Imran Nisar

Simplified antibiotic regimens for treatment of clinical severe infection in the outpatient setting when referral is not possible for young infants in Pakistan (Simplified Antibiotic Therapy Trial [SATT]): a randomised, open-label, equivalence trial

Summary Background Parenteral antibiotic therapy for young infants (aged 0–59 days) with suspected sepsis is sometimes not available or feasible in countries with high neonatal mortality. Outpatient treatment could save lives in such settings. We aimed to assess the equivalence of two simplified antibiotic regimens, comprising fewer injections and oral rather than parenteral administration, compared with a reference treatment for young infants with clinical severe infection. Methods We undertook the Simplified Antibiotic Therapy Trial (SATT), a three-arm, randomised, open-label, equivalence trial in five communities in Karachi, Pakistan. We enrolled young infants (aged 0–59 days) who either presented at a primary health-care clinic or were identified by a community health worker with signs of clinical severe infection. We included infants who were not critically ill and whose family refused admission. We randomly assigned infants to either intramuscular procaine benzylpenicillin and gentamicin once a day for 7 days (reference); oral amoxicillin twice daily and intramuscular gentamicin once a day for 7 days; or intramuscular procaine benzylpenicillin and gentamicin once a day for 2 days followed by oral amoxicillin twice daily for 5 days. The primary outcome was treatment failure within 7 days of enrolment and the primary analysis was per protocol. We judged experimental treatments as efficacious as the reference if the upper bound of the 95% CI for the difference in treatment failure was less than 5·0. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01027429. Findings Between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 26, 2013, 2780 infants were deemed eligible for the trial, of whom 2453 (88%) were enrolled. Because of inadequate clinical follow-up or treatment adherence, 2251 infants were included in the per-protocol analysis. 820 infants (747 per protocol) were assigned the reference treatment of procaine benzylpenicillin and gentamicin, 816 (751 per protocol) were allocated amoxicillin and gentamicin, and 817 (753 per protocol) were assigned procaine benzylpenicillin, gentamicin, and amoxicillin. Treatment failure within 7 days of enrolment was reported in 90 (12%) infants who received procaine benzylpenicillin and gentamicin (reference), 76 (10%) of those given amoxicillin and gentamicin (risk difference with reference −1·9, 95% CI −5·1 to 1·3), and 99 (13%) of those treated with procaine benzylpenicillin, gentamicin, and amoxicillin (risk difference with reference 1·1, −2·3 to 4·5). Interpretation Two simplified antibiotic regimens requiring fewer injections are equivalent to a reference treatment for young infants with signs of clinical severe infection but without signs of critical illness. The use of these simplified regimens has the potential to increase access to treatment for sick young infants who cannot be referred to hospital. Funding The Saving Newborn Lives initiative of Save the Children, through support from the Bill & Melinda Gates, and by WHO and USAID.

Clinical features and induction outcome of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a lower/middle income population: A multi-institutional report from Pakistan

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common cancer of childhood. Some evidence suggests differences in clinical and cytogenetic characteristics of ALL based on geographic and ethnic variations. However, data on ALL characteristics and early outcome of therapy from low/middle‐income countries such as Pakistan are scanty.

Causes and incidence of community-acquired serious infections among young children in south Asia (ANISA): an observational cohort study

Summary Background More than 500 000 neonatal deaths per year result from possible serious bacterial infections (pSBIs), but the causes are largely unknown. We investigated the incidence of community-acquired infections caused by specific organisms among neonates in south Asia. Methods From 2011 to 2014, we identified babies through population-based pregnancy surveillance at five sites in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Babies were visited at home by community health workers up to ten times from age 0 to 59 days. Illness meeting the WHO definition of pSBI and randomly selected healthy babies were referred to study physicians. The primary objective was to estimate proportions of specific infectious causes by blood culture and Custom TaqMan Array Cards molecular assay (Thermo Fisher, Bartlesville, OK, USA) of blood and respiratory samples. Findings 6022 pSBI episodes were identified among 63 114 babies (95·4 per 1000 livebirths). Causes were attributed in 28% of episodes (16% bacterial and 12% viral). Mean incidence of bacterial infections was 13·2 (95% credible interval [CrI] 11·2–15·6) per 1000 livebirths and of viral infections was 10·1 (9·4–11·6) per 1000 livebirths. The leading pathogen was respiratory syncytial virus (5·4, 95% CrI 4·8–6·3 episodes per 1000 livebirths), followed by Ureaplasma spp (2·4, 1·6–3·2 episodes per 1000 livebirths). Among babies who died, causes were attributed to 46% of pSBI episodes, among which 92% were bacterial. 85 (83%) of 102 blood culture isolates were susceptible to penicillin, ampicillin, gentamicin, or a combination of these drugs. Interpretation Non-attribution of a cause in a high proportion of patients suggests that a substantial proportion of pSBI episodes might not have been due to infection. The predominance of bacterial causes among babies who died, however, indicates that appropriate prevention measures and management could substantially affect neonatal mortality. Susceptibility of bacterial isolates to first-line antibiotics emphasises the need for prudent and limited use of newer-generation antibiotics. Furthermore, the predominance of atypical bacteria we found and high incidence of respiratory syncytial virus indicated that changes in management strategies for treatment and prevention are needed. Given the burden of disease, prevention of respiratory syncytial virus would have a notable effect on the overall health system and achievement of Sustainable Development Goal. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population-based rates, timing, and causes of maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country prospective cohort study

Summary Background Modelled mortality estimates have been useful for health programmes in low-income and middle-income countries. However, these estimates are often based on sparse and low-quality data. We aimed to generate high quality data about the burden, timing, and causes of maternal deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Methods In this prospective cohort study done in 11 community-based research sites in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, between July, 2012, and February, 2016, we conducted population-based surveillance of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) to identify pregnancies, which were followed up to birth and 42 days post partum. We used standard operating procedures, data collection instruments, training, and standardisation to harmonise study implementation across sites. Verbal autopsies were done for deaths of all women of reproductive age, neonatal deaths, and stillbirths. Physicians used standardised methods for cause of death assignment. Site-specific rates and proportions were pooled at the regional level using a meta-analysis approach. Findings We identified 278 186 pregnancies and 263 563 births across the study sites, with outcomes ascertained for 269 630 (96·9%) pregnancies, including 8761 (3·2%) that ended in miscarriage or abortion. Maternal mortality ratios in sub-Saharan Africa (351 per 100 000 livebirths, 95% CI 168–732) were similar to those in south Asia (336 per 100 000 livebirths, 247–458), with far greater variability within sites in sub-Saharan Africa. Stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates were approximately two times higher in sites in south Asia than in sub-Saharan Africa (stillbirths: 35·1 per 1000 births, 95% CI 28·5–43·1 vs 17·1 per 1000 births, 12·5–25·8; neonatal mortality: 43·0 per 1000 livebirths, 39·0–47·3 vs 20·1 per 1000 livebirths, 14·6–27·6). 40–45% of pregnancy-related deaths, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths occurred during labour, delivery, and the 24 h postpartum period in both regions. Obstetric haemorrhage, non-obstetric complications, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and pregnancy-related infections accounted for more than three-quarters of maternal deaths and stillbirths. The most common causes of neonatal deaths were perinatal asphyxia (40%, 95% CI 39–42, in south Asia; 34%, 32–36, in sub-Saharan Africa) and severe neonatal infections (35%, 34–36, in south Asia; 37%, 34–39 in sub-Saharan Africa), followed by complications of preterm birth (19%, 18–20, in south Asia; 24%, 22–26 in sub-Saharan Africa). Interpretation These results will contribute to improved global estimates of rates, timing, and causes of maternal and newborn deaths and stillbirths. Our findings imply that programmes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia need to further intensify their efforts to reduce mortality rates, which continue to be high. The focus on improving the quality of maternal intrapartum care and immediate newborn care must be further enhanced. Efforts to address perinatal asphyxia and newborn infections, as well as preterm birth, are critical to achieving survival goals in the Sustainable Development Goals era. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Understanding biological mechanisms underlying adverse birth outcomes in developing countries: protocol for a prospective cohort (AMANHI bio–banking) study

Objectives The AMANHI study aims to seek for biomarkers as predictors of important pregnancy–related outcomes, and establish a biobank in developing countries for future research as new methods and technologies become available. Methods AMANHI is using harmonised protocols to enrol 3000 women in early pregnancies (8–19 weeks of gestation) for population–based follow–up in pregnancy up to 42 days postpartum in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Tanzania, with collection taking place between August 2014 and June 2016. Urine pregnancy tests will be used to confirm reported or suspected pregnancies for screening ultrasound by trained sonographers to accurately date the pregnancy. Trained study field workers will collect very detailed phenotypic and epidemiological data from the pregnant woman and her family at scheduled home visits during pregnancy (enrolment, 24–28 weeks, 32–36 weeks & 38+ weeks) and postpartum (days 0–6 or 42–60). Trained phlebotomists will collect maternal and umbilical blood samples, centrifuge and obtain aliquots of serum, plasma and the buffy coat for storage. They will also measure HbA1C and collect a dried spot sample of whole blood. Maternal urine samples will also be collected and stored, alongside placenta, umbilical cord tissue and membrane samples, which will both be frozen and prepared for histology examination. Maternal and newborn stool (for microbiota) as well as paternal and newborn saliva samples (for DNA extraction) will also be collected. All samples will be stored at –80°C in the biobank in each of the three sites. These samples will be linked to numerous epidemiological and phenotypic data with unique study identification numbers. Importance of the study AMANHI biobank proves that biobanking is feasible to implement in LMICs, but recognises that biobank creation is only the first step in addressing current global challenges.

Development and validation of a simplified algorithm for neonatal gestational age assessment – protocol for the Alliance for Maternal Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) prospective cohort study

Objective The objective of the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) gestational age study is to develop and validate a programmatically feasible and simple approach to accurately assess gestational age of babies after they are born. The study will provide accurate, population–based rates of preterm birth in different settings and quantify the risks of neonatal mortality and morbidity by gestational age and birth weight in five South Asian and sub–Saharan African sites. Methods This study used on–going population–based cohort studies to recruit pregnant women early in pregnancy (<20 weeks) for a dating ultrasound scan. Implementation is harmonised across sites in Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Pakistan with uniform protocols and standard operating procedures. Women whose pregnancies are confirmed to be between 8 to 19 completed weeks of gestation are enrolled into the study. These women are followed up to collect socio–demographic and morbidity data during the pregnancy. When they deliver, trained research assistants visit women within 72 hours to assess the baby for gestational maturity. They assess for neuromuscular and physical characteristics selected from the Ballard and Dubowitz maturation assessment scales. They also measure newborn anthropometry and assess feeding maturity of the babies. Computer machine learning techniques will be used to identify the most parsimonious group of signs that correctly predict gestational age compared to the early ultrasound date (the gold standard). This gestational age will be used to categorize babies into term, late preterm and early preterm groups. Further, the ultrasound–based gestational age will be used to calculate population–based rates of preterm birth. Importance of the study The AMANHI gestational age study will make substantial contribution to improve identification of preterm babies by frontline health workers in low– and middle– income countries using simple evaluations. The study will provide accurate preterm birth estimates. This new information will be crucial to planning and delivery of interventions for improving preterm birth outcomes, particularly in South Asia and sub–Saharan Africa.

Reasons for non-vaccination and incomplete vaccinations among children in Pakistan

BACKGROUND Global immunization efforts have received a boost through the introduction of several new vaccines. These efforts however, are threatened by sub-optimal vaccine coverage, particularly in countries with large birth cohorts. Pakistan has one of the largest birth cohorts in the world, where coverage of routine vaccination remains persistently inadequate. We undertook this study to ascertain reasons for non-vaccination or incomplete vaccination of children less than two years in 8 districts of southern Pakistan. METHODS A cross-sectional survey using WHO recommended rapid coverage assessment technique was conducted in 2014. Using probability proportional to size method, we sampled 8400 households with eligible children (aged 4-12 months). Using a structured questionnaire, mothers or other primary caregivers were interviewed to determine vaccination status of an index child. In case of non-vaccination or incomplete vaccination, respondents were asked for reasons leading to low/no vaccine uptake. RESULTS Based on both vaccination record and recall, only 30.8% of children were fully vaccinated, 46% had an incomplete vaccination status while 23%were non-vaccinated. The most frequently reported reasons for non-vaccination included: mothers/caregivers being unaware of the need for vaccination (35.3%), a fear of side effects (23%), mother/caregiver being too busy (16.6%), distance from vaccination centers (13.8%), and non-availability of either vaccinators or vaccines at vaccination centers (10.7%). Reasons identified for incomplete vaccination were similar, with caregivers being unaware of the need for subsequent doses (27.3%), non-availability of vaccinators or vaccines (17.7%), mother/caregiver being too busy (14.8%), fear of side effects (11.2%), and postponement for another time (8.7%). CONCLUSION Various factors result in non-compliance with vaccination schedules and vaccine refusal within the surveyed communities, ranging from lack of knowledge to non-availability of supplies at vaccination centers. These barriers are best addressed through multi-pronged strategies addressing supply gaps, increasing community awareness and enhancing demand for routine vaccination services.

Burden, timing and causes of maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths in sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia: Protocol for a prospective cohort study

Objectives The AMANHI mortality study aims to use harmonized methods, across eleven sites in eight countries in South Asia and sub–Saharan Africa, to estimate the burden, timing and causes of maternal, fetal and neonatal deaths. It will generate data to help advance the science of cause of death (COD) assignment in developing country settings. Methods This population–based, cohort study is being conducted in the eleven sites where approximately 2 million women of reproductive age are under surveillance to identify and follow–up pregnancies through to six weeks postpartum. All sites are implementing uniform protocols. Verbal autopsies (VAs) are conducted for deaths of pregnant women, newborns or stillbirths to confirm deaths, ascertain timing and collect data on the circumstances around the death to help assign causes. Physicians from the sites are selected and trained to use International Classification of Diseases (ICD) principles to assign CODs from a limited list of programmatically–relevant causes. Where the cause cannot be determined from the VA, physicians assign that option. Every physician who is trained to assign causes of deaths from any of the study countries is tested and accredited before they start COD assignment in AMANHI. Importance of the AMANHI mortality study It is one of the first to generate improved estimates of burden, timing and causes of maternal, fetal and neonatal deaths from empirical data systematically collected in a large prospective cohort of women of reproductive age. AMANHI makes a substantial contribution to global knowledge to inform policies, interventions and investment decisions to reduce these deaths.