Ilan Alon

Forecasting aggregate retail sales

Abstract Like many other economic time series, US aggregate retail sales have strong trend and seasonal patterns. How to best model and forecast these patterns has been a long-standing issue in time-series analysis. This article compares artificial neural networks and traditional methods including Winters exponential smoothing, Box–Jenkins ARIMA model, and multivariate regression. The results indicate that on average ANNs fare favorably in relation to the more traditional statistical methods, followed by the Box–Jenkins model. Despite its simplicity, the Winters model was shown to be a viable method for multiple-step forecasting under relatively stable economic conditions. The derivative analysis shows that the neural network model is able to capture the dynamic nonlinear trend and seasonal patterns, as well as the interactions between them.

An examination of international retail franchising in emerging markets

There has been an urgent call from both the franchise industry and the academic community for research on world franchising markets, specifically in the retail sector. This article is an attempt to summarize the main research that has been conducted thus far on international retail franchising. The article begins with an overview of the development of the literature and then discusses the nature and scope of emerging markets, with particular reference to their impact on the stakeholders of international retail franchising. Next, the article develops a conceptual model relating international retail franchising to its stakeholders. Then, a review of the research is divided into the areas of emerging world market: Central and Eastern Europe, Mexico and South America, Asia, and other areas that include India, Kuwait, and South Africa. The article concludes by discussing the next step to developing a research base for further understanding of emerging markets in addition to the opportunities and challenges for retail franchising and future research.

The Use of Franchising by U.S.-Based Retailers

The question of whether to franchise or to own has received much research interest in recent years. Two popular approaches used to explain the proportion of franchising (PF) in the franchisors system are resource‐scarcity and agency theories. This study combines both theories to explain the proportion of franchised outlets in the U.S. retailing sector between 1990 and 1997. The findings show mixed results with regard to both previous studies and hypothesized relationships. The study shows that the proportion of franchising used by retailers is positively related to size (number of outlets) and geographical scope, and negatively related to the rate of growth and the level of investment. Age and royalty rates are not found to be significant to the proportion of franchising.

Global Franchising and Development in Emerging and Transitioning Markets

The conventional wisdom that prevails in theWest is that franchising provides a net benefit to the host market. In addition to the obvious economic benefits of employment, output, and tax, franchising development injects expertise and training in various industries and increases the entrepreneurial and managerial capabilities and skills of the labor force. The unique nature of international franchising may, however, create social pressures, cultural clashes, and perceived challenges to national cultures. This article discusses a framework to assess the potential economic and social benefits and costs of international franchising. It then discusses the implication of this framework and an agenda for future research.

Franchising Opportunities and Threats in Russia

This article pertains to franchising in Russia, a post-Communist economy with one of the largest market potentials for American business. The authors focus on the environmental factors associated with international franchising in Russia and examine the four Ps and the entry strategies available to prospective franchisors, which provides the background for a franchising marketing plan. In addition, this research provides rules of thumb to potential market entrants into Russia.

Executive insight: evaluating the market size for service franchising in emerging markets

Purpose – The purpose of this article is to propose a framework for analyzing the comparative economic market size for service franchisors in emerging markets using current and available data from the World Bank.Design/methodology/approach – Data is transformed through simple manipulations to derive information‐filled rankings of 20 popular emerging markets. Emerging markets constitute the largest and most dynamic markets for international franchisors.Findings – The findings show that Brazil, Russia, and Mexico outranked China and India as the markets with the largest economies for service franchising. Future research should enhance the economic analysis and measures developed in the article and use them in conjunction with other environmental, industry, and company variables to estimate the market potential and select the appropriate markets for entry.Practical implications – Attempting to estimate the market size of emerging markets is often only the first step in international market selection.Original...

Market Conditions Favoring Master International Franchising

Master international franchising is among the fastest growing methods for international franchisors to expand abroad because this method involves minimal financial risk and a quick go‐to‐market strategy. This article reviews the extant literature and develops propositions relating specific environmental factors to the propensity of franchisors to use master international franchising. We propose that master international franchising is more likely when the economic potential and level of corruption are low; and when the competitive intensity, demand variability, franchise knowledge, masculinity and individualism in society, geographical and cultural distance, country risk, and level of legal protection are high

Internet‐based experiential learning in international marketing: the case of Globalview.org

The paper discusses a unique Internet‐based learning forum, Globalview.org (www.globalview. org), which involves the construction of international business plans for real companies seeking internationalisation. The purpose of global cases is to link student teams in international collaborative learning projects by empowering students to participate in setting learning goals and learning processes, and enabling instructors to be closer to the students in the learning process. This article reports on the experience of one college using Globalview.org, and discusses likely outcomes that may emerge from using Internet‐based experiential projects in the classroom.

Business and Management Education in China : Transition, Pedagogy and Training

This pioneering book offers a unique constellation of essays focused on the important social and economic changes affecting educational institutions in China. It provides an in-depth examination of the potential and obstacles for business and management education in the worlds second largest economy and most populated country. This volume is an essential resource for anyone with an interest in teaching, developing a new program, or entering into a joint venture in China. A wide range of topics, such as economic transition, pedagogical issues, professional training and alliance formation, are discussed from the standpoint of deans, educators, directors and consultants of educational institutions hailing from both the East and the West.

Evaluating the Economic Impact of Cruise Tourism: A Case Study of Barbados

ABSTRACT The failure of the import substitution model for economic development has led many countries to look for alternative explanations. The success of export led development in South Korean, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong has resulted in some countries shifting their development to industries in which they have a comparative advantage, that is, export industries. Tourism is one export industry that developing nations, particularly Island economies, have a comparative advantage. Traditionally, the most important reason for developing a tourism industry is the expected macroeconomic benefits. With improvement in the balance of payments being the most important of those benefits. This study develops a model to evaluate the impact of cruise tourism on a destination and tests the model on the economy of Barbados.