I. Sandberg

Cross calibration of NOAA GOES solar proton detectors using corrected NASA IMP‐8/GME data

Solar proton flux measurements onboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) are of great importance as they cover several solar cycles, increasingly contributing to the development of long-term solar proton models and to operational purposes such as now-casting and forecasting of space weather. A novel approach for the cross calibration of GOES solar proton detectors is developed using as reference energetic solar proton flux measurements of NASA IMP-8 Goddard Medium Energy Experiment (GME). The spurious behavior in a part of IMP-8/GME measurements is reduced through the derivation of a nonlinear intercalibration function. The effective energy values of GOES solar proton detectors lead to a significant reduction of the uncertainties in spectra and may be used to refine existing scientific results, available models, and data products based on measurements over the last three decades. The methods presented herein are generic and may be used for calibration processes of other data sets as well.

SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a serious radiation hazard for spacecraft as well as a severe health risk to humans traveling in space. Indeed, accurate modeling of the SEP environment constitutes a priority requirement for astrophysics and solar system missions and for human exploration in space. The European Space Agencys Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server is a World Wide Web interface to a complete set of cross-calibrated data ranging from 1973 to 2013 as well as new SEP engineering models and tools. Both statistical and physical modeling techniques have been included, in order to cover the environment not only at 1 AU but also in the inner heliosphere ranging from 0.2 AU to 1.6 AU using a newly developed physics-based shock-and-particle model to simulate particle flux profiles of gradual SEP events. With SEPEM, SEP peak flux and integrated fluence statistics can be studied, as well as durations of high SEP flux periods. Furthermore, effects tools are also included to allow calculation of single event upset rate and radiation doses for a variety of engineering scenarios.

THE MAJOR GEOEFFECTIVE SOLAR ERUPTIONS OF 2012 MARCH 7: COMPREHENSIVE SUN-TO-EARTH ANALYSIS

During the interval 2012 March 7–11 the geospace experienced a barrage of intense space weather phenomena including the second largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 24 so far. Significant ultra-low-frequency wave enhancements and relativistic-electron dropouts in the radiation belts, as well as strong energetic-electron injection events in the magnetosphere were observed. These phenomena were ultimately associated with two ultra-fast (>2000 km s) coronal mass ejections (CMEs), linked to two X-class flares launched on early 2012 March 7. Given that both powerful events originated from solar active region NOAA 11429 and their onsets were separated by less than an hour, the analysis of the two events and the determination of solar causes and geospace effects are rather challenging. Using satellite data from a flotilla of solar, heliospheric and magnetospheric missions a synergistic Sun-to-Earth study of diverse observational solar, interplanetary and magnetospheric data sets was performed. It was found that only the second CME was Earth-directed. Using a novel method, we estimated its near-Sun magnetic field at 13 Re to be in the range [0.01, 0.16] G. Steep radial fall-offs of the near-Sun CME magnetic field are required to match the magnetic fields of the corresponding interplanetary CME (ICME) at 1 AU. Perturbed upstream solar-wind conditions, as resulting from the shock associated with the Earth-directed CME, offer a decent description of its kinematics. The magnetospheric compression caused by the arrival at 1 AU of the shock associated with the ICME was a key factor for radiation-belt dynamics.

Validation of the effect of cross-calibrated GOES solar proton effective energies on derived integral fluxes by comparison with STEREO observations

The derivation of integral fluxes from instrument coincidence rates requires accurate knowledge of their effective energies. Recent cross calibrations of GOES with the high-energy-resolution Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 Goddard Medium Energy Experiment (GME) (Sandberg et al., Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, 4435, 2014a) gave significantly lower effective energies than those currently used by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center to calculate solar proton integral fluxes from GOES rates. This implies systematically lower integral fluxes than currently produced. This paper quantifies the differences between the current and the cross-calibrated GOES integral fluxes and validates the latter. Care is taken to rule out the spectral resolution of the measurements or different integration algorithms as major contributors to differences in the magnitudes of the derived integral fluxes. The lower effective energies are validated by comparison with the independent, high-resolution observations by the STEREO Low-Energy Telescope (LET) and High-Energy Telescope (HET) during the December 2006 solar proton events. The current GOES product is similar to the >10 MeV integral fluxes recalculated by using the Sandberg et al. [2014a] effective energies but is substantially greater at higher energies. (The median ratios of the current to the recalculated fluxes are 1.1 at >10 MeV, 1.7 at >30 MeV, 2.1 at >60 MeV, and 2.9 at >100 MeV.) By virtue of this validation, the cross-calibrated GOES integral fluxes should be considered more accurate than the current NOAA product. The results of this study also demonstrate good consistency between the two long-term IMP 8 GME and STEREO LET and HET solar proton data sets.

Quantifying Dynamical Complexity of Magnetic Storms and Solar Flares via Nonextensive Tsallis Entropy

Over the last couple of decades nonextensive Tsallis entropy has shown remarkable applicability to describe nonequilibrium physical systems with large variability and multifractal structure. Herein, we review recent results from the application of Tsallis statistical mechanics to the detection of dynamical changes related with the occurrence of magnetic storms. We extend our review to describe attempts to approach the dynamics of magnetic storms and solar flares by means of universality through Tsallis statistics. We also include a discussion of possible implications on space weather forecasting efforts arising from the verification of Tsallis entropy in the complex system of the magnetosphere.

A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF)

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) result from intense solar eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and pose a significant threat for both personnel and infrastructure in space conditions. In this work, we present FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares), a novel dual system, designed to perform forecasting of SEPs based on forecasting of solar flares, as well as independent SEP nowcasting. An overview of flare and SEP forecasting methods of choice is presented. Concerning SEP events, we make use for the first time of the newly re-calibrated GOES proton data within the energy range 6.0-243 MeV and we build our statistics on an extensive time interval that includes roughly 3 solar cycles (1984-2013). A new comprehensive catalogue of SEP events based on these data has been compiled including solar associations in terms of flare (magnitude, location) and CME (width, velocity) characteristics.

MULTI-VIEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS OF A WIDELY DISTRIBUTED SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT: THE ROLE OF EUV WAVES AND WHITE-LIGHT SHOCK SIGNATURES

On 2012 March 7, two large eruptive events occurred in the same active region within 1 hr from each other. Each consisted of an X-class flare, a coronal mass ejection (CME), an extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wave, and a shock wave. The eruptions gave rise to a major solar energetic particle (SEP) event observed at widely separated (∼120°) points in the heliosphere. From multi-viewpoint energetic proton recordings we determine the proton release times at STEREO B and A (STB, STA) and the first Lagrange point (L1) of the Sun–Earth system. Using EUV and whitelight data, we determine the evolution of the EUV waves in the low corona and reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of the first CME’s shock, respectively. We compare the energetic proton release time at each spacecraft with the EUV waves’ arrival times at the magnetically connected regions and the timing and location of the CME shock. We find that the first flare/CME is responsible for the SEP event at all three locations. The proton release at STB is consistent with arrival of the EUV wave and CME shock at the STB footpoint. The proton release time at L1 was significantly delayed compared to STB. Three-dimensionalmodeling of the CME shock shows that the particle release at L1 is consistent with the timing and location of the shock’s western flank. This indicates that at L1 the proton release did not occur in low corona but farther away from the Sun. However, the extent of the CME shock fails to explain the SEP event observed at STA. A transport process or a significantly distorted interplanetary magnetic field may be responsible.

Nonstorm loss of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt

We report observations of electron Phase Space Density (PSD) dropout and evidence that supports the loss mechanism of magnetopause shadowing and outward radial diffusion during a nonstorm period characterized by persistently positive values of the SYM-H index. On 14 April 2013 an electron PSD dropout of 2 orders of magnitude was observed at the nightside magnetosphere by the Van Allen Probes. The magnetopause shadowing was associated with a strong pulse attributed to the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection. It is shown, for the first time in detail, that significant losses to the magnetosheath may occur even in the absence of significant reconnection and magnetic storm activity. Signatures of substorm injections that penetrate the outer belt and enhance the low-energy electrons were also observed right after the interplanetary pressure pulse. Moreover, particle measurements from THEMIS constellation also show a PSD depletion in the dayside magnetosphere.

Unfolding and validation of SREM fluxes

The Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) belongs to a second generation of instruments in a program established by the European Research and Technology Centre of the European Space Agency (ESA) to provide minimum intrusive particle radiation detectors on ESA spacecraft for space weather applications, which are also suitable for scientific investigations.

Using a new set of space-borne particle monitors to investigate solar-terrestrial relations

Context. We investigated the solar origin of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) which occurred during four time periods of the 23rd solar cycle with intense solar activity and were detected by the Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) onboard the INTEGRAL satellite. SREM is a second generation ESA particle radiation monitor, already flying onboard seven spacecraft. Aims. The present study attempts to establish the association of recorded SPEs by INTEGRAL/SREM with their solar sources and hence evaluate the potential of SREM units as an alarm system for hazardous SPEs. Methods. X-ray, optical and radio data of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were observed by several space-based instruments during the aforementioned solar cycle were reduced and thoroughly analyzed to establish the corresponding solar origin of the selected SPEs. Results. The analysis produced clear associations with X-class solar flares and respective CMEs for the events of the October-November 2003, January 2005 and December 2006 periods, while for the events that occurred during September 2005, associations with X-class flares are possible but not straightforward due to the complexity of the registered solar particle fluxes. Conclusions. SREM proves to be a new valuable asset for a comprehensive study of SPEs and a useful alert instrument for explosive geoeffective solar events.