Ilya M. D. Maclean

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk.

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.

Recent evidence for the climate change threat to Lepidoptera and other insects

Climate change is now estimated by some biologists to be the main threat to biodiversity, but doubts persist regarding which species are most at risk, and how best to adapt conservation management. Insects are expected to be highly responsive to climate change, because they have short life cycles which are strongly influenced by temperature. Insects also constitute the most diverse taxonomic group, carrying out biotic interactions of importance for ecological functioning and ecosystem services, so their responses to climate change are likely to be of considerable wider ecological significance. However, a review of recent published evidence of observed and modelled effects of climate change in ten high-ranking journals shows that comparatively few such studies have focused on insects. The majority of these studies are on Lepidoptera, because of the existence of detailed contemporary and historical datasets. These biases in published information may influence conclusions regarding the threat of climate change to insect biodiversity. Assessment of the vulnerability of insect species protected by the Bern Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats also emphasises that most information is available for the Lepidoptera. In the absence of the necessary data to carry out detailed assessments of the likely effects of climate change on most threatened insects, we consider how autecological studies may help to illuminate the potential vulnerability of species, and draw preliminary conclusions about the priorities for insect conservation and research in a changing climate.

A Review of the Relative Merits of Conserving, Using, or Draining Papyrus Swamps

Wetlands are a vital resource, particularly in Africa where livelihoods are closely linked to natural capital. In recent years, extensive drainage has occurred to make way for agriculture. To gain insight into whether drainage is justified, we review the value of African wetlands dominated by Cyperus papyrus in relation to use, conservation and conversion. Evidence suggests that the value derived from low-intensity, multifunctional wetland use far exceeds the value derived from swamp reclamation and generally exceeds that of conservation. At a local level, the main driver of wetland misuse appear to be a breakdown in collaborative management regimes and the main constraint on wetland use, the value of labor and selling-times. Local drivers are linked to regional factors such as the lack of coordinated wetland policies and difficulties in ensuring that legislation is absorbed by all sectors of society. We highlight opportunities for ensuring more effective collaborative management and legislation communication, which capitalize on existing governance structures. In contrast to predictions by Hardin’s Tragedy of the Commons model, we argue that effective wetland management is best achieved by preventing privatization and promoting common property management regimes. We also argue that poverty and income inequity are more important drivers of unsustainable resource use than environmental managers commonly acknowledge.

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change

Summary Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management. Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea‐level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable. Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research. Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications. The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long‐term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear from the existing evidence that some techniques have a higher risk of failure or unexpected outcomes than others and managers will need to make careful choices about which to implement. We have assessed the strength of evidence of these approaches in order to demonstrate to conservation professionals the risks involved.

Effects of habitat degradation on avian guilds in East African papyrus Cyperus papyrus swamps

The density and species richness of bird communities in disturbed and undisturbed stands of papyrus Cyperus papyrus were compared. Point counts, corrected for different probabilities of detection in different swamps, suggested that the species richness of bird communities in stands of papyrus disturbed by burning, grazing or pollution was higher than in nearby stands that were not disturbed. However, there were fewer species and individuals of highly specialized birds or species characteristic of papyrus, in disturbed stands than in undisturbed swamps. At < 1 ha, the density of Papyrus Gonolek Laniarius mufumbiri in Ugandan swamps was, for example, significantly lower in polluted and burnt sites than in undisturbed papyrus where up to 13 ha were recorded in the centre of swamps. White-winged Swamp Warbler Bradypterus carpalis was only recorded in undisturbed papyrus. In the papyrus that fringes Lake Naivasha in Kenya, outside the geographical range of species restricted to papyrus, disturbance in the form of grazing selects against species classified as swamp-reliant. Species classified as generalist users of papyrus were much less sensitive to disturbance than specialists. The density of swamp specialists was also lower near the edge of swamps, where total species richness was higher. These results are discussed in relation to conservation management of papyrus swamps in East Africa.

Woody cover in wet and dry African savannas after six decades of experimental fires

Summary 1. Fire is an integral process in savannas because it plays a crucial role in altering woody cover of this globally important biome. 2. In this study, we examine the long-term effects of varying fire frequencies over a 60-year time period in South Africa. We analyse the effects of fire exclusion and of experimental burns every 1, 2 and 3 years on woody cover, tree abundance and stem structure on a wet and dry savanna. 3. Increased fire frequency did not display a consistent effect on woody cover. The presence of fire, irrespective of frequency, was much more influential in lowering tree abundance in the wet savanna than the dry savanna. In the dry savanna, fire was more effective in greatly increasing coppicing in trees, when compared to the wet savannas. 4. Synthesis. The effects of fire on three measures of savanna woody vegetation differed between wet and dry experimental sites. We suggest that vegetation responses to fire are dependent on local conditions, which are likely influenced by rainfall. Therefore, we suggest that management strategies should take account of whether a savanna is a wet or dry system when implementing fire management regimes.

Resolving issues with environmental impact assessment of marine renewable energy installations

Growing concerns about climate change and energy security have fuelled a rapid increase in the development of offshore and marine renewable energy installations (OMREIs). The potential ecological consequences of increased use of these devices emphasises the need for high quality environmental impact assessment (EIA). We demonstrate that these processes are hampered severely, primarily because legislation does not ensure that the significance of impacts and cumulative effects are properly assessed. We highlight why the regulatory framework leads to conceptual ambiguities and propose changes which, for the most part, do not require major adjustments to standard practice. We emphasise the importance of determining the degree of confidence in impacts to permit the likelihood as well as magnitude of impacts to be quantified and propose ways in which assessment of population-level impacts could be incorporated into the EIA process. Overall, however, we argue that, instead of trying to ascertain which particular developments are responsible for tipping an already heavily degraded marine environment into an undesirable state, emphasis should be placed on better strategic assessment.

Determinants of woody encroachment and cover in African savannas

Savanna ecosystems are an integral part of the African landscape and sustain the livelihoods of millions of people. Woody encroachment in savannas is a widespread phenomenon but its causes are widely debated. We review the extensive literature on woody encroachment to help improve understanding of the possible causes and to highlight where and how future scientific efforts to fully understand these causes should be focused. Rainfall is the most important determinant of maximum woody cover across Africa, but fire and herbivory interact to reduce woody cover below the maximum at many locations. We postulate that woody encroachment is most likely driven by CO2 enrichment and propose a two-system conceptual framework, whereby mechanisms of woody encroachment differ depending on whether the savanna is a wet or dry system. In dry savannas, the increased water-use efficiency in plants relaxes precipitation-driven constraints and increases woody growth. In wet savannas, the increase of carbon allocation to tree roots results in faster recovery rates after disturbance and a greater likelihood of reaching sexual maturity. Our proposed framework can be tested using a mixture of experimental and earth observational techniques. At a local level, changes in precipitation, burning regimes or herbivory could be driving woody encroachment, but are unlikely to be the explanation of this continent-wide phenomenon.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine

The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems.