W. David McCausland

Some are Punished and Some are Rewarded: A Study of the Impact of Performance Pay on Job Satisfaction

Using an econometric procedure that corrects for both self-selection of individuals into their preferred compensation scheme and wage endogeneity, this study investigates whether significant differences exist in the job satisfaction of individuals receiving performance-related pay (PRP) compared to those on alternative compensation plans. Using data from four waves of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), it is found that PRP exerts a positive effect on the mean job satisfaction of (very) high-paid workers only. A potential explanation for this pattern could be that for lower-paid employees PRP is perceived to be controlling, whereas higher-paid workers derive a utility benefit from what they regard as supportive reward schemes. Using PRP as an incentive device in the UK could therefore be counterproductive in the long run for certain low-paid occupations.

Multiple international debt equilibria and irreversibility

Abstract A non-linear model is presented to give a global analysis of international debt and trade. It offers an alternative to the sunk–cost explanation of hysteresis, structural breaks and irreversibility. In particular, we show that a natural resource discovery, which turns out to be temporary ex post, may cause a long-term deterioration in the trade balance.

Is manufacturing still the engine of growth

This paper focuses on an interesting and controversial debate on the factors underlying economic growth. Kaldors belief that increasing returns to manufacturing production are the driver of growth is confronted with data from 11 representative countries spanning nearly two decades. Various alternative and complementary specifications are investigated using a panel estimation methodology. The results show that growth in manufacturing output is an important determinant of both productivity growth and gross domestic product growth, and that, despite its increasing size, the service sector does not appear to play a similar role.

Exchange Rate Hysteresis from Trade Account Interaction

An explicitly specified macro model of exchange rate determination is integrated with a model of trade account hysteresis. In this macro model, flow imbalances in the trade account must be matched by equilibrating stocks of imperfectly substitutable assets, generating a stock-flow consistent determination of the exchange rate. In this paper, changes in the real exchange rate induce firms to enter particular markets for internationally traded goods, which in turn affects the trade balance. When there are sunk costs associated with this entry, returning the real exchange rate to its initial state may not induce those firms to exit the markets that they have entered. This causes trade account hysteresis. Since the real exchange rate is in part determined by the trade balance, trade account hysteresis feeds through to give exchange rate hysteresis. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

The Costs of Inward Direct Foreign Investment to Developing Countries

In this paper we develop a two country general equilibrium extension of the Stockman (1980)-Lucas (1982) equilibrium exchange rate model. This optimising framework gives us the opportunity to analyse the effect of foreign direct investment on trade and welfare of both the investor and the recipient countries. We show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, it is likely that the recipient country will suffer a welfare loss, even though it may improve its trade balance, and despite it having a comparative advantage in production in the sector in which direct foreign investment takes place. Traditional analysts have tended to focus somewhat disproportionately on the effects of foreign direct investment on the trade balance, assuming that an improvement in the trade balance inevitably implied an improvement in welfare. The use of a properly micro-founded two-country model allows us to challenge this orthodoxy.

Training and hysteresis effects on the wage inflation-unemployment relationship

This paper develops a model that shows how training costs incurred by firms alters the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. During an upswing, firms will take on and train new workers. These workers are, however, not shed during a following downswing. This is due to the lump sum training cost forcing a wedge between the level of demand that triggers a firm to begin training new workers and that triggers them to shed trained workers. This has important policy implications as it gives a renewed role to demand-side policy in enhancing labor market flexibility, while reinforcing the value of supply-side incentives to train and educate workers.

The macroeconomics of the social chapter: minimum wages, human capital and labour productivity

This paper integrates trade and macro theory to provide a two-country, multi-product framework, including debt servicing and profit repatriation in the current account, and foreign money, financial assets and shares in the capital account. We investigate the effects of minimum wage legislation on the domestic tradeables and inward foreign investment sectors. Our findings show that there are asymmetrical effects on international debt and competitiveness. Thus policy makers must have a more detailed knowledge of the sectoral structure of the country they are concerned with in order to make informed decisions as to the merits of minimum wage legislation.

The dynamics of bond versus treasury bill deficit financing

Many governments have a long-run target of lowering budget deficits in the future through current deficit spending, relying on economic growth to deliver their policy objective. This paper shows that this is unattainable under bond finance, since there exists no stable equilibrium. However, it is shown that a sustainable growth equilibrium is possible, but only if the deficit is treasury bill financed.

Monetary Policy: The Implications of Capacity Constraints and J-Curve Effects

We present a stylized model to analyse the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on international debt and competitiveness. The features of this non-linear model include both currency and asset substitution in a two-country framework, paying special attention to the dynamics of international debt. We find, in contrast to conventional wisdom, that, in addition to raising competitiveness and reducing debt, a monetary contraction can generate inflation in the presence of capacity constraints. Furthermore, if the inflation effect is sufficiently strong, there may be adverse short-run responses. The policy analysis explicitly considers the short-run dynamics of competitiveness, debt, prices and trade. We find there is a second J-curve effect which only occurs when the standard J-curve effect is present together with capacity constraints. The existence of cyclical short-run behaviour presents a warning to policy-makers when assessing the progress towards target equilibrium to bear in mind that adverse short-run movements may be consistent with the long-run desired aim (i.e. there may be initial movements in the “wrong” direction which are consistent with the “expected” long-run outcome).

Employment Hysteresis in an Overlapping-Generations Insider-Outsider Model

This paper shows, within an overlapping generations insider-outsider model, that, in the presence of training costs, there may be multiple employment equilibria. Adverse technology shocks may shift the system from ‘high’ to ‘low’ employment steady states. Restoration of the initial technological state does not always lead to the ‘high’ employment equilibrium being returned - the system may get ‘stuck’ in a ‘low’ employment state.