Inder S. Anand

The Seattle Heart Failure Model: Prediction of Survival in Heart Failure

Background— Heart failure has an annual mortality rate ranging from 5% to 75%. The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a multivariate risk model to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival in heart failure patients with the use of easily obtainable characteristics relating to clinical status, therapy (pharmacological as well as devices), and laboratory parameters. Methods and Results— The Seattle Heart Failure Model was derived in a cohort of 1125 heart failure patients with the use of a multivariate Cox model. For medications and devices not available in the derivation database, hazard ratios were estimated from published literature. The model was prospectively validated in 5 additional cohorts totaling 9942 heart failure patients and 17 307 person-years of follow-up. The accuracy of the model was excellent, with predicted versus actual 1-year survival rates of 73.4% versus 74.3% in the derivation cohort and 90.5% versus 88.5%, 86.5% versus 86.5%, 83.8% versus 83.3%, 90.9% versus 91.0%, and 89.6% versus 86.7% in the 5 validation cohorts. For the lowest score, the 2-year survival was 92.8% compared with 88.7%, 77.8%, 58.1%, 29.5%, and 10.8% for scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The overall receiver operating characteristic area under the curve was 0.729 (95% CI, 0.714 to 0.744). The model also allowed estimation of the benefit of adding medications or devices to an individual patients therapeutic regimen. Conclusions— The Seattle Heart Failure Model provides an accurate estimate of 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival with the use of easily obtained clinical, pharmacological, device, and laboratory characteristics.

Changes in Brain Natriuretic Peptide and Norepinephrine Over Time and Mortality and Morbidity in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial (Val-HeFT)

Background—Neurohormones are considered markers of heart failure progression. We examined whether changes in brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and norepinephrine (NE) over time are associated with corresponding changes in mortality and morbidity in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial. Methods and Results—Plasma BNP and NE were measured before randomization and during follow-up in ≈4300 patients in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial. The relation between baseline BNP and NE and all-cause mortality and first morbid event (M&M) was analyzed in subgroups, with values above and below the median, and by quartiles. The change and percent change from baseline to 4 and 12 months in BNP and NE were also analyzed by quartiles for subsequent M&M. Risk ratios for M&M were calculated using a Cox proportional hazard model. Risk ratio of M&M for patients with baseline BNP or NE above the median was significantly higher than that for patients with values below the median. Baseline BNP and NE in quartiles also showed a quartile-dependent increase in M&M. BNP had a stronger association with M&M than NE. Patients with the greatest percent decrease in BNP and NE from baseline to 4 and 12 months had the lowest whereas patients with greatest percent increase in BNP and NE had the highest M&M. Conclusions—Not only are plasma BNP and NE important predictors of heart failure M&M, but changes in these neurohormones over time are associated with corresponding changes in M&M. These data further reinforce their role as significant surrogate markers in HF and underscore the importance of including their measurement in HF trials.

Spironolactone for Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND Mineralocorticoid-receptor antagonists improve the prognosis for patients with heart failure and a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. We evaluated the effects of spironolactone in patients with heart failure and a preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. METHODS In this randomized, double-blind trial, we assigned 3445 patients with symptomatic heart failure and a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45% or more to receive either spironolactone (15 to 45 mg daily) or placebo. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, aborted cardiac arrest, or hospitalization for the management of heart failure. RESULTS With a mean follow-up of 3.3 years, the primary outcome occurred in 320 of 1722 patients in the spironolactone group (18.6%) and 351 of 1723 patients in the placebo group (20.4%) (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77 to 1.04; P=0.14). Of the components of the primary outcome, only hospitalization for heart failure had a significantly lower incidence in the spironolactone group than in the placebo group (206 patients [12.0%] vs. 245 patients [14.2%]; hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.99, P=0.04). Neither total deaths nor hospitalizations for any reason were significantly reduced by spironolactone. Treatment with spironolactone was associated with increased serum creatinine levels and a doubling of the rate of hyperkalemia (18.7%, vs. 9.1% in the placebo group) but reduced hypokalemia. With frequent monitoring, there were no significant differences in the incidence of serious adverse events, a serum creatinine level of 3.0 mg per deciliter (265 μmol per liter) or higher, or dialysis. CONCLUSIONS In patients with heart failure and a preserved ejection fraction, treatment with spironolactone did not significantly reduce the incidence of the primary composite outcome of death from cardiovascular causes, aborted cardiac arrest, or hospitalization for the management of heart failure. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; TOPCAT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00094302.).

Prognostic value of very low plasma concentrations of troponin T in patients with stable chronic heart failure

Background— Circulating cardiac troponin T, a marker of cardiomyocyte injury, predicts adverse outcome in patients with heart failure (HF) but is detectable in only a small fraction of those with chronic stable HF. We assessed the prognostic value of circulating cardiac troponin T in patients with stable chronic HF with a traditional (cTnT) and a new precommercial highly sensitive assay (hsTnT). Methods and Results— Plasma troponin T was measured in 4053 patients with chronic HF enrolled in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial (Val-HeFT). Troponin T was detectable in 10.4% of the population with the cTnT assay (detection limit ≤0.01 ng/mL) compared with 92.0% with the new hsTnT assay (≤0.001 ng/mL). Patients with cTnT elevation or with hsTnT above the median (0.012 ng/mL) had more severe HF and worse outcome. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for clinical risk factors, cTnT was associated with death (780 events; hazard ratio=2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.72 to 2.52; P<0.0001) and first hospitalization for HF (655 events; hazard ratio=1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.25 to 1.93; P<0.0001). HsTnT was associated with the risk of death in unadjusted analysis for deciles of concentrations and in multivariable models (hazard ratio=1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.07 for increments of 0.01 ng/mL; P<0.0001). Addition of hsTnT to well-calibrated models adjusted for clinical risk factors, with or without brain natriuretic peptide, significantly improved prognostic discrimination (C-index, P<0.0001 for both outcomes). Conclusions— In this large population of patients with HF, detectable cTnT predicts adverse outcomes in chronic HF. By the highly sensitive assay, troponin T retains a prognostic value at previously undetectable concentrations.

Mid-Region Pro-Hormone Markers for Diagnosis and Prognosis in Acute Dyspnea: Results From the BACH (Biomarkers in Acute Heart Failure) Trial

OBJECTIVES Our purpose was to assess the diagnostic utility of mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) for the diagnosis of acute heart failure (AHF) and the prognostic value of mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) in patients with AHF. BACKGROUND There are some caveats and limitations to natriuretic peptide testing in the acute dyspneic patient. METHODS The BACH (Biomarkers in Acute Heart Failure) trial was a prospective, 15-center, international study of 1,641 patients presenting to the emergency department with dyspnea. A noninferiority test of MR-proANP versus B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) for diagnosis of AHF and a superiority test of MR-proADM versus BNP for 90-day survival were conducted. Other end points were exploratory. RESULTS MR-proANP (> or =120 pmol/l) proved noninferior to BNP (> or =100 pg/ml) for the diagnosis of AHF (accuracy difference 0.9%). In tests of secondary diagnostic objectives, MR-proANP levels added to the utility of BNP levels in patients with intermediate BNP values and with obesity but not in renal insufficiency, the elderly, or patients with edema. Using cut-off values from receiver-operating characteristic analysis, the accuracy to predict 90-day survival of heart failure patients was 73% (95% confidence interval: 70% to 77%) for MR-proADM and 62% (95% confidence interval: 58% to 66%) for BNP (difference p < 0.001). In adjusted multivariable Cox regression, MR-proADM, but not BNP, carried independent prognostic value (p < 0.001). Results were consistent using NT-proBNP instead of BNP (p < 0.001). None of the biomarkers was able to predict rehospitalization or visits to the emergency department with clinical relevance. CONCLUSIONS MR-proANP is as useful as BNP for AHF diagnosis in dyspneic patients and may provide additional clinical utility when BNP is difficult to interpret. MR-proADM identifies patients with high 90-day mortality risk and adds prognostic value to BNP. (Biomarkers in Acute Heart Failure [BACH]; NCT00537628).

Anemia and Its Relationship to Clinical Outcome in Heart Failure

Background—Anemia is often observed in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), but its implications for patient outcomes are not well understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between anemia, severity of CHF, and clinical outcomes. Methods and Results—Hemoglobin concentration (Hb) was measured in 912 subjects with CHF enrolled in the Randomized Etanercept North American Strategy to Study Antagonism of Cytokines (RENAISSANCE) trial. In a subgroup of 69 subjects, cardiac MRI was performed at randomization and 24 weeks later. Anemia (Hb ≤12.0 g/dL) was present in 12% of subjects. Cox regression analysis indicated that for every 1-g/dL-higher baseline Hb, the risk of mortality was 15.8% lower (P =0.0009) and the risk of mortality or hospitalization for heart failure was 14.2% lower (P >0.0001). Greater CHF severity was associated with significantly lower Hb concentrations. An increase in Hb over time was associated with a decrease in left ventricular mass and lower mortality, whereas a decrease in Hb over time was associated with an increase in left ventricular mass and higher mortality. In multivariate analysis, anemia remained a significant, independent predictor of death or hospitalization for heart failure, with both outcomes being significantly higher in all NYHA classes. Conclusions—Anemia is frequently present in patients with CHF. Lower Hb is associated with greater disease severity, a greater left ventricular mass index, and higher hospitalization and mortality rates.

C-Reactive Protein in Heart Failure Prognostic Value and the Effect of Valsartan

Background—The role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in heart failure is not well studied. We assessed the prognostic value of CRP in patients randomized in Val-HeFT (Valsartan Heart Failure Trial) and studied changes in CRP that were associated with valsartan. Methods and Results—Characteristics of patients with baseline CRP levels above and below the median value were compared. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the relationship of CRP to mortality and morbidity. Interactions were tested to determine whether differences in CRP changes from baseline to 4 and 12 months between groups randomly assigned to valsartan or placebo depended on baseline ACE inhibitor use. Median plasma CRP was 3.23 mg/L (interquartile range 1.42 to 7.56 mg/L), which is higher than in the general population. Patients with CRP above the median had features of more severe heart failure than those with CRP levels below the median. The cumulative likelihood of death and first morbid event increased with increasing quartile of CRP. Relative to the lowest CRP quartile, the risk of mortality (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.9) and first morbid event (hazard ratio 1.53, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.84) was increased in the highest CRP quartile in multivariable models. CRP added incremental prognostic information to that provided by brain natriuretic peptide alone. CRP did not change significantly over time in the placebo group; however, after 12 months, valsartan was associated with a decrease in CRP in patients not receiving ACE inhibitors but not in those receiving ACE inhibitors at 12 months. Conclusions—CRP is increased in heart failure. Higher levels are associated with features of more severe heart failure and are independently associated with mortality and morbidity. The ability of treatments to reduce CRP levels and the prognostic importance of reducing CRP require further study.

Safety and Feasibility of Autologous Myoblast Transplantation in Patients With Ischemic Cardiomyopathy Four-Year Follow-Up

Background—Successful autologous skeletal myoblast transplantation into infarcted myocardium in a variety of animal models has demonstrated improvement in cardiac function. We evaluated the safety and feasibility of transplanting autologous myoblasts into infarcted myocardium of patients undergoing concurrent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. In addition, we sought to gain preliminary information on graft survival and any associated changes in cardiac function. Methods and Results—Thirty patients with a history of ischemic cardiomyopathy participated in a phase I, nonrandomized, multicenter pilot study of autologous skeletal myoblast transplantation concurrent with CABG or LVAD implantation. Twenty-four patients with a history of previous myocardial infarction and a left ventricular ejection fraction <40% were enrolled in the CABG arm. In a second arm, 6 patients underwent LVAD implantation as a bridge to heart transplantation, and patients donated their explanted native hearts for testing at the time of heart transplantation. Myoblasts were successfully transplanted in all patients without any acute injection-related complications or significant long-term, unexpected adverse events. Follow-up positron emission tomography scans showed new areas of glucose uptake within the infarct scar in CABG patients. Echocardiography measured an average change in left ventricular ejection fraction from 28% to 35% at 1 year and of 36% at 2 years. Histological evaluation in 4 of 6 patients who underwent heart transplantation documented survival and engraftment of the skeletal myoblasts within the infarcted myocardium. Conclusions—These results demonstrate the survival, feasibility, and safety of autologous myoblast transplantation and suggest that this modality offers a potential therapeutic treatment for end-stage heart disease.

Long-term effects of darusentan on left-ventricular remodelling and clinical outcomes in the EndothelinA Receptor Antagonist Trial in Heart Failure (EARTH): randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND Endothelin-receptor blockade provides haemodynamic benefit in experimental and clinical heart failure. We aimed to measure the effects of long-term endothelin-blockade on left-ventricular (LV) remodelling and clinical outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure. METHODS 642 patients with chronic heart failure were assigned the oral endothelin(A)-antagonist darusentan at 10, 25, 50, 100, or 300 mg daily or placebo for 24 weeks in addition to standard therapy in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. In the 50-300 mg groups, darusentan was uptitrated over 6 weeks. Primary endpoint was change in LV end-systolic volume (LVESV) at 24 weeks from baseline, measured by MRI. All patients for whom assessable MRI scans were available at baseline and follow-up were included in the analysis. FINDINGS Darusentan was well tolerated. LVESV could be assessed in 485 (76%) patients with paired MRI data at baseline and 6 months. The change in LVESV was not significantly different from that with placebo at any dose (mean difference from placebo 1.27 mL [95% CI -9.9 to 12.4] with 10 mg dose, -1.84 mL [-13.0 to 9.3] with 25 mg, -5.68 mL [-16.9 to 5.6] with 50 mg, -4.05 mL [-15.5 to 7.4] with 100 mg, and -4.34 mL [-15.7 to 7.0] with 300 mg). Heart failure worsened in 71 (11.1%) patients, and 30 (4.7%) died during the study with no difference between groups. INTERPRETATION Endothelin(A) blockade with darusentan did not improve cardiac remodelling or clinical symptoms or outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure receiving an angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor, beta blocker, or aldosterone antagonist. Thus, endothelin(A) blockade is unlikely to be useful as an add-on treatment in such patients.

Effect of the Calcium Antagonist Felodipine as Supplementary Vasodilator Therapy in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure Treated With Enalapril V-HeFT III

BACKGROUND Despite therapy with diuretics, ACE inhibitors and digoxin morbidity and mortality in heart failure remain high and might respond favorably to an additional vasodilator. METHODS AND RESULTS Male patients (n=450) with chronic heart failure (cardiac dysfunction and impaired exercise performance) on optimal current therapy (97% enalapril, 89% diuretics) were randomly assigned to double-blind treatment with felodipine extended release (5 mg BID) or placebo for 3 to 39 months (average, 18 months). Felodipine significantly reduced blood pressure and, at 3 months, increased ejection fraction (2.1% versus -0.1% units in the placebo group, P=.001) and reduced plasma atrial natriuretic peptide levels (-2.9 versus 26.9 pg/mL in the placebo group, P=.01) but did not improve exercise tolerance, quality of life, or the need for hospitalization. During long-term follow-up, the favorable effects on ejection fraction and atrial peptide did not persist, but felodipine prevented worsening exercise tolerance and quality of life. In the felodipine and placebo groups, mortality (13.8% versus 12.8%, respectively) and hospitalization (43% versus 42%) rates were similar, and a higher incidence of peripheral edema was the only apparent side effect of felodipine therapy. CONCLUSIONS Felodipine exerts a well-tolerated additional sustained vasodilator effect in patients with heart failure treated with enalapril, but the only possible long-term benefit was a trend for better exercise tolerance and less depression of quality of life in the second year of treatment. The drug appears to be safe but not clearly efficacious in patients with heart failure.