Ilhyock Shim

What Can (Macro-) Prudential Policy do to Support Monetary Policy?

In the economic environment that has been emerging over the last couple of decades, it is more likely that the occasional build-up of financial imbalances, typically in the form of unsustainable credit and asset price booms, will occur against the background of low and stable inflation, posing a potential threat to financial and macroeconomic stability. This means that the scope for monetary policy to lean against the build-up may be more constrained than in the past, when those imbalances would normally develop alongside rising inflation. This puts a premium on a strengthening of the macroprudential orientation of prudential frameworks, designed to restrain the build up of the imbalances and to make the financial system better able to withstand their unwinding. In this paper, we review the progress made in this direction in recent years. We conclude that there is now a much keener awareness of the importance of a macroprudential orientation but that progress in making it operational, while considerable, has been slower. The main obstacles are of an analytical and, above all, institutional/political economy nature. We suggest ways in which these obstacles could be addressed and underline the potential complementary role that adjustments in monetary policy frameworks could play.

Dynamic Prudential Regulation: Is Prompt Corrective Action Optimal?

Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) prescribes prompt and deterministic termination of banks with insufficient levels of book-value capital. This paper investigates whether reliance on book-value capital is a good policy choice and if PCA is an optimal regulatory approach. I use a variant of DeMarzo and Fishmans (2004) dynamic model of entrepreneurial finance to model interactions between a banker and a regulator. Under hidden choice of risk, private information on returns, limited commitment by the banker and costly liquidation, I first characterize the optimal incentive-feasible allocation, and then demonstrate that the optimal allocation is implementable through the combination of a risk-based deposit insurance premium and a book-value capital regulation with prompt and stochastic termination/bailout rather than deterministic termination with no bailout as in PCA. I also show that partial termination can be used instead of stochastic termination.

The impact of CDS trading on the bond market: Evidence from Asia.

This paper investigates the impact of CDS trading on the development of the bond market in Asia. In general, CDS trading has lowered the cost of issuing bonds and enhanced the liquidity in the bond market. The positive impact is stronger for smaller firms, non-financial firms and those firms with higher liquidity in the CDS market. These empirical findings support the diversification and information hypotheses in the literature. Nevertheless, CDS trading has also introduced a new source of risk. There is strong evidence that, at the peak of the recent global financial crisis, those firms included in CDS indices faced higher bond yield spreads than those not included.

A Model of the Imf As a Coinsurance Arrangement

The paper shows that a coinsurance arrangement among countries can, in principle, play a useful role in helping countries bear the risks involved in developing their economies and integrating into the global financial system. The operation of the coinsurance arrangement is examined under different loan contracts offered by the IMF. The analysis suggests that, if the IMF`s objective is to safeguard its resources and be concerned about the welfare of the borrower, an ex ante loan contract is more likely to create the right incentives induce higher effort by member countries to avoid and overcome crises than an ex-post loan contract. Such ex ante contracts highlight the need for precommitment to contend with the Samaritan`s dilemma and time inconsistency. The paper also shows that state-contingent repayment schemes are needed to deal with King Lear`s dilemma.

A Model of the IMF as a Coinsurance Arrangement

The paper develops a model of an IMF-like coinsurance arrangement among member countries. First, it shows that a coinsurance arrangement among countries can, in principle, play a useful role in helping countries bear the risks involved in developing their economies and becoming part of the global financial system. Second, the operation of the coinsurance arrangement is examined under different loan contracts offered by the IMF. The analysis suggests that, if the IMFs objective is to safeguard its resources and be concerned about the welfare of the borrower, an ex ante loan contract (that is a contract agreed to before problems arise) is more likely to create the right incentives - induce higher effort by member countries to avoid and overcome crises - than an ex-post loan contract (that is a contract made after problems arise). Such ex ante contracts highlight the need for precommitment to contend with the Samaritans dilemma and time inconsistency. It also shows that state-contingent repayment schemes are needed to deal with King Lears dilemma.

Volatility Contagion across the Equity Markets of Developed and Emerging Market Economies

Using variance risk premiums (VRPs) nonparametrically calculated from equity markets in selected major developed economies and emerging market economies (EMEs) over 2007‒2015, we document the correlation of VRPs across the markets and examine whether equity fund flows work as a path through which VRPs spill over globally. First, we find that VRPs tend to spike up during market turmoil such as the peak of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. Second, we find that all cross-equity market correlations of VRPs are positive, and that some economy pairs exhibit high levels of the correlation. In terms of volatility contagion, we find that an increase in VRPs in the United States significantly reduces equity fund flows to other developed economies, but not those to EMEs, in the period after the global financial crisis. Two-stage least squares estimation results show that equity fund flows are a channel for spillover of VRPs in the United States to VRPs in other developed economies.