Ina Tegen

Sources and distributions of dust aerosols simulated with the GOCART model

The global distribution of dust aerosol is simulated with the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. In this model all topographic lows with bare ground surface are assumed to have accumulated sediments which are potential dust sources. The uplifting of dust particles is expressed as a function of surface wind speed and wetness. The GOCART model is driven by the assimilated meteorological fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) which facilitates direct comparison with observations. The model includes seven size classes of mineral dust ranging from 0.1–6 μm radius. The total annual emission is estimated to be between 1604 and 1960 Tg yr−1 in a 5-year simulation. The model has been evaluated by comparing simulation results with ground-based measurements and satellite data. The evaluation has been performed by comparing surface concentrations, vertical distributions, deposition rates, optical thickness, and size distributions. The comparisons show that the model results generally agree with the observations without the necessity of invoking any contribution from anthropogenic disturbances to soils. However, the model overpredicts the transport of dust from the Asian sources to the North Pacific. This discrepancy is attributed to an overestimate of small particle emission from the Asian sources.

Modeling of mineral dust in the atmosphere: Sources, transport, and optical thickness

A global three-dimensional model of the atmospheric mineral dust cycle is developed for the study of its impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere. The model includes four size classes of minearl dust, whose source distributions are based on the distributions of vegetation, soil texture and soil moisture. Uplift and deposition are parameterized using analyzed winds and rainfall statistics that resolve high-frequency events. Dust transport in the atmosphere is simulated with the tracer transport model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The simulated seasonal variations of dust concentrations show general reasonable agreement with the observed distributions, as do the size distributions at several observing sites. The discrepancies between the simulated and the observed dust concentrations point to regions of significant land surface modification. Monthly distribution of aerosol optical depths are calculated from the distribution of dust particle sizes. The maximum optical depth due to dust is 0.4-0.5 in the seasonal mean. The main uncertainties, about a factor of 3-5, in calculating optical thicknesses arise from the crude resolution of soil particle sizes, from insufficient constraint by the total dust loading in the atmosphere, and from our ignorance about adhesion, agglomeration, uplift, and size distributions of fine dust particles (less than 1 micrometer).

Contribution to the atmospheric mineral aerosol load from land surface modification

An estimation of the contribution of mineral dust from disturbed soils (i.e., soils affected by human activity and/or climate variability) to the total atmospheric mineral aerosol load is presented. A three-dimensional atmospheric dust transport model was used to simulate the distribution of dust optical thickness in response to individual dust sources, which include natural soils known to have been affected by the Saharan/Sahelian boundary shift, cultivation, deforestation, and wind erosion. The distributions extracted from advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) optical thickness retrievals were used to constrain likely source combinations. The results indicate that observed features like the seasonal shift of maximum optical thickness caused by Saharan dust over the Atlantic ocean are best reproduced if disturbed sources contribute 30–50% of the total atmospheric dust loading.

Modeling of particle size distribution and its influence on the radiative properties of mineral dust aerosol

The radiative parameters of mineral aerosols are strongly dependent on particle size. Therefore explicit modeling of particle size distribution is needed to calculate the radiative effects and the climate impact of mineral dust. We describe a parameterization of the global mineral aerosol size distribution in a transport model using eight size classes between 0.1 and 10 μm. The model prescribes the initial size distribution using soil texture data and aerosol size measurements close to the ground. During transport, the size distribution changes as larger particles settle out faster than smaller particles. Results of Mie scattering calculations of radiative parameters (extinction efficiency, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter) of mineral dust are shown at wavelengths between 0.3 and 30 μm for effective particle radii between 0.1 and 10 μm. Also included are radiative properties (reflection, absorption, transmission) calculated for a dust optical thickness of 0.1. Preliminary studies with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), using two particle size modes, show regional changes in radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere as large as +15 W m -2 at solar and +5 W m -2 at thermal wavelengths in the annual mean, indicating that dust forcing is an important factor in the global radiation budget.

Impact of vegetation and preferential source areas on global dust aerosol: Results from a model study

[1] We present a model of the dust cycle that successfully predicts dust emissions as determined by land surface properties, monthly vegetation and snow cover, and 6-hourly surface wind speeds for the years 1982–1993. The model takes account of the role of dry lake beds as preferential source areas for dust emission. The occurrence of these preferential sources is determined by a water routing and storage model. The dust source scheme also explicitly takes into account the role of vegetation type as well as monthly vegetation cover. Dust transport is computed using assimilated winds for the years 1987–1990. Deposition of dust occurs through dry and wet deposition, where subcloud scavenging is calculated using assimilated precipitation fields. Comparison of simulated patterns of atmospheric dust loading with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite absorbing aerosol index shows that the model produces realistic results from daily to interannual timescales. The magnitude of dust deposition agrees well with sediment flux data from marine sites. Emission of submicron dust from preferential source areas are required for the computation of a realistic dust optical thickness. Sensitivity studies show that Asian dust source strengths are particularly sensitive to the seasonality of vegetation cover.

Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations

[1] We define the radiative forcings used in climate simulations with the SI2000 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model. These include temporal variations of well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar irradiance, ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and tropospheric aerosols. Our illustrations focus on the period 1951–2050, but we make the full data sets available for those forcings for which we have earlier data. We illustrate the global response to these forcings for the SI2000 model with specified sea surface temperature and with a simple Q-flux ocean, thus helping to characterize the efficacy of each forcing. The model yields good agreement with observed global temperature change and heat storage in the ocean. This agreement does not yield an improved assessment of climate sensitivity or a confirmation of the net climate forcing because of possible compensations with opposite changes of these quantities. Nevertheless, the results imply that observed global temperature change during the past 50 years is primarily a response to radiative forcings. It is also inferred that the planet is now out of radiation balance by 0.5 to 1 W/m 2 and that additional global warming of about 0.5� C is already ‘‘in the pipeline.’’ INDEX TERMS: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (4203); 1650 Global Change: Solar variability;

Tropospheric sulfur simulation and sulfate direct radiative forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model

Global simulations of tropospheric sulfur are performed in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and used to calculate anthropogenic sulfate direct radiative forcing. Prognostic species are in-cloud oxidant H2O2, dimethylsulfide (DMS), methanesulfonic acid (MSA), SO2 and sulfate. Compared with most previous models (except others with prognostic H2O2), this model has relatively high anthropogenic SO2 and sulfate burden. We show that this is due partly to the depletion of the prognostic H2O2 and that moist convection delivers significant levels of SO2 to the free troposphere in polluted regions. Model agreement with surface observations is not remarkably different from previous studies. Following some previous studies, we propose that an additional in-cloud or heterogeneous oxidant is likely to improve the simulation near the surface. Our DMS source is lower than sources in previous studies, and sulfur values in remote regions are generally lower than those observed. Because of the high flux of SO2 to the free troposphere and the relatively low natural source, our model indicates a larger global anthropogenic contribution to the sulfate burden (77%) than was estimated by previous global models. Additional high-altitude observations of the sulfur species are needed for model validation and resolution of this issue. Direct radiative forcing calculations give an annual average anthropogenic sulfate forcing of −0.67 W/m2. We compare the radiative forcings due to online (hourly varying) versus offline (monthly average) sulfate and find little difference on a global average, but we do find differences as great as 10% in some regions. Thus, for example, over some polluted continental regions the forcing due to offline sulfate exceeds that of online sulfate, while over some oceanic regions the online sulfate forcing is larger. We show that these patterns are probably related to the correlation between clouds and sulfate, with positive correlations occuring over some polluted continental regions and negative correlations over high-latitude oceanic regions.

A new Saharan dust source activation frequency map derived from MSG-SEVIRI IR-channels

We present a new dust source area map for the Sahara and Sahel region, derived from the spatiotemporal variability of composite images of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) using the 8.7, 10.8 and 12.0 μm wavelength channels for March 2006–February 2007. Detected dust events have been compared to measured aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and horizontal visibility observations. Furthermore the monthly source area map has been compared with the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aerosol index (AI). A spatial shift of the derived frequency patterns and the local maxima of AI-values can be explained by wind-transport of airborne dust implicitly included in the AI signal. To illustrate the sensitivity of a regional model using the new dust source mask, we present a case study analysis that shows an improvement in reproducing aerosol optical thickness in comparison to the original dust source parameterization.

Modeling the mineral dust aerosol cycle in the climate system

Abstract Soil dust aerosol is an important factor of the climatic system. In order to evaluate the different aspects of the climatic effects of dust, estimates of its highly variable atmospheric distribution need to be computed by transport models. Such models also provide important means of evaluating the processes that govern changes in dustiness during different climatic periods. While models of the modern dust cycle are currently capable of simulating first-order patterns of its global distribution, the parameterization of dust emission in these models is still crude, since input information about soil properties and wind events cannot be resolved at a global scale. Regional models could be useful for evaluating emission parameterizations, as well as dust transport and depositional processes close to source regions. No single existing data set fully describes all aspects of the dust cycle. Validation of modeled dust distributions must therefore include comparisons with different types of observational data. While the compilation of such observational data sets is crucial for model development, model results can, in turn, provide guidance for new measurements of dust properties, which will be useful for future investigation of the dust cycle and its climatic effects.

Forcings and chaos in interannual to decadal climate change

We investigate the roles of climate forcings and chaos (unforced variability) in climate change via ensembles of climate simulations in which we add forcings one by one. The experiments suggest that most interannual climate variability in the period 1979–1996 at middle and high latitudes is chaotic. But observed SST anomalies, which themselves are partly forced and partly chaotic, account for much of the climate variability at low latitudes and a small portion of the variability at high latitudes. Both a natural radiative forcing (volcanic aerosols) and an anthropogenic forcing (ozone depletion) leave clear signatures in the simulated climate change that are identified in observations. Pinatubo aerosols warm the stratosphere and cool the surface globally, causing a tendency for regional surface cooling. Ozone depletion cools the lower stratosphere, troposphere and surface, steepening the temperature lapse rate in the troposphere. Solar irradiance effects are small, but our model is inadequate to fully explore this forcing. Well-mixed anthropogenic greenhouse gases cause a large surface wanning that, over the 17 years, approximately offsets cooling by the other three mechanisms. Thus the net calculated effect of all measured radiative forcings is approximately zero surface temperature trend and zero heat storage in the ocean for the period 1979–1996. Finally, in addition to the four measured radiative forcings, we add an initial (1979) disequilibrium forcing of +0.65 W/m2. This forcing yields a global surface warming of about 0.2°C over 1979–1996, close to observations, and measurable heat storage in the ocean. We argue that the results represent evidence of a planetary radiative imbalance of at least 0.5° W/m2; this disequilibrium presumably represents unrealized wanning due to changes of atmospheric composition prior to 1979. One implication of the disequilibrium forcing is an expectation of new record global temperatures in the next few years. The best opportunity for observational confirmation of the disequilibrium is measurement of ocean temperatures adequate to define heat storage.