Ignacio A. Mundo

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Austrocedrus chilensis growth decline in relation to drought events in northern Patagonia, Argentina

The significant mortality of the Austrocedrus chilensis (D. Don) Pic. Serm. et Bizarri forests, locally known as “Mal del Ciprés”, has been reported since 1945 for most sites across its distribution in Argentina. However, the cause of this decline is still a topic of discussion. In this study, radial growth patterns from symptomatic and asymptomatic A. chilensis trees were analyzed to determine the influence of drought events on tree growth. Fifty pairs of symptomatic and asymptomatic trees with similar DBH, competition, and microsite conditions were cored at five pure A. chilensis stands near El Bolsón, Río Negro, Argentina. A reference chronology from nonaffected trees was used to cross-date all cores and to determine the relationship between A. chilensis radial growth and climate. The growth of A. chilensis is favored by above average precipitation in late spring–early summer (November and December). A strong relationship was also observed between radial growth patterns and the Palmer drought severity index, a measure of the regional water deficit. Significant differences in growth patterns were recorded between symptomatic and asymptomatic trees. Following extreme drought events, the growth of symptomatic trees is consistently lower than in asymptomatic trees. Based on the larger number of droughts recorded during the past decades and on future climatic predictions suggesting increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of drought events in northern Patagonia, a gradual increase in the number of trees affected by “Mal del Ciprés” along the twenty-first century is likely expected.

Continental-Scale Temperature Variability during the Past Two Millennia: Supplementary Information

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.

Fire history in the Araucaria araucana forests of Argentina: human and climate influences

Little is known about drivers and trends of historic fire regimes in the Araucaria araucana forests of south-western Argentina. Fire history in these forests was reconstructed by the analysis of 246 fire-scarred partial cross-sections from this fire-resistant tree collected at 10 sites in Neuquen, northern Patagonia. Fire chronologies showed an increase in fire occurrence during the nineteenth century and a sharp decrease since the early twentieth century. The creation of Lanin National Park in 1937, the change in human activities, and the active suppression of wildfires led to a significant increase in mean fire intervals since 1930. In addition to these multidecadal to centennial scale drives of fire frequency, interannual variability in wildfire activity was associated with El Nino–Southern Oscillation. Years of widespread fire are related to negative departures of both Nino 3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indexes (i.e. La Nina conditions), as well as coincident phases of positive Southern Annular Mode and La Nina events. Temporal variations in the Araucaria fire history in Argentina clearly show the combined effect of human and climate influences on fire regimes. A comparison with previous fire history studies in the Araucaria forests of Chile reveals substantial differences related to differences in human activities on both sides of the Andes and the earlier implementation of protected areas in Argentina.

Streamflow variability in the Chilean Temperate-Mediterranean climate transition (35°S–42°S) during the last 400 years inferred from tree-ring records

Abstract As rainfall in South-Central Chile has decreased in recent decades, local communities and industries have developed an understandable concern about their threatened water supply. Reconstructing streamflows from tree-ring data has been recognized as a useful paleoclimatic tool in providing long-term perspectives on the temporal characteristics of hydroclimate systems. Multi-century long streamflow reconstructions can be compared to relatively short instrumental observations in order to analyze the frequency of low and high water availability through time. In this work, we have developed a Biobío River streamflow reconstruction to explore the long-term hydroclimate variability at the confluence of the Mediterranean-subtropical and the Temperate-humid climate zones, two regions represented by previous reconstructions of the Maule and Puelo Rivers, respectively. In a suite of analyses, the Biobío River reconstruction proves to be more similar to the Puelo River than the Maule River, despite its closer geographic proximity to the latter. This finding corroborates other studies with instrumental data that identify 37.5°S as a latitudinal confluence of two climate zones. The analyzed rivers are affected by climate forcings on interannual and interdecadal time-scales, Tropical (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and Antarctic (Southern Annular Mode; SAM). Longer cycles found, around 80-years, are well correlated only with SAM variation, which explains most of the variance in the Biobío and Puelo rivers. This cycle also has been attributed to orbital forcing by other authors. All three rivers showed an increase in the frequency of extreme high and low flow events in the twentieth century. The most extreme dry and wet years in the instrumental record (1943–2000) were not the most extreme of the past 400-years reconstructed for the three rivers (1600–2000), yet both instrumental record years did rank in the five most extreme of the streamflow reconstructions as a whole. These findings suggest a high level of natural variability in the hydro-climatic conditions of the region, where extremes characterized the twentieth century. This information is particularly useful when evaluating and improving a wide variety of water management models that apply to water resources that are sensitive to agricultural and hydropower industries.

Southern Annular Mode drives multicentury wildfire activity in southern South America

Significance Fire is a key ecological process affecting ecosystem dynamics and services, driven primarily by variations in fuel amount and condition, ignition patterns, and climate. In the Southern Hemisphere, current warming conditions are linked to the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) due to ozone depletion. Here we use tree ring fire scar data obtained from diverse biomes ranging from subtropical dry woodlands to sub-Antarctic rainforests to assess the effect of the SAM on regional fire activity over the past several centuries. Our findings reveal a tight coupling between fire activity and the SAM at all temporal scales and in all biomes, with increased wildfire synchrony and activity during the 20th century compared with previous centuries. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the main driver of climate variability at mid to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, affecting wildfire activity, which in turn pollutes the air and contributes to human health problems and mortality, and potentially provides strong feedback to the climate system through emissions and land cover changes. Here we report the largest Southern Hemisphere network of annually resolved tree ring fire histories, consisting of 1,767 fire-scarred trees from 97 sites (from 22 °S to 54 °S) in southern South America (SAS), to quantify the coupling of SAM and regional wildfire variability using recently created multicentury proxy indices of SAM for the years 1531–2010 AD. We show that at interannual time scales, as well as at multidecadal time scales across 37–54 °S, latitudinal gradient elevated wildfire activity is synchronous with positive phases of the SAM over the years 1665–1995. Positive phases of the SAM are associated primarily with warm conditions in these biomass-rich forests, in which widespread fire activity depends on fuel desiccation. Climate modeling studies indicate that greenhouse gases will force SAM into its positive phase even if stratospheric ozone returns to normal levels, so that climate conditions conducive to widespread fire activity in SAS will continue throughout the 21st century.

Sensitivity of Nothofagus dombeyi tree growth to climate changes along a precipitation gradient in northern Patagonia, Argentina

Key messageRecent variations in climate appear to induce similarities in the responses ofN. dombeyigrowth along its entire distribution, supporting global convergence in tree growth responses to climate changes.AbstractUnderstanding forest responses to climate variations is urgently needed for anticipating changes in forest composition and biodiversity. We use twelve tree-ring chronologies from Nothofagus dombeyi, the dominant tree at mesic-to-humid sites, to characterize climate–growth relationships along the west-to-east precipitation gradient in Nahuel Huapi National Park, Argentina. A principal components analysis indicates that a large proportion of common variance in tree growth reflects regional-scale influences of climate. Correlation functions between climate and tree-ring indexes show that the critical factor regulating tree growth is spring–summer water deficit induced by above-average temperature and reduced precipitation during the growing season. At high elevations, however, tree growth appears to be less sensitive to water deficit but comparatively more sensitive to warmer conditions. Temporal trends in climate–tree growth relationships supported the occurrence of a dominant large-scale climatic response, but also identify changes in climate–growth relationships over time, primarily at wet and high-elevation sites. These variations in climate–growth relationships are interpreted as a convergence process to similar patterns in tree growth across the entire precipitation gradient, as wet–cool conditions at high-elevation sites turned to be less frequent due to drier and warmer years during the late twentieth century. Sampling along environmental gradients provides a comprehensive view of the potential range of responses of tree growth to climate which is not recorded using traditional dendrochronological sampling at marginal, more climate-sensitive sites. The recent changes in the relationships between climate and growth highlight the vulnerability of N. dombeyi to climate changes across its entire range of distribution in Argentina.

Identification of selected CITES-protected Araucariaceae using DART TOFMS

Determining the species source of logs and planks suspected of being Araucaria araucana (Molina) K.Koch (CITES Appendix I) using traditional wood anatomy has been difficult, because its anatomical features are not diagnostic. Additionally, anatomical studies of Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze, Araucaria heterophylla (Salisb.) Franco, Agathis australis (D.Don) Lindl., and Wollemia nobilis W.G.Jones, K.D.Hill & J.M.Allen have reported that these taxa have similar and indistinguishable anatomical characters from A. araucana. Transnational shipments of illegal timber obscure their geographic provenance, and therefore identification using wood anatomy alone is insufficient in a criminal proceeding. In this study we examine the macroscopic appearance of selected members of the Araucariaceae and investigate whether analysis of heartwood chemotypes using Direct Analysis in Real Time (DART) Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (TOFMS) is useful for making species determinations. DART TOFMS data were collected from 5 species (n =75 spectra). The spectra were analyzsed statistically using supervised and unsupervised classification algorithms. Results indicate that A. araucana can be distinguished from the look-alike taxa. Another statistical inference of the data suggests that Wollemia nobilis is more similar and within the same clade as Agathis australis. We conclude that DART TOFMS spectra can help in making species determination of the Araucariaceae even when the geographic provenance is unknown.

Data Descriptor: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

PAGES, a core project of Future Earth, is supported by the U.S. and Swiss National Science Foundations. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Some of this work was conducted as part of the North America 2k Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the U.S. Geological Survey. B. Bauer, W. Gross, and E. Gille (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) are gratefully acknowledged for helping assemble the data citations and creating the NCEI versions of the PAGES 2k data records. We thank all the investigators whose commitment to data sharing enables the open science ethos embodied by this project.

Fire History and Fire Regimes Shifts in Patagonian Temperate Forests

Fire has been a frequent disturbance in Patagonia. The presence of charcoal in sedimentary records covering the last 44,000 years suggests that natural fires played a significant role in shaping the landscape before the arrival of Native Americans ca. 14,500–12,500 years ago. Dendrochronological studies focused on the reconstruction of fire histories have been conducted in the Patagonian forests on both sides of the Andes Cordillera, beginning in the late 1990s. Here, we review the present knowledge of the history of fires in temperate forests in Patagonia, their main drivers, and discuss the evidence and impacts of burns and reburns on post-fire response, as well as possible mechanisms to shift into alternative stable states. Dendrochronology was extremely useful to develop multi-century fire histories in Araucaria araucana, Pilgerodendron uviferum, Fitzroya cupressoides and Austrocedrus chilensis and mixed Austrocedrus-Nothofagus dombeyi forests in Patagonia. In the case of Araucaria, Austrocedrus and Pilgerodendron forests, dendrochronological reconstructions show diverse and heterogeneous patterns of fire frequency related to changes in human activities and settlement processes over the last centuries. Fire history reconstructions document infrequent events in the Fitzroya wet rainforests, with ca. 800-year old in the Costal Range in South-Central Chile and ca. 1000-year old chronologies in the Argentinean Andes. Climate variability has a significant influence on fire occurrence in these Patagonian forests. Fire events have been strongly associated with low moisture availability linked to El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the major climate drivers promoting fire. Future directions and challenges for fire history studies in Patagonian forests are proposed at the end of this chapter.