Iain McNicoll

Simulating the structure of a regional economy

This paper assesses the feasibility of constructing a regional input/output table where only national input/output tables and limited regional data exist. A number of alternative simulation models are developed and applied to the UK table to obtain estimated Scottish tables. These simulated tables are then compared with the actual Scottish table by a variety of methods. The results of the present study are compared with those of previous works in this field. Finally, the effects of introducing more survey-based information into the simulation methods are analysed.

The regional economic impact of overseas students in the UK : a case study of three Scottish universities∗

LOVE J. H. and MCNICOLL I. H. (1988) The regional economic impact of overseas students in the UK: a case study of three Scottish universities, Reg. Studies 22, 11–18. Overseas students form an important and growing proportion of the total student population in UK higher education. This paper is not concerned with the educational arguments for or against the attraction of overseas students, but rather argues that each such student represents an injection of new income into the host regional economy with consequent implications for local activity. Using a multiplier model, the regional economic impact of overseas students in each of three Scottish universities is quantified. Brief comparisons are made with other studies. The paper concludes that overseas students do have a significant impact on the local economy, which is realized to a large extent outside the host university itself. LOVE J. H. and MCNICOLL I. H. (1988) Die regionalwirtschaftliche Auswirkung auslandischer Studenten im Vereinigten Konigreich...

The Economic Impact of University Funding Cuts.

Although much has been written about the impact of funding cuts on UK universities, very little work has been carried out to estimate the effects of these cuts on the local economies in which the universities are located. This paper seeks to identify changes in the funding of three Scottish universities which can be traced directly to central government, and to quantify the wider economic effects of these changes. Significant effects are estimated, which form the unintended consequences of government policy on higher education.

Measuring the Effects of Changing Structure on Employment Generation Potential

This article describes a method for examining components of structural change in an open economy. A distinguishing characteristic of the method is that changes in external trade behavior are explicitly recognized as a separate component of structural change. The method is utilized to examine the effects of structural change on employment-generating potential in Scotland between 1973 and 1979. Overall, employment generation potential (employment multipliers per unit final demand) fell over the six-year period. Changes in import propensities and employment/output coefficients both led to reductions, but the negative contributions of these components were partially offset by increased use of intermediate inputs. For a number of industries, the changes in employment generation potential and the contributions of the individual components differed substantially from the Scottish average.

Data Use and the Simulation of Regional Input-Output Matrices

There is a growing body of evidence which suggests that, used in conjunction with a suitable estimation method, the incorporation of good quality exogenous data can enhance the accuracy of simulated or updated regional input—output matrices. However, there has been little attempt to measure explicitly the accuracy of simulation results in relation to the data used in their estimation. Within the context of programming estimation procedure, comparable measures of the ‘quantity’ of exogenous data and the accuracy of simulation are developed in this paper. Subsequently, this framework is demonstrated using Scottish and Washington input—output tables.