Igor V. Kamenkovich

Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth’s climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-S v( 1 Sv 10 6 m 3 s 1 ) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate some weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration

[ 1] As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, integrations with a common design have been undertaken with eleven different climate models to compare the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation ( THC) to time-dependent climate change caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over 140 years, during which the CO2 concentration quadruples, the circulation strength declines gradually in all models, by between 10 and 50%. No model shows a rapid or complete collapse, despite the fairly rapid increase and high final concentration of CO2. The models having the strongest overturning in the control climate tend to show the largest THC reductions. In all models, the THC weakening is caused more by changes in surface heat flux than by changes in surface water flux. No model shows a cooling anywhere, because the greenhouse warming is dominant.

Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: a model intercomparison

We present results from an intercomparison of 11 different climate models of intermediate complexity, in which the North Atlantic Ocean was subjected to slowly varying changes in freshwater input. All models show a characteristic hysteresis response of the thermohaline circulation to the freshwater forcing; which can be explained by Stommels salt advection feedback. The width of the hysteresis curves varies between 0.2 and 0.5 Sv in the models. Major differences are found in the location of present-day climate on the hysteresis diagram. In seven of the models, present-day climate for standard parameter choices is found in the bi-stable regime, in four models this climate is in the mono-stable regime. The proximity of the present-day climate to the Stommel bifurcation point, beyond which North Atlantic Deep Water formation cannot be sustained, varies from less than 0.1 Sv to over 0.5 Sv.

A mechanism of formation of multiple zonal jets in the oceans

Multiple alternating zonal jets observed in the ocean are studied with an idealized quasigeostrophic model of flow in a zonal channel. The jets are maintained by the eddies generated by the imposed, supercritical background flow. The formation, nonlinear dynamics and equilibration of the jets are explained in terms of linear stability arguments and nonlinear self-interactions of the linear eigenmodes. In the proposed mechanism, energy of the background flow is released to the primary instability mode with long meridional and short zonal length scales. This mode undergoes secondary, transverse instability that sets the meridional scale of the emerging multiple zonal jets. This instability channels energy into several weakly damped zonal eigenmodes that amplify the jets. The emerging jets feed back on the instabilities through the partial meridional localization of the most unstable eigenmodes.

Simulation of Subantarctic Mode and Antarctic Intermediate Waters in Climate Models

The Southern Ocean’s Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are two globally significant upper-ocean water masses that circulate in all Southern Hemisphere subtropical gyres and cross the equator to enter the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. Simulations of SAMW and AAIW for the twentieth century in eight climate models [GFDL-CM2.1, CCSM3, CNRM-CM3, MIROC3.2(medres), MIROC3.2(hires), MRI-CGCM2.3.2, CSIRO-Mk3.0, and UKMO-HadCM3] that provided their output in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) have been compared to the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Atlas of Regional Seas. The climate models, except for UKMO-HadCM3, CSIRO-Mk3.0, and MRI-CGCM2.3.2, provide a reasonable simulation of SAMW and AAIW isopycnal temperature and salinity in the Southern Ocean. Many models simulate the potential vorticity minimum layer and salinity minimum layer of SAMW and AAIW, respectively. However, the simulated SAMW layer is generally thinner and at lighter densities than observed. All climate models display a limited equatorward extension of SAMW and AAIW north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Errors in the simulation of SAMW and AAIW property characteristics are likely to be due to a combination of many errors in the climate models, including simulation of wind and buoyancy forcing, inadequate representation of subgridscale mixing processes in the Southern Ocean, and midlatitude diapycnal mixing parameterizations.

Eddy-Induced Particle Dispersion in the Near-Surface North Atlantic

AbstractThis study investigates the anisotropic properties of the eddy-induced material transport in the near-surface North Atlantic from two independent datasets, one simulated from the sea surface height altimetry and one derived from real-ocean surface drifters, and systematically examines the interactions between the mean- and eddy-induced material transport in the region. The Lagrangian particle dispersion, which is widely used to characterize the eddy-induced tracer fluxes, is quantified by constructing the “spreading ellipses.” The analysis consistently demonstrates that this dispersion is spatially inhomogeneous and strongly anisotropic. The spreading is larger and more anisotropic in the subtropical than in the subpolar gyre, and the largest ellipses occur in the Gulf Stream vicinity. Even at times longer than half a year, the spreading exhibits significant nondiffusive behavior in some parts of the domain. The eddies in this study are defined as deviations from the long-term time-mean. The contr...

A Model of Multiple Zonal Jets in the Oceans: Dynamical and Kinematical Analysis

Multiple alternating zonal jets observed in the ocean are studied with an idealized quasigeostrophic zonalchannel model, with the supercritical, zonal background flow imposed. Both eastward and westward background flows with vertical shear are considered. The underlying nonlinear dynamics is illuminated with analysis of the vertical-mode interactions and time-mean eddy fluxes. Interactions between the vertical modes are systematically studied. The barotropic component of the jets is maintained by both barotropic‐barotropic and baroclinic‐baroclinic time-mean interactions; thus, the barotropic component of the jets cannot be accurately simulated with a randomly forced barotropic model. The roles of the vertical-mode interactions in driving the baroclinic component of the jets are also characterized. Not only the first but also the second baroclinic mode is found to be important for maintaining the baroclinic component of the jets, whereas the barotropic component of the jets is maintained mostly by the barotropic and first baroclinic modes. The properties of the eddy forcing were systematically studied. It is shown that the baroclinic component of the jets is maintained by Reynolds stress forcing and resisted by form stress forcing only in the eastward backgroundflow.Inthe westwardbackgroundflow,thejets aremaintainedby formstressforcing andresisted by Reynolds stress forcing. The meridional scaling and kinematical properties of the jets are studied as well as the roles of meridional boundaries. The Rhines scaling for meridional spacing of the jets is not generally confirmed, and it is also shown that there are multiple stable equilibria with different numbers of the time-mean jets. It is also found that the jets are associated with alternating weak barriers to the meridional material transport, but the locations of these barriers are not unique and depend on the direction of the background flow and depth. Finally, if the channel is closed with meridional walls, then the jets become more latent but the eddy forcing properties do not change qualitatively.

Role of Eddy Forcing in the Dynamics of Multiple Zonal Jets in a Model of the North Atlantic

Multiple zonal jets are observed in satellite data‐based estimates of oceanic velocities, float measurements, and high-resolution numerical simulations of the ocean circulation. This study makes a step toward understanding the dynamics of these jets in the real ocean by analyzing the vertical structure and dynamical balances within multiple zonal jets simulated in an eddy-resolving primitive equation model of the North Atlantic. In particular, the authors focus on the role of eddy flux convergences (‘‘eddy forcing’’) in supporting the buoyancy and relative/potential vorticity (PV) anomalies associated with the jets. The results suggest a central role of baroclinic eddies in the barotropic and baroclinic dynamics of the jets, and significant differences in the effects of eddy forcing between the subtropical and subpolar gyres. Additionally, diabatic potential vorticity sources and sinks, associated with vertical diffusion, are shown to play an important role in supporting the potential vorticity anomalies. The resulting potential vorticity profile does not resemble a ‘‘PV staircase’’—a distinct meridional structure observed in some idealized studies of geostrophic turbulence.

Anisotropic Material Transport by Eddies and Eddy-Driven Currents in a Model of the North Atlantic

Abstract This study analyzes anisotropic properties of the material transport by eddies and eddy-driven zonal jets in a general circulation model of the North Atlantic through the analysis of Lagrangian particle trajectories. Spreading rates—defined here as half the rate of change in the particle dispersion—in the zonal direction systematically exceed the meridional rates by an order of magnitude. Area-averaged values for the upper-ocean zonal and meridional spreading rates are approximately 8100 and 1400 m2 s−1, respectively, and in the deep ocean they are 2400 and 200 m2 s−1. The results demonstrate that this anisotropy is mainly due to the action of the transient eddies and not to the shear dispersion associated with the time-mean jets. This property is consistent with the fact that eddies in this study have zonally elongated shapes. With the exception of the upper-ocean subpolar gyre, eddies also cause the superdiffusive zonal spreading, significant variations in the spreading rate in the vertical and...

The Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake in Transient Climate Change

The deep-ocean heat uptake (DOHU) in transient climate changes is studied using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and its adjoint. The model configuration consists of idealized Pacific and Atlantic basins. The model is forced with the anomalies of surface heat and freshwater fluxes from a global warming scenario with a coupled model using the same ocean configuration. In the global warming scenario, CO 2 concentration increases 1% yr21. The heat uptake calculated from the coupled model and from the adjoint are virtually identical, showing that the heat uptake by the OGCM is a linear process. After 70 yr the ocean heat uptake is almost evenly distributed within the layers above 200 m, between 200 and 700 m, and below 700 m (about 20 3 1022 J in each). The effect of anomalous surface freshwater flux on the DOHU is negligible. Analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-2) data for the same global warming scenario shows that qualitatively similar results apply to coupled atmosphere‐ocean GCMs. The penetration of surface heat flux to the deep ocean in the OGCM occurs mainly in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, since both the sensitivity of DOHU to the surface heat flux and the magnitude of anomalous surface heat flux are large in these two regions. The DOHU relies on the reduction of convection and Gent‐ McWilliams‐Redi mixing in the North Atlantic, and the reduction of Gent‐McWilliams‐Redi mixing in the Southern Ocean.