Ian D. McAvinchey

Elasticity estimates from a dynamic model of interrelated demands for private and public acute health care

This paper investigates the private/public mix in acute health care provision in the UK. It uses an interrelated shares model derived from a translog function combined with dynamic adjustment. Using prices for public care constructed from NHS waiting lists, the insurance cost of private care and the retain price index, impact, intermediate and long run elasticities of demand for private and public care are obtained. The role of hospital consultants and of an aging population are also considered.

Stationarity, structural change and specification in a demand system: the case of energy

The impact of structural change, stationarity of the data and economic theory on energy modelling and forecasting, is investigated for Germany and the UK, using two three-equation models which allow for the long- and short-run behaviour of the constituent variables. The models are specified, restricted and estimated to comply with the above conditions and they are then used to generate one step ahead and dynamic forecasts from each of the two models; one with structural change, and the other without. These forecasts and other aspects of the models are then used to choose the specification. In general structural change, stationarity of the data and economic theory are shown to have important implications for model specification and forecasting.

A Regional Comparison of House Price Inflation Rates in Britain, 1967-76

The paper presents by using regionally disaggregated data for the British Economic Planning Regions some questions on the usefulness of current macro-oriented approaches to the modelling of house price inflation. The paper indicates that such models should be restricted in their use to national levels. It argues that a more disaggregated approach to the analysis of house price changes would not only be locally useful but would take account of housing research on the micro level.

Modelling and forecasting in an energy demand system with high and low frequency information

Abstract Time series data of different frequencies and different time spans are often available to economists when estimating an econometric model. This paper is concerned with combining information from two data sets in one model, where one data set is annual for 35 years and the other is quarterly for 17 years, with the annual time span including the quarterly span. The information from the two data sets is combined within a demand system in two different ways which are then compared with a system estimated from quarterly data alone. An overall assessment is given based on the diagnostic statistics and forecasts generated by the models which suggests that the data of both frequencies can have an instructive and a positive effect, especially on forecasts.

The efficiency of the forward exchange market: Some evidence for the pound sterling-US dollar exchange rate using residuals from the LUS class

In this note we test the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange for the UK pound-US dollar exchange rate, using residuals from the LUS class. We show that previous rejections of efficiency in the forward market have not been due to the use of residuals from the OLS class.

European monetary union and the outsiders

This article looks at the impact on a small outside country if a larger, outsider country were to join a nearby monetary union, exemplified by the likely effects on Norway of the UK deciding to join the Euro. We construct a theoretical model to capture such effects, which focuses on the effect of union on Norway as the small outside state. We then estimate the model using data from the period 1980–1999 (the period covering the existence of the ECU and the Euro), and find that there would be substantial implications for the management of the Norwegian economy in response to asymmetric shocks and EU fiscal and monetary policy. 1 This article forms part of research on the regional implications of EMU on UK and Norway, organised within Europa-programmets ‘Storbritannia-prosjekt’ on ‘Britain, Scandinavia and the EMU’.

Some specification tests of uncovered interest parity

Exchange rate theory has recently been concerned with versions of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition, as an alternative to purchasing power parity. The UIP condition is examined, for the U.S. Dollar, the Deutschemark, the Yen, and the Swiss Franc all against the Pound Sterling, using dynamic specification tests based on residual from the LUS and OLS classes, and selected error orthogonality tests. Market errors for one currency may have an information role for other currencies, this also is tested. It is suggested that spot rates are determined by the same underlying process which requires a considerable amount of past information on market errors for efficient spot rate determination. A role for time varying risk premia is suggested.

Some aspects of decision making in the UK manufacturing sector

Abstract The links between price, output, labour services, inventories, backlog and expected values of input prices and income are considered in an adjustment framework. A five equation model is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares and a Two Step approximation to Generalized Least Squares using data from the U.K. manufacturing sector with expected values assumed to be generated by ARIMA processes. Simulation is used to discuss the model, and estimation method, while the stability of the links between the variables is considered.