Frank Harrigan

Amos - a macro-micro model of Scotland

Abstract The paper gives a detailed description of AMOS, a macro-micro simulation framework parameterized on Scottish data. From a macroeconomic modelling perspective, AMOS has two relatively novel features: the supply side is specified in terms of the microeconomic behaviour of ‘representative transactors’ and there is a wide choice over the precise form of supply-side behaviour. An outline of model software, a full model listing and illustrative simulations are also provided.

Simulating the structure of a regional economy

This paper assesses the feasibility of constructing a regional input/output table where only national input/output tables and limited regional data exist. A number of alternative simulation models are developed and applied to the UK table to obtain estimated Scottish tables. These simulated tables are then compared with the actual Scottish table by a variety of methods. The results of the present study are compared with those of previous works in this field. Finally, the effects of introducing more survey-based information into the simulation methods are analysed.

The Reconciliation of Inconsistent Economic Data: the Information Gain

This paper demonstrates that the posterior estimates given by two common formulations of ‘data reconciliation’ problems result in better quality data. ‘Better quality data’ is interpreted in terms of the closeness of the posterior estimates to the true but unknown values. It is also shown that more or improved information further improves the quality of the posterior estimates. These results provide a deterministic rationale for the reconciliation of inconsistent economic data.

Swedish-finnish return migration, extent, timing, and information flows

This paper performs two tasks. It first describes the return migration behavior of Finnish immigrants to Sweden over the period 1968–1976 as revealed by the Swedish population register. The volume of return migration is considerable but varies by age and sex. Second, we examine the sensitivity of return migration to economic conditions at both destination and origin. The model proposed allows the relative weights attached to information on the two locations to vary as the interval of absence lengthens. Econometric evidence indicates that conditions at the original location appear to exert increasing influence on the decision to return the longer the interval of absence.

Data Use and the Simulation of Regional Input-Output Matrices

There is a growing body of evidence which suggests that, used in conjunction with a suitable estimation method, the incorporation of good quality exogenous data can enhance the accuracy of simulated or updated regional input—output matrices. However, there has been little attempt to measure explicitly the accuracy of simulation results in relation to the data used in their estimation. Within the context of programming estimation procedure, comparable measures of the ‘quantity’ of exogenous data and the accuracy of simulation are developed in this paper. Subsequently, this framework is demonstrated using Scottish and Washington input—output tables.

Openness, Imperfect Competition and the NAIRU

Considers the treatment of openness and imperfect competition in the influential analysis of Layard, Nickell and Jackmans (LNJs) Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. Clarifies and completes LNJs treatment of openness through the provision of explicit analytical solutions to their model under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. Also provides a (largely informal) analysis of the sensitivity of the LNJ models results to the particular forms of imperfect competition assumed. It is argued that openness is crucial to the models properties, whereas imperfect competition is not. However, imperfect competitive behaviour may, more generally, have a major impact if it is not confined to the “well-behaved form” allowed by LNJ.