Ilan Koren

Global aerosol climatology from the MODIS satellite sensors

The recently released Collection 5 MODIS aerosol products provide a consistent record of the Earths aerosol system. Comparison with ground-based AERONET observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) we find that Collection 5 MODIS aerosol products estimate AOD to within expected accuracy more than 60% of the time over ocean and more than 72% of the time over land. This is similar to previous results for ocean, and better than the previous results for land. However, the new Collection introduces a 0.01 5 offset between the Terra and Aqua global mean AOD over ocean, where none existed previously. Aqua conforms to previous values and expectations while Terra is high. The cause of the offset is unknown, but changes to calibration are a possible explanation. We focus the climatological analysis on the better understood Aqua retrievals. We find that global mean AOD at 550 nm over oceans is 0.13 and over land 0.19. AOD in situations with 80% cloud fraction are twice the global mean values, although such situations occur only 2% of the time over ocean and less than 1% of the time over land. There is no drastic change in aerosol particle size associated with these very cloudy situations. Regionally, aerosol amounts vary from polluted areas such as East Asia and India, to the cleanest regions such as Australia and the northern continents. In almost all oceans fine mode aerosol dominates over dust, except in the tropical Atlantic downwind of the Sahara and in some months the Arabian Sea.

Smoke Invigoration Versus Inhibition of Clouds over the Amazon

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds is one of the most important and least understood aspects of human-induced climate change. Small changes in the amount of cloud coverage can produce a climate forcing equivalent in magnitude and opposite in sign to that caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and changes in cloud height can shift the effect of clouds from cooling to warming. Focusing on the Amazon, we show a smooth transition between two opposing effects of aerosols on clouds: the microphysical and the radiative. We show how a feedback between the optical properties of aerosols and the cloud fraction can modify the aerosol forcing, changing the total radiative energy and redistributing it over the atmospheric column.

The Bodélé depression: a single spot in the Sahara that provides most of the mineral dust to the Amazon forest

About 40 million tons of dust are transported annually from the Sahara to the Amazon basin. Saharan dust has been proposed to be the main mineral source that fertilizes the Amazon basin, generating a dependence of the health and productivity of the rain forest on dust supply from the Sahara. Here we show that about half of the annual dust supply to the Amazon basin is emitted from a single source: the Bodele depression located northeast of Lake Chad, approximately 0.5% of the size of the Amazon or 0.2% of the Sahara. Placed in a narrow path between two mountain chains that direct and accelerate the surface winds over the depression, the Bodele emits dust on 40% of the winter days, averaging more than 0.7 million tons of dust per day

A critical examination of the residual cloud contamination and diurnal sampling effects on MODIS estimates of aerosol over ocean

Observations of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard Terra and Aqua satellites are being used extensively for applications to climate and air quality studies. Data quality is essential for these studies. Here we investigate the effects of unresolved clouds on the MODIS measurements of the AOT. The main cloud effect is from residual cirrus that increases the AOT by 0.015/spl plusmn/0.003 at 0.55 /spl mu/m. In addition, lower level clouds can add contamination. We examine the effect of lower clouds using the difference between simultaneously measured MODIS and AERONET AOT. The difference is positively correlated with the cloud fraction. However, interpretation of this difference is sensitive to the definition of cloud contamination versus aerosol growth. If we consider this consistent difference between MODIS and AERONET to be entirely due to cloud contamination we get a total cloud contamination of 0.025/spl plusmn/0.005, though a more likely estimate is closer to 0.020 after accounting for aerosol growth. This reduces the difference between MODIS-observed global aerosol optical thickness over the oceans and model simulations by half, from 0.04 to 0.02. However it is insignificant for studies of aerosol cloud interaction. We also examined how representative are the MODIS data of the diurnal average aerosol. Comparison to monthly averaged sunphotometer data confirms that either the Terra or Aqua estimate of global AOT is a valid representation of the daily average. Though in the vicinity of aerosol sources such as fires, we do not expect this to be true.

Precipitation-generated oscillations in open cellular cloud fields

Cloud fields adopt many different patterns that can have a profound effect on the amount of sunlight reflected back to space, with important implications for the Earth’s climate. These cloud patterns can be observed in satellite images of the Earth and often exhibit distinct cell-like structures associated with organized convection at scales of tens of kilometres. Recent evidence has shown that atmospheric aerosol particles—through their influence on precipitation formation—help to determine whether cloud fields take on closed (more reflective) or open (less reflective) cellular patterns. The physical mechanisms controlling the formation and evolution of these cells, however, are still poorly understood, limiting our ability to simulate realistically the effects of clouds on global reflectance. Here we use satellite imagery and numerical models to show how precipitating clouds produce an open cellular cloud pattern that oscillates between different, weakly stable states. The oscillations are a result of precipitation causing downward motion and outflow from clouds that were previously positively buoyant. The evaporating precipitation drives air down to the Earth’s surface, where it diverges and collides with the outflows of neighbouring precipitating cells. These colliding outflows form surface convergence zones and new cloud formation. In turn, the newly formed clouds produce precipitation and new colliding outflow patterns that are displaced from the previous ones. As successive cycles of this kind unfold, convergence zones alternate with divergence zones and new cloud patterns emerge to replace old ones. The result is an oscillating, self-organized system with a characteristic cell size and precipitation frequency.

Links between topography, wind, deflation, lakes and dust: The case of the Bodélé Depression, Chad

The Bodele Depression, Chad is the planets largest single source of dust. Deflation from the Bodele could be seen as a simple coincidence of two key prerequisites: strong surface winds and a large source of suitable sediment. But here we hypothesise that long term links between topography, winds, deflation and dust ensure the maintenance of the dust source such that these two apparently coincidental key ingredients are connected by land-atmosphere processes with topography acting as the overall controlling agent. We use a variety of observational and numerical techniques, including a regional climate model, to show that: 1) contemporary deflation from the Bodele is delineated by topography and a surface wind stress maximum; 2) the Tibesti and Ennedi mountains play a key role in the generation of the erosive winds in the form of the Bodele Low Level Jet (LLJ); 3) enhanced deflation from a stronger Bodele LLJ during drier phases, for example, the Last Glacial Maximum, was probably sufficient to create the shallow lake in which diatoms lived during wetter phases, such as the Holocene pluvial. Winds may therefore have helped to create the depression in which erodible diatom material accumulated. Instead of a simple coincidence of nature, dust from the worlds largest source may result from the operation of long term processes on paleo timescales which have led to ideal conditions for dust generation in the worlds largest dust source. Similar processes plausibly operate in other dust hotspots in topographic depressions.

Quantifying uncertainty in estimates of mineral dust flux: An intercomparison of model performance over the Bodélé Depression, northern Chad

Mineral dust aerosols play an important role in the climate system. Coupled climate-aerosol models are an important tool with which to quantify dust fluxes and the associated climate impact. Over the last decade or more, numerous models have been developed, both global and regional, but to date, there have been few attempts to compare the performance of these models. In this paper a comparison of five regional atmospheric models with dust modules is made, in terms of their simulation of meteorology, dust emission and transport. The intercomparison focuses on a 3-day dust event over the Bodele depression in northern Chad, the worlds single most important dust source. Simulations are compared to satellite data and in situ observations from the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx 2005). Overall, the models reproduce many of the key features of the meteorology and the large dust plumes that occur over the study domain. However, there is at least an order of magnitude range in model estimates of key quantities including dust concentration, dust burden, dust flux, and aerosol optical thickness. As such, there remains considerable uncertainty in model estimates of the dust cycle and its interaction with climate. This paper discusses the issues associated with partitioning various sources of model uncertainty.

From aerosol-limited to invigoration of warm convective clouds

Invigorating convection in warm clouds Atmospheric aerosols—tiny airborne particles—affect the way clouds form and how they affect climate. Koren et al. investigated how the formation of warm clouds, such as those that form over the oceans, depends on pollution levels (see the Perspective by Remer). Aerosols affect cloud formation in cleaner air disproportionately more than in more polluted air. Before the widespread air pollution of the industrial era, it seems, warm convective clouds may have covered much less of the oceans than they do today. Science, this issue p. 1143; see also p. 1089 Low concentrations of atmospheric aerosols have a dramatic effect on the invigoration of convection in warm clouds. [Also see Perspective by Remer] Among all cloud-aerosol interactions, the invigoration effect is the most elusive. Most of the studies that do suggest this effect link it to deep convective clouds with a warm base and cold top. Here, we provide evidence from observations and numerical modeling of a dramatic aerosol effect on warm clouds. We propose that convective-cloud invigoration by aerosols can be viewed as an extension of the concept of aerosol-limited clouds, where cloud development is limited by the availability of cloud-condensation nuclei. A transition from pristine to slightly polluted atmosphere yields estimated negative forcing of ~15 watts per square meter (cooling), suggesting that a substantial part of this anthropogenic forcing over the oceans occurred at the beginning of the industrial era, when the marine atmosphere experienced such transformation.

Aerosol–cloud–precipitation system as a predator-prey problem

We show that the aerosol–cloud–precipitation system exhibits characteristics of the predator-prey problem in the field of population dynamics. Both a detailed large eddy simulation of the dynamics and microphysics of a precipitating shallow boundary layer cloud system and a simpler model built upon basic physical principles, reproduce predator-prey behavior with rain acting as the predator and cloud as the prey. The aerosol is shown to modulate the predator-prey response. Steady-state solution to the proposed model shows the known existence of bistability in cloudiness. Three regimes are identified in the time-dependent solutions: (i) the weakly precipitating regime where cloud and rain coexist in a quasi steady state; (ii) the moderately drizzling regime where limit-cycle behavior in the cloud and rain fields is produced; and (iii) the heavily precipitating clouds where collapse of the boundary layer is predicted. The manifestation of predator-prey behavior in the aerosol–cloud–precipitation system is a further example of the self-organizing properties of the system and suggests that exploiting principles of population dynamics may help reduce complex aerosol–cloud–rain interactions to a more tractable problem.

Aerosol-cloud interaction-Misclassification of MODIS clouds in heavy aerosol

The accuracy of the spaceborne Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud mask was evaluated for possible contamination by areas of heavy aerosol that may be misclassified as clouds. Analysis for several aerosol types shows that the cloud mask and products can be safely used in the presence of aerosol up to optical thickness of 0.6. Here we define as cloudy all MODIS 1-km (at nadir) pixels that were used to derive the cloud effective radius and optical thickness of water and ice clouds. The findings make it possible to study aerosol-cloud interaction from the MODIS aerosol and cloud products.