Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century

[1] Two simulations of the 21st century climate have been carried out using, on the one hand, a coarse resolution climate general circulation model and, on the other hand, the same model coupled to a comprehensive model of the Greenland ice sheet. Both simulations display a gradual global warming up to 2080. In the experiment that includes an interactive ice sheet component, a strong and abrupt weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation occurs at the end of the 21st century. This feature is triggered by an enhanced freshwater input arising mainly from a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. As a consequence of the circulation decline, a marked cooling takes place over eastern Greenland and the northern North Atlantic. This result underlines the potential role of the Greenland ice sheet in the evolution of climate over the 21st century.

Surface mass-balance changes of the Greenland ice sheet since 1866

Abstract Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet over the past decade has caused the impression that the ice sheet has been behaving anomalously to the warming of the 1990s. We have reconstructed the recent (1866–2005) surface mass-balance (SMB) history of the Greenland ice sheet on a 5 × 5 km grid using a runoff-retention model based on the positive degree-day method. The model is forced with new datasets of temperature and precipitation patterns dating back to 1866.We use an innovative method to account for the influence of year-on-year surface elevation changes on SMB estimates and have found this effect to be minor. All SMB estimates are made relative to the 1961–90 average SMB and we compare annual SMB estimates from the period 1995–2005 to a similar period in the past (1923–33) where SMB was comparable, and conclude that the present-day changes are not exceptional within the last 140 years. Peripheral thinning has dominated the SMB response during the past decade, as in 1923–33, but we also show that thinning was not restricted to the margins during this earlier period.

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate changes in the 21st century by interactive coupling of an AOGCM with a thermomechanical ice-sheet model

Abstract We present results from a greenhouse warming experiment obtained from an atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice general circulation model that is interactively coupled with a three-dimensional model of the Greenland ice sheet. the experiment covers the period 1970–2099 and is driven by the mid-range Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRESB2 scenario. the Greenland model is a thermomechanical high-resolution (20 km) model coupled with a viscoelastic bedrock model. the melt-and-runoff model is based on the positive degree-day method and includes meltwater retention in the snowpack and the formation of superimposed ice. the atmospheric–oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM) is a coarse-resolution model without flux correction based on the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (Paris) LMD 5.3 atmospheric model coupled with a primitive-equation, free-surface oceanic component incorporating sea ice (coupled large-scale ice–ocean (CLIO)). By 2100, average Greenland annual temperature is found to rise by about 4.5˚C and mean precipitation by about 35%. the total fresh-water flux approximately doubles over this period due to increased runoff from the ice sheet and the ice-free land, but the calving rate is found to decrease by 25%. the ice sheet shrinks equivalent to 4 cm of sea-level rise. the contribution from the background evolution is not more than 5% of the total predicted sea-level rise. We did not find significant changes in the patterns of climate change over the North Atlantic region compared with a climate-change run without Greenland fresh-water feedback.