Ralph Chami

Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development

There is a general presumption in the literature and among policymakers that immigrant remittances play the same role in economic development as foreign direct investment and other capital flows, but this is an open question. We develop a model of remittances based on the economics of the family that implies that remittances are not profit-driven, but are compensatory transfers, and should have a negative correlation with GDP growth. This is in contrast to the positive correlation of profit-driven capital flows with GDP growth. We test this implication of our model using a new panel data set on remittances and find a robust negative correlation between remittances and GDP growth. This indicates that remittances may not be intended to serve as a source of capital for economic development.

Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?

Remittance flows appear to be falling worldwide for the first time in decades as a result of the ongoing financial turmoil. It is suspected that the drop in remittance income into developing and emerging markets will have a destabilizing effect on these economies. The paper estimates the impact of remittances on output stability for countries that are dependent on these income flows. Using a sample of 70 countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries, we find robust evidence that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility of recipient countries. This result supports the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output. Thus, the fall in remittances precipitated by the ongoing global financial crisis could potentially increase output variability in recipient countries. This would present a hard challenge for governments in those countries already suffering from the crisis: they must resort to an already stressed and limited set of policy instruments, such as fiscal policy, to counter the resulting adverse economic and social impacts of lower remittances.

Beware of Emigrants Bearing Gifts; Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Presence of Remittances

Remittance flows are quickly surpassing private capital flows and official aid in magnitude and rate of growth, making them the single most important form of income flows into developing and emerging economies. This paper uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the influence of countercyclical remittances on the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy and trace their effects on real and nominal variables in a business cycle setting. We show that remittances raise disposable income and consumption and insure against income shocks, thereby raising household welfare. However, remittances increase the correlation between labor and output, thereby producing a more volatile business cycle and increasing output and labor market risk. Optimal monetary policy in the presence of remittances deviates from the Friedman rule, highlighting the need for independent government policy instruments.

What is Different About Family Businesses

Family businesses make up forty percent of the Fortune 500 companies in the US, generate about two-thirds of the German GDP, employ about one-half of the labor force in Britain, and account for the majority of the private economies in developing countries. This paper develops a theory of family business that brings market forces and the family, as a nonmarket institution, under one rubric. The paper highlights and analyzes important factors, including product market competition, trust, and succession, which allow family businesses to thrive and to successfully compete with other businesses.

Trust and Efficiency

This paper uses the economics of altruism to show how the presence or absence of trust between employees of the firm affects economic efficiency. We develop a simple model in which trust is defined as reciprocal altruism between two employees and show that the presence of trust improves efficiency by mitigating principal-agent problems. Firms characterized by trust between employees are more profitable and have higher levels of employee satisfaction than firms from which trust is absent. We also compare the effects of trust to those of profit-sharing plans and argue that cultivating trust in the firm is easier to implement.

The Stock Market Channel of Monetary Policy

This paper argues that the stock market is an important channel of monetary policy. Monetary policy affects real economic activity because inflation levies a property tax on stocks in addition to an income tax on dividend payments. Inflation thus taxes stocks more heavily than it does bonds. Households alter their required rate of return as inflation changes, and firms adjust production in order to satisfy their shareholders’ demands. As the stock market channel grows in importance, the appropriate intermediate target for the central bank is the price level, with price stability being the ultimate goal.

Managing ethical risk: How investing in ethics adds value

Abstract In September 1999, the University of Notre Dame hosted a conference entitled “Measuring and Managing Ethical Risk: How Investing in Ethics Adds Value”. The motivations for hosting the conference and the papers presented there are summarized. Several themes that are present in the papers are discussed. These include the gains from combining the anthropological approach to business ethics with the neoclassical economics approach, the central role of trust in business ethics, the role of ethics in the corporation, and the function of the legal system in setting and enforcing ethical standards for the financial system.

The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?

A large theoretical and empirical literature has focused on the impact of financial deepening on economic growth throughout the world. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether this impact differs across regions, income levels, and types of economy. Using a rich dataset for 150 countries for the period 1975–2005, dynamic panel estimation results suggest that the beneficial effect of financial deepening on economic growth in fact displays measurable heterogeneity; it is generally smaller in oil exporting countries; in certain regions, such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and in lower-income countries. Further analysis suggests that these differences might be driven by regulatory/supervisory characteristics and related to differences in the ability to provide widespread access to financial services.

The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa : What's the Damage?

Using data on the distribution of migrants from Africa, GDP growth forecasts for host countries, and after estimating remittance multipliers in recipient countries, this paper estimates the impact of the global economic crisis on African GDP via the remittance channel during 2009-2010. It forecasts remittance declines into African countries of between 3 and 14 percentage points, with migrants to Europe hardest hit while migrants within Africa relatively unaffected by the crisis. The estimated impact on GDP for relatively remittance-dependent countries is 2 percent for 2009, but will likely be short-lived, as host country income is projected to rise in 2010.

Did the Basel Accord Cause a Credit Slowdown in Latin America

Drawing from a unique data set comprising 2,893 banks and 152 countries over the period 1987 to 2000, we test whether the adoption of the Basel Accord by Latin American and Caribbean countries was responsible for the serious slowdowns in credit growth experienced by these countries. We find that, on average, both bank capitalization and lending activities in Latin America increased after Basel. Consequently, Basel did not seem to lead to an overall credit decline. However, we do find evidence that loan growth became more sensitive to some risk factors. Our study suggests that the upcoming adoption of Basel II might cause greater procyclicality of credit.