Igor I. Zveryaev

Summertime precipitation variability over Europe and its links to atmospheric dynamics and evaporation

[1] Gridded monthly precipitation data for 1979-2006 from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project are used to investigate interannual summer precipitation variability over Europe and its links to regional atmospheric circulation and evaporation. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of European precipitation, explaining 17.2%-22.8% of its total variance, is stable during the summer season and is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatial-temporal structure of the second EOF mode is less stable and shows month-to-month variations during the summer season. This mode is linked to the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. Analysis of links between leading EOF modes of regional precipitation and evaporation has revealed a significant link between precipitation and evaporation from the European land surface, thus, indicating an important role of the local processes in summertime precipitation variability over Europe. Weaker, but statistically significant links have been found for evaporation from the surface of the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. Finally, in contrast to winter, no significant links have been revealed between European precipitation and evaporation in the North Atlantic during the summer season.

Contrasting interannual variability of atmospheric moisture over Europe during cold and warm seasons

Seasonality in the interannual variability of atmospheric moisture over Europe is investigated using precipitable water (PW) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data set for 1979–2004. Over Europe the summer PW and its interannual variability (expressed by standard deviations) are essentially larger than those of the winter season. The largest seasonal differences are found over eastern Europe and European Russia, where the summer PW climatology and magnitudes of its interannual variability exceed respective winter characteristics by a factor of 2.5–3.8. The first and second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of winter PW over Europe are associated, respectively, with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern. During summer the leading EOFs of PW are not linked to the known regional teleconnection patterns. Our analysis revealed that EOF-1 of summer PW is associated with sea level pressure (SLP) pattern characterized by two action centres of opposite polarity over northwestern Siberia and over a broad region including southern Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and part of northern Africa. The EOF-2 of summer PW is associated with cyclonic/anticyclonic SLP anomalies over Scandinavia and southwestern Europe. It is shown that PW and precipitation variability are positively coupled during the cold season but not for the warm season. Instead, during the warm season we found a significant link between regionalPWand air temperature variability, indicating an important role of local heating in variability of summer PW over Europe.

Interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation and its relation to regional climate

Gridded monthly evaporation data for 1958–2006 from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution data set are used to investigate interannual variability of Mediterranean evaporation during cold and hot seasons and its relation to regional atmospheric dynamics, sea surface temperature and atmospheric elements of the hydrological cycle. The first EOF mode of Mediterranean evaporation, explaining more than 50% of its total variance, is characterized by the monopole pattern both in winter and summer. However, despite structural similarity, the EOF-1 of Mediterranean evaporation is affected by different climate signals in cold and hot seasons. During winter the EOF-1 is associated with the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern. In summer, there is indication of tropical influence on the EOF-1 of Mediterranean evaporation (presumably from Asian monsoon). Both in winter and summer, principal components of EOF-1 demonstrate clear interdecadal signals (with a stronger signature in summer) associated with large sea surface temperature anomalies. The results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that in winter both the meridional wind and the vertical gradient of saturation specific humidity (GSSH) near the sea surface contribute to the interdecadal evaporation signal. In summer, however, it is likely that the signal is more related to GSSH. Our analysis did not reveal significant links between the Mediterranean evaporation and the North Atlantic Oscillation in any season. The EOF-2 of evaporation accounts for 20% (11%) of its total variance in winter (in summer). Both in winter and summer the EOF-2 is characterized by a zonal dipole with opposite variations of evaporation in western and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. This mode is associated presumably with smaller scale (i.e., local) effects of atmospheric dynamics. Seasonality of the leading modes of the Mediterranean evaporation is also clearly seen in the character of their links to atmospheric elements of the regional hydrological cycle. In particular, significant links to precipitation in some regions have been found in winter, but not in summer.

Recent climate changes in precipitable water in the global tropics as revealed in National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis

[1] For the first time, long-term climate changes in the atmospheric moisture over the global tropics are investigated using precipitable water (PW) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data sets for two different periods: 1979–1998 and 1948–1998. Dominant modes of PW variability estimated for the shorter period (1979–1998) are in an overall agreement with those of satellite-estimated precipitation in terms of both empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) spatial patterns and time-dependent coefficients. Encouraged by this result, the entire time series of PW for the period of 1948–1998 is subsequently examined. Climatology of annual mean PW agrees well with the radiosonde-based and satellite-based climatologies of atmospheric moisture. EOF analysis applied to the entire time series indicates that the two leading modes explain 37.3% of the total variance of PW. The first EOF mode reflects that the trend-like change is associated with evolutions in the observing systems of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. The second EOF has a spatial pattern, which is characterized by the zonal dipole structure. This mode is associated

Seasonal differences in intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mediterranean Sea surface temperature

Sea surface temperature (SST) data from the NOAA OI SST data set for 1982–2011 are used to investigate intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mediterranean SST during winter and summer seasons. It is shown that during winter the intraseasonal SST fluctuations are larger than the interannual SST variations in the western Mediterranean (e.g., the Tyrrhenian Sea), but smaller in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. In summer, the intraseasonal SST fluctuations are larger in almost the entire Mediterranean basin. Also summertime intraseasonal SST fluctuations are larger (up to three times near the Gulf of Lions) than their wintertime counterparts in the entire Mediterranean basin. The interannual SST variations are larger during summer in the western and central Mediterranean Sea and during winter in its eastern part. The leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the Mediterranean SST and of the intensities of its intraseasonal fluctuations are characterized by the differing spatial-temporal structures both during winter and summer implying that their interannual variability is driven by different physical mechanisms. During winter, the EOF-1 of SST is associated with the East Atlantic teleconnection, whereas EOF-1 of the intensity of intraseasonal fluctuations is not linked significantly to regional atmospheric dynamics. The second EOFs of these variables are associated, respectively, with the East Atlantic/West Russia and the North Atlantic teleconnections. While during summer the atmospheric influence on Mediterranean SST is generally weaker, it is revealed that the EOF-1 of the intensity of intraseasonal SST fluctuations is linked to the Polar teleconnection.

Interannual variability in the summertime hydrological cycle over European regions

A variety of observations-based hydrological variables from different data sets are used to investigate interannual variability and changes in the summertime hydrological cycle over four European regions—Iberian Peninsula (IP), British Isles (BI), Central Europe (CE), and European Russia (ER). An analysis performed on seasonal means (June, July, and August) suggests that soil moisture variability is impacted almost equally by precipitation and air temperature in BI and ER regions. However, stronger links between soil moisture and precipitation are revealed for CE region and between soil moisture and air temperature for IP region. In all except IP regions summertime interannual variability of column-integrated water vapor is strongly linked to air temperature consistent with the dominating influence of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. In BI, CE, and ER interannual variability of regional precipitation is driven by variations in atmospheric moisture transport into these regions. In IP the link between precipitation and moisture transport is relatively weak. Based on monthly data, analysis of the lag-lead correlations revealed specific regional relationships between different hydrological variables. In particular, it is shown that in some regions (and months) interannual variability of soil moisture is linked more strongly to precipitation and air temperature anomalies in the previous month, rather than in the coinciding month. An analysis of the vertical structure of regional atmospheric moisture transport has revealed that the more continental the climate of the region is, the larger deviation from the mean (i.e., climatological) profile might be observed during anomalously dry/wet summers.